REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#21-22 Saints-DST and Robert Woods)
For the next two weeks, I am going to show and discuss two players per day from last year’s FFM Draft Guide report on ‘The Most Undervalued Players’ (for the then upcoming 2018 season). We’re looking back at the information from last year’s draft guide to see how it worked out and what we can learn for this season (if anything).
In general, if you were with us last year, it should’ve been a pretty good run. 2018 was the best in-season records and highest seasonal points scored in the near decade of draft guides and strategy reports in the summer/preseasons for subscribers. A lot of it due to the players we offered as undervalued because we not only talked about it – but we put a redraft/best ball (and dynasty) strategy built around grabbing these guys before others were even thinking about it. Some of you were mocked for who you took and when you took them – and then you started setting scoring records and shut them up (well, they never shut up…let that be a lesson to never worry about what the mainstream people are doing – we ‘play’ them like fiddles why they mock our moves, but who’s always one-step ahead in drafts, waivers, and trades?).
I’m going to republish two players per day starting with #27-28 on the list and go for 14 days to the end of June 2019. We’ll see if the concepts were smart or dumb…and what the lesson might be a year later. Our undervalued report is looking for lower cost, great ROI opportunities – not all will pan out but enough of them will…and some of them were ‘liked’ players by many but we considered undervalued because we projected them cornerstone players trading as ‘might be good’ for the masses in summer 2018.
It’s a review and learning series and also a pitch to show what info/intel you new folks to FFM in 2019 missed last season. We do it differently here…it will likely freak you out at first, make you say, “No one else is saying that…it can’t be right,” but that’s just your long-term fantasy-brainwashing talking. I know, I used to be captive as well.
Come walk the road less traveled with us…
Last preseason, I was projecting the Saints to be a top 10 defense in the NFL with a great schedule start Week 1 with Tampa Bay and Week 2 vs. the Browns. None of that worked off that bat (TB blew them away) and we all bailed (and were mad at me if you started them Week 1). I was hoping to face Jameis Winston Week 1, and instead I got Weeks 1-3 league MVP Ryan Fitzpatrick crushing the Saints defense/team. From that game on, the Saints were a top 10-12 NFL and fantasy scoring DST…but we got so spooked by their Week 1 performance, DST streamers streamed elsewhere after Weeks 2-3 and many missed the decent run that happened from then on in.
I have to count the Saints-DST call as a loss…the Saints ended #13 in fantasy DST scoring, #14 in yards and points allowed in the NFL -- a slow start…it didn’t work as great as I had hoped it might. But note after Week 3 this was a top 6-10 fantasy and NFL defense. We were on the right vibe, sorta, but the timing was all wrong.
Our Robert Woods call, however? That was one of our money calls of 2018. One of the key cogs of many division winning and title game appearing FFM fantasy teams. Woods was a redraft steal and was overlooked for weeks into 2018 before people started waking up. Woods was a key part of our redraft strategy planning – finding a WR1.5 for WR3-4 bargain money.
What we pitched on these two assets about a year ago:
21) New Orleans Saints DST
*FFM Rank in PPR: #1-3 range among DSTs in June 2018…ADP range: #9-13+ among all DSTs*
We’ve pushed the Steelers as a DST you can take anytime in redrafts as a fine/cheap DST to start the season with if you don’t land any top DST names you wanted. The Steelers are an ‘OK’ defense with a very good FF-schedule. They’ve been a default grab even just to make the play for Week 1 vs. the Browns…but after Week 2 they have a very easy schedule for a while: Week 2 Chiefs (not good), then TB/Fitzpatrick, Ravens, Falcons, Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Panthers, Jags, Broncos. It’s a beautiful thing.
However, if you want to pay up a little for a DST with a hot start for 2-3-4 weeks, no Week 2 pause like with PIT (v. KC) – the New Orleans Saints DST is providing great value from the jump. It’s a more talented defense, in NFL terms, than the Steelers and they face Fitzpatrick, Tyrod, M. Ryan, Eli, A. Smith, Flacco the first six weeks, before the schedule turns dark (MIN, LAR, CIN, PHI in games 7-10).
The Saints trade around the #8-10 DST off draft boards, but I’d argue for Weeks 1-2, and maybe Weeks 1-6 it might be the best fantasy DST to run with. On top of the schedule value – this is a talented defense. A top 10 talent defense, maybe a top 5. I wouldn’t trust the Steelers in a ‘bad’ matchup but I might trust the Saints to get by in a ‘bad’ matchup with their talent (especially if playing at home).
22) Robert Woods, LA Rams
*FFM Rank in PPR: #15-20 range among WRs in June 2018…ADP range: #35-40+ among all WRs*
Two Rams WRs on the 2018 top 25 Undervalued list? Yep.
The Rams passing game was white hot in the second half of 2017 season, as Sean McVay’s magic took hold. Robert Woods was Goff’s #1 WR in 2017, and he may be again in 2018. Don’t get me wrong, Brandin Cooks is terrific and will have his numbers but the workhorse receiver of the potential top passing game in all the NFL in 2018 – that’s Robert Woods; not Cooper Kupp or Brandin Cooks.
Woods played 12 games last season, and after a quiet first two games he went on a tear his final 10 contests – 5.0 catches, 72.0 yards, 0.50 TDs per game in that stretch…15.2 PPR PPG, which is WR1 work. In his playoff game appearance – 9 catches for 142 yards. Woods is Goff’s dependable guy. Cooks’ presence is only going to help take heat away from Woods to be ‘the guy’.
A sure-fire WR2, at least, in PPR…trading as a WR4 in early redrafts. A bargain.
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