RC: ‘Faux’ 2019 Computer Simulated NFL Season (Weeks 1-3)
Just for ‘fun’ and to try to get a feel for the early over-under win total bets in the NFL, NFL Draft guru Xavier Cromartie and I run a computer simulated season every summer to compare and contrast where we see certain teams at, and the league overall, in the upcoming season.
Obviously, this is a ‘way too early’ look at the season because the moment we publish this, an elite QB goes down with an injury and changes the entire landscape for so many teams. We’re running a simulation in a ‘safe environment’ on injuries, etc., so this is a bit of a Utopian look.
We’ll release three weeks of results and quick commentary on it each day and walk through our playoffs and eventual Super Bowl winner. Neither of us knows what the other person simulated/projected until we have our entire ‘faux’ season locked in and written up.
So, here we go with the ‘Faux’ 2019 season for the next 10 days…
-- There are only three teams to start out 3-0, and they are going to shock you to varying degrees…shock who they are, especially the last team I’ll list. All made more shocking by what teams aren’t 3-0 compared to what teams are. But I think the logic will make sense on these 3-0 teams…
Green Bay (3-0) – You’re probably not shocked by Green Bay being 3-0, but when you consider it starts with a Week 1 season opener on TNF AT Chicago…you might. It’s the opposite reasoning why I liked Chicago (+8) to upset GB last Week 1/opener (and they had them beat and blew it last second, but did cover) – I think the Packers lie in wait under new management…waiting to spring/strike like a cobra on a semi-overconfident Chicago team that has lost its main piece (Vic Fangio) and overall downgraded its roster in the offseason. If they play Chicago Week 2-3-4, etc., at Chicago…Bears for the win for me. This is just a perfect storm spot upset…and Green Bay has a gift of a schedule set up all season.
Don’t worry about (1-2) Chicago…they’re about to go on a nice win streak.
San Francisco (3-0) – Non-49ers’ fans are already rolling their eyes. Oh, RC’s riding the other team EVERYONE likes this year (San Fran is a public favorite as are the Packers). What do you want me to do? The 49ers get two road games right off the bat Weeks 1-2, but against Tampa Bay and Cincy. I’ll take the Niners. Week 3, their home opener against the Steelers. I could see 1-2, 2-1…but the computer gives slight edges the first three weeks to the 49ers facing three non-playoff teams from 2018 and two with head coaching changes.
Buffalo (3-0) – Now, I have your attention... You didn’t see this one coming! Hey, you know I hate Josh Allen, but…at NYJ, at NYG, and hosting Cincy? Possibly three of the worst teams in the league. They for sure will go 2-1 if not 3-0 just off their defense.
-- The 0-3 teams to start won’t throw you as much: MIA, NYJ, CIN, OAK, NYG.
-- A couple of surprise 1-2 teams out of the gates…NO, CHI, and IND.
The Saints seem to start slowly in recent seasons (remember them losing to TB as 10+ point favorites last opening day? Then almost losing at home to CLE the next week?)
BUF … 3 - 0 = 1.000
NE …. 2 - 1 = 0.667
MIA … 0 - 3 = 0.000
NYJ … 0 - 3 = 0.000
PIT … 2 - 1 = 0.667
BAL … 2 - 1 = 0.667
CLE … 2 - 1 = 0.667
CIN … 0 - 3 = 0.000
JAC … 2 - 1 = 0.667
HOU … 2 - 1 = 0.667
TEN … 1 - 2 = 0.333
IND … 1 - 2 = 0.333
KC …. 2 - 1 = 0.667
LAC … 2 - 1 = 0.667
DEN … 2 - 1 = 0.667
OAK … 0 - 3 = 0.000
PHI … 2 - 1 = 0.667
DAL … 2 - 1 = 0.667
WAS … 1 - 2 = 0.333
NYG … 0 - 3 = 0.000
GB …. 3 - 0 = 1.000
CHI … 1 - 2 = 0.333
MIN … 1 - 2 = 0.333
DET … 1 - 2 = 0.333
ATL … 2 - 1 = 0.667
NO …. 1 - 2 = 0.333
CAR … 1 - 2 = 0.333
TB …. 1 - 2 = 0.333
SF …. 3 - 0 = 1.000
LAR … 2 - 1 = 0.667
SEA … 2 - 1 = 0.667
ARI … 2 - 1 = 0.667
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