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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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REWIND -- 2018 Week 14 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Panthers v. Browns

May 14, 2019 6:04 PM
May 15, 2019 5:47 PM

I'm going back through some team notes from games last season, and in the following/current year I like to pick a few teams and post all their game recaps in order and make a few, quick new year/season observations -- and it gives us some spring/summer reading material when football news is slow.

The first team I selected to post from 2018 season -- the Kansas City Chiefs (see all on FFM). The second team we're going to walk through -- the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are wildly interesting...now. It's interesting to go back and walk through the season, because it was so sad to start...because they almost beat PIT-NO right out of the gates, but Hue Hue'd it all up and his rightful punishment was soon to come. Then, just when it looked like they would fall with lovable sociopath Gregg Williams at the interim helm...the Browns became a real team, and almost got themselves into the playoffs -- they would have won 10 games and made the playoffs had the Browns canned Hue after the 2017 season and started Baker from day-one, as I probably pointed out over/under a hundred times in the game recaps all last season. So, let's re-look at the Cleveland Browns' wild 2018 campaign.

Now, enjoy the game where the Browns halted any chance the Panthers had to sneak into the playoffs. This was the first win of three in-a-row, a stretch that set off Browns-mania and playing in an actual important Week 17 game.


2018 Week 14 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Panthers v. Browns

It pains me to see how close the Cleveland Browns were to outright winning the AFC North this season. They still have a shot at it, but it’s a long shot…and it should have even been this close. So many missed opportunities, so many coaching blunders by ‘Wonder Hue’, the coaching prodigy, who then joined the Bengals and they haven’t won a game since.

In this game, Carolina jumped on the Browns right away…an opening drive TD, 7-0. Baker Mayfield popped a 66-yard pass on the Panthers to open the game for their offense…and an eventual TD to tie the game. It was 17-17 at the half. 20-17 Carolina after three quarters.

Mayfield then put the team on his back, led a TD drive and an FG (should’ve been a TD drive) and the Browns took a 26-20 lead and held off a couple late Panthers drives to get the win.

Cleveland goes to 5-7-1, if they can win out and Baltimore loses one of their next two combined with losing to the Browns Week 17…the Ravens would end up 8-8 and the Browns 8-7-1. The Steelers are 7-5-1 now but they will be favored to lose this week (NE) and next (NO) and potentially end up 8-7-1 – and I believe the Browns would win a tiebreaker (better conference record).

I think Baltimore will fall and set up the Browns, and I believe the Steelers will fall to set up the Browns – the onus is on the Browns to win every game and get a shot at the most amazing football story of 2018. If the Browns beat Denver this week, possible, then beat Cincy Week 16…it sets up a Week 17 showdown with the Ravens that would be surreal.

The Carolina free-fall continues…five losses in-a-row. The Panthers are 6-7 with two games against the Saints remaining…no way they get to 9-7. 8-8 at best, likely 7-9 finish and a Ron Rivera firing by the new owner.

May 2019 Notes: Ron Rivera still walks among us, but another losing season is likely to get him + staff wiped out.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I have to start with rookie TE Ian Thomas (9-77-0/11)…

What a very good game from the rookie. In prior stints starting with Greg Olsen out, Thomas was a bit player…1-2 targets one game, 3-4 the next, more 1-2s than 3-4s and no one cared. With Olsen officially out for good, Thomas sprung up to a season-high 11 targets and 9 catches.

Part of this was the game plan, the Browns are tougher on WRs and softer on TEs. But the connection with Cam and route running were impressive here…it was like a real ‘connection’, a pitch and catch effort. Thomas fell a yard short of a TD in this game on one of his catches or his value would rocket even higher this week off waivers (for most leagues he’s was on waivers still, this week).

I could see Thomas with a 5-55-1 game in Week 15…or falls away to 2-24-0 and frustration for fantasy. What I saw here – he’s definitely worth a shot even in the bad matchup with New Orleans.

May 2019 Notes: 2-14-0 the following week, and then many bailed...and then Thomas scored a TD in Weeks 16 and 17 to finish as a strong TE option to the finish. Greg Olsen returning (which is ridiculous) gets in the way of Thomas making a run at being a strong TE1 in 2019.

-- As impressive, more impressive in this game…Curtis Samuel (4-80-0/8).

Let me just say this about Samuel’s game here, that looks OK/not awesome for fantasy on the surface – had a 50+ yard TD in the bag, beat his coverage by 3+ yards and was streaking deep and Cam launched one very short and the pass ended up a near INT instead of an easy, long TD.

Secondly, Samuel was once again a trusted end zone look…from five yards out, a quick foot-shuffle and blast off to the right, breaking his coverage man’s ankles…wide-open…but Samuel, inexplicably, turned the wrong way and Cam put the ball right where Samuel should have turned and got an easy TD. Instead, an incompletion.

We weren’t far from 6-140-2 from Samuel here…because he’s awesome and fully starting. ‘The guy’.

D.J. Moore (5-67-0/8) is a bulldog after the catch, like an Alvin Kamara after the catch, but he struggles getting open and making catches consistently. Samuel is the money of the two right now, but Moore is doing well as well…somewhat helped by the presence of Samuel.

May 2019 Notes: I'll have plenty o' content on Curtis Samuel this offseason :)

-- Want to read something shocking about Cam Newton (26-42 for 265 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 5-23-0)? Cam has run for 1 TD in his past 10 games and none in his last six games. Cam ran for 3 TDs his first three games and has just stopped running like normal since…giving rise to the Christian McCaffrey TD explosion.

I don’t know if it’s Cam’s shoulder…or if he’s checking out or what, but Cam has no extra reason to run/take hits in this lost season now. If Cam isn’t rushing for TDs…he’s suspect QB1 value.

May 2019 Notes: The shoulder was definitely a factor, as Cam would get shutdown because of it two weeks after this game.

-- Baker Mayfield’s (18-22 for 238 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) numbers since Hue was booted…

73.2% Comp. Pct., 279.6 yards, 2.2 TDs/0.80 INTs per game

Side note, in this game…Rashard Higgins dropped a 30+ yard TD catch on Baker.

-- David Njoku (3-35-0/4)… OK, I’ll tap out. One TD in his past 6 games. Under 40 yards in four of his last 6 games. He’s not cashing in on good matchups (like last week), so we need to find hope somewhere else. I’d rather hope Evan Engram pops this week.

May 2019 Notes: If I had a choice of Thomas or Njoku, as an NFL GM...I take Thomas.

-- Damarious Randall (9 tackles, 1 INT, 1 PD) was hot fire after 7 weeks and then he got hurt and muddled around for a few weeks, but he’s back now – 8.5 tackles per game the past two weeks. One of the best CBs in IDP.

May 2019 Notes: It was true most of 2018, when he was playing.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes from these two teams…

The Browns are at DEN, and v. CIN the next two weeks…with Chris Harris gone, it’s not a bad run for Baker and his gang. I like the Browns defense in both games as well. They’ve held three of their last 4 opponents to 20 or fewer points…and Houston was the outlier with 29 points, but 7 of those off a pick-six.

The Panthers have NO and ATL the next two weeks, could be a nice run…but the Panthers are free-falling. I think they’ll be OK for CMC and Samuel/DJM/Thomas ahead, but the Saints could finish them off with impunity this week.

May 2019 Notes: ...and the Saints did finish off the Panthers...in a dreadful, but winnable MNF game for Cam -- and then it was the end of his season.

Snap Counts of Interest…

42 = Landry

38 = Callaway

26 = Higgins

19 = Perriman

69 = Samuel

67 = DJ Moore

38 = Wright

29 = Funchess


-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.

-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>