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REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#17-18 Chris Thompson and James Conner)

Date:
June 22, 2019 10:42 PM
June 23, 2019 10:03 AM

REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#17-18 Chris Thompson and James Conner)

For the next two weeks, I am going to show and discuss two players per day from last year’s FFM Draft Guide report on ‘The Most Undervalued Players’ (for the then upcoming 2018 season). We’re looking back at the information from last year’s draft guide to see how it worked out and what we can learn for this season (if anything).

In general, if you were with us last year, it should’ve been a pretty good run. 2018 was the best in-season records and highest seasonal points scored in the near decade of draft guides and strategy reports in the summer/preseasons for subscribers. A lot of it due to the players we offered as undervalued because we not only talked about it – but we put a redraft/best ball (and dynasty) strategy built around grabbing these guys before others were even thinking about it. Some of you were mocked for who you took and when you took them – and then you started setting scoring records and shut them up (well, they never shut up…let that be a lesson to never worry about what the mainstream people are doing – we ‘play’ them like fiddles why they mock our moves, but who’s always one-step ahead in drafts, waivers, and trades?).

I’m going to republish two players per day starting with #27-28 on the list and go for 14 days to the end of June 2019. We’ll see if the concepts were smart or dumb…and what the lesson might be a year later. Our undervalued report is looking for lower cost, great ROI opportunities – not all will pan out but enough of them will…and some of them were ‘liked’ players by many but we considered undervalued because we projected them cornerstone players trading as ‘might be good’ for the masses in summer 2018.

It’s a review and learning series and also a pitch to show what info/intel you new folks to FFM in 2019 missed last season. We do it differently here…it will likely freak you out at first, make you say, “No one else is saying that…it can’t be right,” but that’s just your long-term fantasy-brainwashing talking. I know, I used to be captive as well.

Come walk the road less traveled with us…

Chris Thompson feels like it went wrong/was a bad call -- but recall that Thompson was a PPR RB1 the first four weeks of 2018 (picking up where he left off in 2017). Everything was going along according to plan – 6.5 catches per game Weeks 1-4 before he got hurt…and was never right when he returned and then was held back out again until a late run of a few ‘meh’ games. Had he not gotten hurt…he was doing James White things for fantasy GMs. We had it…and then we had to bail when he got hurt.

James Conner was a cornerstone of our mid-to-late August 2018 draft strategy. I kept pushing everyone to take him top 100 in the redraft – trying to get him before anyone believed Le’Veon would be out any games. I wrote thousands of words on why Bell might be out 4-8+ games in August while every ‘insider’ assumed he’d dance back in for opening game week. We’ll, we know how that turned out…and Conner was carrying many FFM backfields the 1st-half of 2018; a key part of many of the great FFM teams in 2018 – and it wasn’t luck on our part…it was a plan. This push paid for your insider subscriptions to FFM…and it wasn’t among top 3 best undervalued calls, as you’ll see in the days ahead as we get into our top 10 undervalued guys last summer.

RB Chris Thompson, Washington

*FFM Rank in PPR: #18-22 range among RBs in June 2018…ADP range: #28-35 among all RBs*

Chris Thompson is finally cleared/healthy (reportedly). Jay Gruden loves two RBs – Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson (and probably loves AP too, but he loves Kelley for sure). Why in a seas of RB talent in the world he is in love with these two, I have no idea. I just know that he is. He speaks about Thompson more glowingly than his own children, I believe.

Injury took Derrius Guice away. Adrian Peterson is a disaster in-waiting. Rob Kelley is the worst/2nd-worst starting RB in the NFL. Gruden and the organization hate talented Samaje Perine. It leaves Chris Thompson as their trusted guy.

Last season, Thompson was 10th among all RBs in PPR scoring per game (15.1)…ahead of Christian McCaffery. Ahead of Devonta Freeman. Ahead of Jordan Howard.

Thompson is not a workhorse RB, but he is a higher-end PPR target guy…5.9 targets per game his first 9 games last year (hurt in his 10th game, and out for the season). He scored 6 TDs in 10 games – a pace for nearly 10 in a 16-game season.

RB James Conner, Pittsburgh

*FFM Rank in PPR: #40-45 range among RBs in June 2018…ADP range: #50-60+ among all RBs*

We’re 13 days away from the season starting (as of this writing) and Le’Veon Bell is nowhere to be found. I get that we all ‘know’ he’ll show up last second and everything will be fine…but what if he doesn’t? Le’Veon has a lot of smart reasons why he should layout for several weeks into the season or fight this all season. He’s got a bigger payday coming in 2019 and can essentially take a vacation year in 2018.

What if James Conner is the Week 1 starter? What if he’s the Weeks 1-2-3 starter?

If he does start for a week or two or the season -- he’s definitely worth more than his current #50-60 RB ADP, #150-170 ADP overall. Maybe worth enough to take late and use in trade to Bell owner who has something else you want of his? Suddenly, ‘value’ is creeping into the Conner redraft situation because this Le’Veon thing is nearing the ‘concern’ levels.


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>