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REWIND -- 2018/19 Divisional Playoff Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Colts v. Chiefs

Date:
April 30, 2019 8:12 PM
April 30, 2019 11:44 PM

I'm going back through some team notes from games last season, and in the following/current year I like to pick a few teams and post all their game recaps in order and make a few, quick new year/season observations -- and it gives us some spring/summer reading material when football news is slow.

The first team I selected to post from 2018 season -- the Kansas City Chiefs. The team responsible for the most successful regular season fantasy football we've had as a company. Let's walk down memory lane week-by week (one per day) and re-live it because it was great, culminating with that Monday Night Football game vs. the Rams...and then we kind slid from there.

Now, enjoy the playoff game where the Chiefs hosted the Colts in terrible weather conditions and just rolled through Indy and made Andrew Luck look silly.

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2018/19 Divisional Playoff Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Colts v. Chiefs

**All the new hire/coaching moves analysis? It will be forthcoming. Throughout January and into February, I do a deep-dive analysis of the coaches and their situation – and we got a lot of new, fresh ones to talk about. I like to wait to see all the coordinators get in place and the other teams to wrap up, etc. We’ll get to all of them in-depth for fantasy and for handicapping 2019+.

In the confidence pick ‘em pool, where we had to submit our picks on Tuesday, KC minus the points was my top play among a group games that didn’t totally standout to me. The Computer gave KC an edge because Indy had played such a weak schedule to get to where they were at…that it would be too much for this Indy train to keep rolling – that they had not faced anything close to a Mahomes-esque/high-end QB this season.

Then we started the group chat about our picks and the weather forecast started turning nasty and the guys made a lot of good points supporting an Indy upset, then I started worrying Andy Reid was going to Andy Reid this all up…and by Saturday noon, I hated my top confidence pick. No confidence in snow covered Kansas City.

A quick 14-0 KC lead later, after 9 minutes of play and Andrew Luck incapable of completing a pass…and I felt great.

But then I remembered – this is Andy Reid…like the show ‘This is Us’, only even worse. This is where Andy Reid has two weeks off tp prepare, has great offensive plays and drives to start games and then pulls back on the reigns like the worst jockey at the harness racing track (sorry, I grew up near Saratoga). Last year, 21-3 KC over Tennessee at the half in a similar fashion – final score 22-21 Titans.

Fortunately, Andrew Luck was still forward pass challenged until much (too) later in the game and KC took a 17-0 lead and won 14-13 from there…31-13 KC, in a pretty easy-breezy win.

The Colts had a nice season. We’ll see what happens when they have KC, LAC, NO, PITT on the road in 2019.

The Chiefs go to face the Patriots in the AFC Finals…the team that has crushed their soul a thousand deaths the past few seasons. I have a feeling the Pats will eat their soul one more time this Sunday. It’s about Belichick v. Reid for me, not St. Patrick vs. fading Brady (who looked awesome Sunday).

2019 April Notes: And Belichick did thump Andy Reid one more time... Anyone remember how bad Andrew Luck was in this game? No? OK.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- C.J. Anderson is now the best RB on the Rams and leading them to the Super Bowl…where he may meet former 3rd-string RB, now KC best RB Damien Williams (25-129-1, 5-25-0/6).

Williams seemed like a throwaway free agent signing in 2018, a hedge in case Spencer Ware couldn’t come back 100%. Well…now he’s better than Kareem Hunt and is ‘the man’.

What does this mean for 2019? Well, it means Spencer Ware is not as valuable/needed…and probably cancels them both out. Remember, when Hunt went down…it was Ware, Williams that KC turned to. Ware will play a role upon return and be co-starter (if re-signed). Ware would be, and was, doing these same things as Williams if he were healthy.

Ware-Williams could be great all they want and even lead KC to a title, and the Chiefs will still either spend money on a free agent RB or draft one top 100 to be their lead guy. They never intended Ware-Williams to matter like this, nor did the media, so KC will push them aside, thank them for their service and go put energy in some other RB in 2019.

 2019 April Notes: Cue the Carlos Hyde signing.

-- Like I was saying about Marlon Mack (9-46-0, 0-0-0/1) – you love him when he has the big game, but then the moment he has a clunker (as he does more than not), your love meter crashes on him. You don’t really trust him…do you?

You shouldn’t. A limited talent RB…he’s fine but not a future star. Shockingly, to me, barely involved in the passing game (no targets here) all season. This season/our lofty preseason rankings for Mack was a one-time event -- as I preached back in the summer. He had no competition. Jordan Wilkins shouldn’t be in the NFL. Nyheim Hines is a dime-a-dozen. The Colts will draft another RB or sign one in free agency to go with Mack or replace him…and then the Mack RB2 value you fear is an RB1 every time he has a good game…well, it will fall to RB4 and you’re left holding the bag in a few months.

TRADE MARLON MACK ‘HIGH’ ASAP IN DYNASTY.

Bad field conditions. Andrew Luck couldn’t complete a pass to save his life early on. Guess how many simple throws to the RB happened to help get things going? Two targets to RBs all game…none of them completed! I still don’t understand what they were doing with their RBs all season right down to their final game.

