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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#15-16 Randall Cobb and Mitch Trubisky)

June 23, 2019 8:52 PM
June 24, 2019 1:40 PM

REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#15-16 Randall Cobb and Mitch Trubisky)

For the next two weeks, I am going to show and discuss two players per day from last year’s FFM Draft Guide report on ‘The Most Undervalued Players’ (for the then upcoming 2018 season). We’re looking back at the information from last year’s draft guide to see how it worked out and what we can learn for this season (if anything).

In general, if you were with us last year, it should’ve been a pretty good run. 2018 was the best in-season records and highest seasonal points scored in the near decade of draft guides and strategy reports in the summer/preseasons for subscribers. A lot of it due to the players we offered as undervalued because we not only talked about it – but we put a redraft/best ball (and dynasty) strategy built around grabbing these guys before others were even thinking about it. Some of you were mocked for who you took and when you took them – and then you started setting scoring records and shut them up (well, they never shut up…let that be a lesson to never worry about what the mainstream people are doing – we ‘play’ them like fiddles why they mock our moves, but who’s always one-step ahead in drafts, waivers, and trades?).

I’m going to republish two players per day starting with #27-28 on the list and go for 14 days to the end of June 2019. We’ll see if the concepts were smart or dumb…and what the lesson might be a year later. Our undervalued report is looking for lower cost, great ROI opportunities – not all will pan out but enough of them will…and some of them were ‘liked’ players by many but we considered undervalued because we projected them cornerstone players trading as ‘might be good’ for the masses in summer 2018.

It’s a review and learning series and also a pitch to show what info/intel you new folks to FFM in 2019 missed last season. We do it differently here…it will likely freak you out at first, make you say, “No one else is saying that…it can’t be right,” but that’s just your long-term fantasy-brainwashing talking. I know, I used to be captive as well.

Come walk the road less traveled with us…

I was really hot-to-trot on Randall Cobb to start 2018 season with a returning-from-injury Aaron Rodgers and no WRs signed/drafted to take his slot role. Week 1, 2018, Cobb caught 9 passes for 142 yards and a TD…and we were on our way. 5.7 rec. (9.0 targets), 64.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game through three weeks (and returning punts). 14.0 PPR PPG through three weeks works.

Then Cobb got hurt and could never get back right, returning too soon and then leaving again -- everything fell apart after Week 3.

The opposite for Trubisky, to start. Three ‘meh’ performances to begin 2018, and everyone calling me an idiot for endorsing him so strongly…and then his Week 4 game with 6 passing TDs, 354 yards passing and 53 yards rushing put a giant Mitch-sock in everyone’s filthy mouths. That started a string of 300+ yard passing games, and several 50+ yard rushing games. Trubisky was a top 3 fantasy QB from Week 4 to like Week 9…then he got hurt, and things got derailed some.

Many of you were using Trubisky as your STARTER for several weeks in 2018, so yeah…I guess I wasn’t so stupid after all. He finished #9 among QBs in PPG (4pts per pass TD) in 2018.

Don’t you know by now I know more about quarterback scouting than anyone on the planet? Check the decade long track record. Check the new 2019 fantasy football draft guide to see where I’m going with Mitch this season…

What I wrote this time last year:

WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay

*FFM Rank in PPR: #13–18 range among WRs in June 2018…ADP range: #36–45 among all WRs*

From our draft guide commentary: Cobb played 5 games with Aaron Rodgers last season (due to Rodgers’s injuries), and Cobb averaged 6.0 catches, 60.2 yards, 0.40 TDs per game…8.4 FF PPG/14.4 PPR PPG…a 16-game season projection of 96 catches, 963 yards, and 6 TDs.

If you include their 3-game run in the 2016–17 season playoffs, which would then be the last 8 games Cobb and Rodgers have played together: 6.0 catches, 70.1 yards, 0.63 TDs per game…10.8 FF PPG…16.8 PPR PPG – and 16.8 PPR would have been a top 4 PPR WR in 2017.

Their actual last 16 games working together – Cobb has scored 9 TDs, catching 5.4 passes per game.

You now take Jordy out of the mix and Cobb is Rodgers’s most trusted WR…and that’s taking nothing away from Davante Adams, who can/will be a WR1 in 2018. I’m pointing out Cobb as a guy trading as a forgotten WR4, who has been producing WR1.5 numbers with Rodgers when they’ve played together recently.

You might think, “Well, isn’t Cobb always hurt?” He’s played 16-16-13-15 games the past 4 seasons. He’s fine, AND he’s only 28 years old this season. Cobb might be my single favorite undervalued player of the summer 2018.

QB Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago

*FFM Rank in PPR: #8–12 range among QBs in June 2018…ADP range: #20–25 among all QBs*

When it comes to QBs, the national football media only bets on guys who were proven the year prior or any year prior…AND it’s a QB they ‘like’. Trubisky had a disastrous 2017 debut, statistically) and then they didn’t like him anyway (a one-year wonder in college…who does he think he is being higher rated than the glorious DeShone Kizer?), so there’s no way they’re going to endorse Trubisky heavily and push his ADP with the masses.

You probably know how I feel about Trubisky – he’s the best QB I’ve ever scouted. The most breathtaking QB talent since Jimmy Garoppolo in my book. I stuck with Jared Goff and Nick Foles and Garoppolo and watched them defy the experts who started writing them off or never liked them at all. I’m telling you, Trubisky is better than them all to my eyes. He’s the ‘next Aaron Rodgers’ would be a ‘comp’. Uncanny accuracy, cannon for an arm, as fast/faster than Deshaun Watson.

Trubisky with John Fox is like Jared Goff with Jeff Fisher, but Trubisky with this new coaching staff, a pro-offense coaching staff – that’s huge. Factor in they went out and added an all-star team of weapons around him to the great RB-duo already in place and the stage is set for something special to emerge.

I’m not betting on Trubisky as my QB1 and damn the torpedoes it’s a ‘lock’. I make him a part of my two-man QB group that I always try to have and Trubisky is my super-cheap QB2 who could be the league MVP this year. Tremendous value…a tremendous talent.


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>