REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#1-2 Marquise Goodwin and Tyreek Hill)
For the next two weeks, I am going to show and discuss two players per day from last year’s FFM Draft Guide report on ‘The Most Undervalued Players’ (for the then upcoming 2018 season). We’re looking back at the information from last year’s draft guide to see how it worked out and what we can learn for this season (if anything).
In general, if you were with us last year, it should’ve been a pretty good run. 2018 was the best in-season records and highest seasonal points scored in the near decade of draft guides and strategy reports in the summer/preseasons for subscribers. A lot of it due to the players we offered as undervalued because we not only talked about it – but we put a redraft/best ball (and dynasty) strategy built around grabbing these guys before others were even thinking about it. Some of you were mocked for who you took and when you took them – and then you started setting scoring records and shut them up (well, they never shut up…let that be a lesson to never worry about what the mainstream people are doing – we ‘play’ them like fiddles why they mock our moves, but who’s always one-step ahead in drafts, waivers, and trades?).
I’m going to republish two players per day starting with #27-28 on the list and go for 14 days to the end of June 2019. We’ll see if the concepts were smart or dumb…and what the lesson might be a year later. Our undervalued report is looking for lower cost, great ROI opportunities – not all will pan out but enough of them will…and some of them were ‘liked’ players by many but we considered undervalued because we projected them cornerstone players trading as ‘might be good’ for the masses in summer 2018.
It’s a review and learning series and also a pitch to show what info/intel you new folks to FFM in 2019 missed last season. We do it differently here…it will likely freak you out at first, make you say, “No one else is saying that…it can’t be right,” but that’s just your long-term fantasy-brainwashing talking. I know, I used to be captive as well.
Come walk the road less traveled with us…
Getting a combo of Tyreek and Goodwin was a key part of our 2018 preseason redraft strategy. We saw both going way undervalued, especially Goodwin…who was trading as a #75-100 WR early in calendar 2018 and then people started connecting the dots and he was going as high as a 3rd-4th-round WR by late-August/early-September. He was the bargain of the year in June-July-early August drafting.
I mean, Goodwin was the bargain of the year…on paper. He was the #1 WR for Jimmy Garoppolo in an offense that looked primed to step forward in 2018. Everything was all set…and then Goodwin hurt his quad in like the 1st-quarter of the first game of the year and then missed time, and while Goodwin was out he lost the key to the theory/Jimmy Garoppolo to his ACL, and then this whole fantasy play went down the drain. It was going to be brilliant, perhaps…but it got taken away from us by injury.
Some of this look back at the undervalued group from 2018 reveals a few players that got hurt early and things derailed. It’s a reminder that you do the best you can in your redraft but realize that you’re probably going to churn 33-50%+ of your redraft roster in season. You rule fantasy by having a great draft and THEN making the smartest tweaks and reactions to crisis in season. You cannot draft your way to a title because of the roster turnover to come due to injuries, etc, but the foundation is laid in the draft.
Speaking of foundations – Tyreek Hill was a foundation of my fantasy strategy for three years running, all the while me taking him a round or two ahead of ADP…all the while people saying I was crazy and that Hill wasn’t a real receiver, etc. Well, who’s laughing now/again? No one thought Hill would be this good…except me…three years in a row. NOW they are starting to get it (and then the Tyreek off-field stuff hit), but all the experts missed it/didn’t value it enough for years. To them, I say…thank you for giving me yet another window of opportunity because barely any of you have original thoughts, and panic at the notion of having a radical scouting concept…which I understand because you don’t do any real scouting anyway besides watching highlights and a few games in-season, but mostly just echoing what everyone else is echoing. Thus, you all chased Sammy Watkins together instead. Nice.
I thought I’d not be able to get Tyreek as a bargain ever again starting 2019, but suddenly he’s not in favor as of this writing because of the headlines (that turned out to not be true at all). We might FF-profit again with undervalued Tyreek.
What I was pitching about a year ago:
WR Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco
*FFM Rank in PPR: #13–16 range among WRs in June 2018…ADP range: #35–60*
If you see Goodwin as the 49ers’ Tyreek Hill with a better QB than Hill had in 2016–2017…then you start to pick up what I’m puttin’ down. I don’t think Goodwin is as talented as Hill, but he’s one of the closest things to Hill in the NFL (speed-agility wise). Goodwin was excellent for FF with Garoppolo last season, before Goodwin had a tragedy befall his child…after that he was OK the final few games. Goodwin is proving he works, and the 49ers believe, which is why they keep signing him to better and better deals. He’s developed himself into an excellent #2 WR…a guy who will get to roam free with one of the best QBs in the league and other WRs the defense has to watch. To some degree, like Hill, Goodwin is uncoverable with 4.2+ speed…and, now, he’s got a QB to light the fuse.
WR Tyreek Hill, Kansas City
*FFM Rank in PPR: #2 range among WRs in June 2018…ADP range: #11-16*
The single most dangerous WR in all the NFL. Not the best WR in the NFL, but the best built for fantasy football goodness. An instant long TD waiting to happen whether off a bomb, a bubble screen, or jet sweep. He’s the maybe the most dangerous WR to ever step on an NFL field in history.
He now gets to work with a non-stiff QB. He gets to work with a true gunslinger. The perfect QB for his style of play. Tyreek’s floor is what happened last season. His ceiling is #1 fantasy WR in 2018.
Why a guy like Tyreek who has been a jaw dropper, an amazing producer for two years is suddenly in question when multiple season disappointment, three-teams-in-two-years Sammy Watkins shows up is a mystery to me? Why would we reverse multiple year reality here? Watkins actually helps Hill take some coverage pressure on occasion…because defenses are as stupid as many ‘sheep’ fans, the ones who think Sammy Watkins is a better receiver than Hill…STILL to this day. I ride with the elite…I ride with Hill.
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