 2019 April Notes: The Colts just signed...Spencer Ware, who is connected to the Colts GM from his KC days.

-- Several people have asked me this week…what happened to Andrew Luck (19-36 for 203 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)? Why did he look so bad against this KC defense that’s been so ‘giving’? My answer…I don’t know.

It should have been a huge game, or at least one he could complete a pass in within the first 20-30 minutes of play. I don’t know if it was the weather…or the moment…or trying to out-do Mahomes? It’s not like the KC defense has stopped people much.

I noted earlier in the week, Luck’s weak 2018 performance when getting sacked 2 or more times in a game this season…and he was blessed not to have been sacked much at all, but also blessed by the schedule gods that he hadn’t faced top 10-15 pass rush/sack teams. Well, KC was #1 in the league in sacks in 2018. Luck was sacked 3 times here.

I don’t think we’ll ever know…just chalk it up to a bad game. It happens. Luck is good, but overrated. He’s a B+/A- seen as an A++ by the media since he was coming out of Stanford. They expected him to be doing what Mahomes is…but it just never really happened. Luck was like the last great QB prospect before the tsunami of new-era talent hit the league. There are just several QBs arriving from college better than Luck ever was, and that’s not saying Luck is bad. He used to be the big fish in a small pond…now the NFL pond is littered with good-great QBs.

I like Luck and he’s in a great position where he kinda is bigger than the team/coaches, so he gets to do what he wants…not suppressed like Goff was early in his career, or Trubisky getting coddled, or Foles getting dissed, etc.

I like Luck but I got many QBs who I like better.

-- People asked ‘what was wrong with Luck’ in this game, but Patrick Mahomes (27-41 for 278 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 3-8-1) wasn’t a statistical stud either. Sacked 4 times, no TD passes, and under 300 yards passing.

Can I just mention, for what it is worth…this makes 4 games in a row for Mahomes under 300 yards passing.

Under 300 yards passing in five of his last 6 games.

Under 300 yards passing in six of his last 8 games.

Andy Reid sees something working, something special…and immediately finds a way to reel it in/make it a decoy. Reid possesses the most jaw-dropping, ‘showtime’ QB to play the game and immediately increases the run and screen pass game…once Kareem Hunt is gone.

Does this make sense to anyone?

When the Chiefs get beat by the Patriots because of ‘coaching’ this week…someone should question whether Andy Reid is a massive problem and not the hero of the Mahomes story, as they’ve tried to craft.

No one will (but smart KC fans locally).

 2019 April Notes: I rest my case...after you saw the Chiefs fall to New England, again.

-- Tyreek Hill (1-36-1, 8-72-0/13) got a jet sweep early and ran it for a 36-yard TD…as he is want to do.

Did KC go back to dangerous Tyreek for maybe one more run to see what happened? Nope.

When the Chiefs get beat by the Patriots because of ‘coaching’ this week…someone should question whether Andy Reid is a massive problem and not the hero of the Tyreek story, as they’ve tried to craft.

No one will (except smart KC fans locally).

 2019 April Notes: Probably won't have to worry about Tyreek's under-usage in KC much longer...

-- Sammy Watkins has played 9 games this season with 2 or more targets (missed several games with injury). His numbers in those games…

7.7 FF PPG/12.0 PPR PPG on 4.3 rec., (5.8 targets), 57.2 yards, 0.33 TDs per game. WR2 work.

Watkins didn’t show me much, per usual…but he’s here…with Mahomes…and dumped a lot of money on, so he’s a WR2 threat for 2019, and an injury threat always.

-- Chiefs UDFA WR Greg Dieter (1-11-0/1) did get a target in a key spot, though. No one saw that coming? So smart by Andy Reid.

Chris Conley, no catches…Demarcus Robinson, no targets

When the Chiefs get beat by the Patriots because of ‘coaching’ this week…someone should question whether Andy Reid is a massive problem and not the hero of the Chiefs story, as they’ve tried to craft.

No one will (but smart KC fans locally).

 2019 April Notes: It was not a repeat-typo, but a repeat for emphasis...correctly so.

-- Eric Ebron (5-51-0/9) scored 13 TDs this season. He didn’t have 13 TDs his first 4 seasons in the NFL. I have no idea how this happened.

Will it happen again in 2019? Maybe. I honestly don’t know how it happened this year. He caught less than 60% of his targets this season…still fought the ball too much. I guess with all the injuries at WR-TE, this happened? I don’t know. I don’t get it. I’d like to have a clever explanation…but I don’t.

-- Who is Charvarius Ward (4 tackles, 4 PDs) and how did he register 4 PDs against Andrew Luck in a playoff game? He also played the most snaps of any defensive player for KC in this game.

Ward’s last 3 games…7.0 tackles, 2.3 PDs per game. Sudden starter and making an impact.

6’1”/198 UDFA CB out of Middle Tennessee State.

4.44 40-time, 7.52 three-cone

37.5” vertical, 11’0” broad jump

He was a Dallas Cowboy this preseason…and KC traded for him, quietly, before September.

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-- College Football Metrics is getting into high gear as the non-QB scouting reports begin and the deeper analysis for Dynasty Rookie Drafts unfurls. We’ll statistically scout/grade 600+ prospects, deeper study 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.

-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Best Ball rankings for 2019 coming in March. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>