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REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#23-24 Tyler Lockett and Courtland Sutton)

Date:
June 18, 2019 5:41 PM
June 18, 2019 5:40 PM

REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#23-24 Tyler Lockett and Courtland Sutton)

For the next two weeks, I am going to show and discuss two players per day from last year’s FFM Draft Guide report on ‘The Most Undervalued Players’ (for the then upcoming 2018 season). We’re looking back at the information from last year’s draft guide to see how it worked out and what we can learn for this season (if anything).

In general, if you were with us last year, it should’ve been a pretty good run. 2018 was the best in-season records and highest seasonal points scored in the near decade of draft guides and strategy reports in the summer/preseasons for subscribers. A lot of it due to the players we offered as undervalued because we not only talked about it – but we put a redraft/best ball (and dynasty) strategy built around grabbing these guys before others were even thinking about it. Some of you were mocked for who you took and when you took them – and then you started setting scoring records and shut them up (well, they never shut up…let that be a lesson to never worry about what the mainstream people are doing – we ‘play’ them like fiddles why they mock our moves, but who’s always one-step ahead in drafts, waivers, and trades?).

I’m going to republish two players per day starting with #27-28 on the list and go for 14 days to the end of June 2019. We’ll see if the concepts were smart or dumb…and what the lesson might be a year later. Our undervalued report is looking for lower cost, great ROI opportunities – not all will pan out but enough of them will…and some of them were ‘liked’ players by many but we considered undervalued because we projected them cornerstone players trading as ‘might be good’ for the masses in summer 2018.

It’s a review and learning series and also a pitch to show what info/intel you new folks to FFM in 2019 missed last season. We do it differently here…it will likely freak you out at first, make you say, “No one else is saying that…it can’t be right,” but that’s just your long-term fantasy-brainwashing talking. I know, I used to be captive as well.

Come walk the road less traveled with us…

In June 2018, people didn’t really believe Courtland Sutton would start…or matter for fantasy 2018 if he did. They were semi-right. My pitch for him to possibly get heat a lot faster than anyone planned was sensing the Broncos were close to cutting or trading Demaryius Thomas before the season started – and, thus, Sutton would be elevated off the jump…and then you could have used or traded that instant heat. My timing ended up off – Thomas was dumped at the trading deadline. Sutton did what I expected – shined enough for Denver to move things out of the way for him, but I was hedging that it might happen by Week 1.

For 2018, he was only a wobbly WR3 with the illustrious Case Keenum. Didn’t really work out to the FF-upside I speculated. He was undervalued and did better than the preseason consensus, but this situation wasn’t the smash hit I thought it might be – but a low cost to take a look, and that’s what it’s all about sometimes on these undervalued shots. Low risk, high ROI potential.

Sutton is Denver’s #1 WR for 2019, I do believe. What Joe Flacco does with that is up for debate.

Speaking of low cast, higher ROI -- in a similar trading range to Sutton last preseason was Tyler Lockett…trading as a WR4-5 in redrafts, basically a late Hail Mary pick or undrafted in 15-16 round redrafts. As the Baldwin rumors of injury jumped on and off the rumor mills, Lockett’s ADP would fluctuate between WR3.5-WR5.0 – but no one really believed in him as a talent. We did…and that paid off with sweet ROI.

Lockett ended up #19 in non-PPR PPG among WRs in 2018 (WRs with 10 or more games played) and #11 among all WRs in total FF points for the season. The top 12 total point scorers at WR in non-PPR last season were all big name/high ADP guys…and lowly thought of Tyler Lockett. Yes, that was a huge undervalued win for all of us in 2018.

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What we were saying/pitching about Sutton and Lockett a year ago…

23) WR Courtland Sutton, Denver

*FFM Rank in PPR: #30-40 range among WRs in June 2018…ADP range: #55-60+ among all WRs*

The undervalued aspect here is two-fold:

1) Sutton is a fantastic WR prospect. One of the best I’ve ever scouted. He has size, great routes/movement and ‘plus’ athleticism.

2) You look at the Denver depth chart and think there’s no way Sutton is starting or making an impact in 2018 without Demaryius Thomas getting hurt but I think there’s a growing chance Thomas is cut/traded by opening week and thus opens the door for the talented Mr. Sutton.

The cheap bet and big payoff potential here is getting that Thomas move right and then Sutton ascending. No one thinks it will happen in 2018 -- but just watch and see how good Sutton is this preseason…and Demaryius Thomas was overpaid for his ability/production since Peyton Manning left. I could see a change on this offense fast. Eventually, Sutton will be their star.

24) WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle

*FFM Rank in PPR: #30-40 range among WRs in June 2018…ADP range: #55-60+ among all WRs*

Tyler Lockett has flirted with NFL and fantasy goodness more than once. As a rookie, he scored 8 TDs…6 receiving, 1 in a KR, 1 on a PR -- 8 TDs as a rookie WR is huge. It wasn’t luck, he was a major weapon. He was set for a big 2nd-season (2016) and came out of the gates strong but got hurt Week 3 and tried to play through it (MCL sprain) and really was limited. He recovered several weeks later and started popping late in the season -- and then after three great games Weeks 13-15, he got hurt going for a TD catch in Week 16, ACL tear…done for the season/playoffs. He was back in 2017 and had some flashes in season, but kinda became lost in the shuffle.

Now, entering 2018, fully healthy, and with Paul Richardson gone – Lockett is primed to be Russell Wilson’s strong #2 WR. The sudden news of Doug Baldwin’s injury could make Lockett a #1 WR Week 1…and a white-hot fantasy grab. He’s cheap today by comparison.

I thought Lockett was going to be a star coming out of Kansas State, a WR who showed Antonio Brown-ish type potential. 2018 could be the set-up, the year Lockett finally claims the status he should have always been at.  



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>