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REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#7-8 Patrick Mahomes and Joe Mixon)

Date:
June 26, 2019 6:04 PM
June 29, 2019 12:03 PM

REWIND – A Look Back At Our Top 25 Most Undervalued Fantasy Assets 2018 Preseason (#7-8 Patrick Mahomes and Joe Mixon)

 

For the next two weeks, I am going to show and discuss two players per day from last year’s FFM Draft Guide report on ‘The Most Undervalued Players’ (for the then upcoming 2018 season). We’re looking back at the information from last year’s draft guide to see how it worked out and what we can learn for this season (if anything).

In general, if you were with us last year, it should’ve been a pretty good run. 2018 was the best in-season records and highest seasonal points scored in the near decade of draft guides and strategy reports in the summer/preseasons for subscribers. A lot of it due to the players we offered as undervalued because we not only talked about it – but we put a redraft/best ball (and dynasty) strategy built around grabbing these guys before others were even thinking about it. Some of you were mocked for who you took and when you took them – and then you started setting scoring records and shut them up (well, they never shut up…let that be a lesson to never worry about what the mainstream people are doing – we ‘play’ them like fiddles why they mock our moves, but who’s always one-step ahead in drafts, waivers, and trades?).

I’m going to republish two players per day starting with #27-28 on the list and go for 14 days to the end of June 2019. We’ll see if the concepts were smart or dumb…and what the lesson might be a year later. Our undervalued report is looking for lower cost, great ROI opportunities – not all will pan out but enough of them will…and some of them were ‘liked’ players by many but we considered undervalued because we projected them cornerstone players trading as ‘might be good’ for the masses in summer 2018.

It’s a review and learning series and also a pitch to show what info/intel you new folks to FFM in 2019 missed last season. We do it differently here…it will likely freak you out at first, make you say, “No one else is saying that…it can’t be right,” but that’s just your long-term fantasy-brainwashing talking. I know, I used to be captive as well.

Come walk the road less traveled with us…

 

Well, this was a hot top 10 undervalued list dealt out by us in 2018…and maybe none hotter than the #7-8 players on our list…Mahomes and Mixon, and obviously/mostly because of Mahomes.

This time last year, people fought me all the way on why it was important to make Mahomes the 2nd QB taken on your fantasy team…taking him before other teams took their first QB….and how hardly anyone takes a 2nd QB in the league from the draft anyways. Well, 2018 was why…and my explanations below pretty well happened as projected…only greater output than even I thought. This wasn’t about preaching some generic ‘two QB’ grab system…it was about possessing Mahomes specifically because of the potential for a 2018 season to happen. Getting Mahomes ended up the single best undervalued play of 2018…a guy who if you got, you were going to the playoffs just about no matter what else you had on your team (especially in 6pts per pass TD leagues).

I’m trying to acquire undervalued/draft bargains and weapons of mass destruction in the redraft, regardless of the conventional wisdom of who to pick when. I’ll let others worry about filling out the bingo card of positions the way all the group-think experts say it should be done. I don’t subscribe to any theory about ‘Zero RBs’ or whatever…I subscribe to finding nuclear bomb producers and filling in around them as needed. I want to win fantasy titles/money, not finish third in a very nice, well managed season.

I don’t mean to slight Mixon here either…because he was a key part of our strategies in 2018 drafts as well. 9th in PPR among all RBs (Weeks 1-16) but was not trading like that pre-draft 2018. Fantasy experts always pause/downgrade things they haven’t seen happen yet…they typically default to chasing after who just had a great year the year prior. Playing guys like Mahomes and Mixon against them allowed me/FFM’ers to draft a team that was graded ‘D’ or ‘F’ by every draft grade tool out there…because the traditional fantasy experts just reflect/lean more on what happened/worked last season and rank them accordingly. No vision…because they are terrible at scouting. All our draft ‘failing grade’ strategy did was set scoring records and in-season records for performance above all seasons in our nine years of tracking.

Our 2019 pre-draft plan will be more of the same…one-step ahead, willing to step out on the ledge. Will swing-and-miss at a few, as will everyone – that’s why there is a waiver wire…and confident we can course-correct in-season as needed.

 

What we were pitching about a year ago:

 

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City

*FFM Rank in PPR: #6–10 range among QBs in June 2018…ADP range: #13-17+ among all QBs*

I don’t think people fully grasp how amazing Patrick Mahomes might be for fantasy football.

People like him, in general, because he’s a young, hyped quarterback…but a lot of QBs fall into that description these days. Mahomes playing for a non-sexy team like KC, plus not having done anything of note/to sink one’s fantasy teeth into…keeps him tempered on fantasy analyst enthusiasm a bit. Mahomes has a positive vibe for 2018, but not an obvious QB1 vibe.

There are young QBs who I could see fighting for top fantasy scorer status in 2018…Goff, Garoppolo, Trubisky, Dak, but I don’t feel like they will finish #1 overall…like, blow away everyone and be an Aaron Rodgers type of #1 producer overall. Someday, maybe…but 2018 seems ‘too soon’ for these guys. But I feel differently about Mahomes…I could see him being the #1 fantasy QB in 6pts per pass TD leagues in 2018 out of semi-nowhere. However, there is a downside…

For all that excitement, I understand the downside…Andy Reid suppresses him with his stoic offense and/or Mahomes is too much of a gunslinger and his turnovers get everyone all out of sorts. My thought is -- the gunslinger side of him is what will lead the way, and ‘yes’ there will be turnovers. I could see Mahomes throwing for 300+ yards almost every game…and maybe 2-3 TDs and 1-2 INTs. If he finished with 35+ TD passes and 21 INTs and 5,000+ passing yards passing for the season, I would not be shocked. Because that last sentence has possibility – Mahomes is a QB1 projection for us already in 2018.

I don’t draft him top 5-8 among QBs, because that’s not his proper redraft ADP…I draft Mahomes to be my QB2 who has QB1 written all over him. I’m either taking Mahomes as my second QB before others take their first…or I have to wait and grab Trubisky after Mahomes is taken/gone. Trubisky is the better NFL QB prospect from a ‘tools’ standpoint, but Mahomes might be the better fantasy one and I don’t think there will be a learning curve…he’s going to come out slinging even if Reid tries to reign him in.

 

RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati

*FFM Rank in PPR: #6-10 range among RBs in June 2018…ADP range: #15-16 among all RBs*

A 1st-round RB1 at an 2nd-round price in redrafts in 2018. The only thing missing here is Mixon running up big numbers – he has everything else. Fans and analysts alike both think he’s a major talent. He will be the Bengals lead RB, he was most of 2018. We’re just missing the high-end 1st-year number production to grab everyone’s hearts and minds.

Mixon is clearly the best RB on the Bengals, and he showed Le’Veon Bell abilities in spurts all 2017…he just played on a bad offense, got rotated in and out early…and when he started to fly late in the season he got dinged up and had to miss a few games, derailing his momentum. He’s going to get RB1 touches in 2018…that’s our bet here – and if Mixon gets RB1 touches than he’s far superior a talent compared to a Kareem Hunt or Dalvin Cook or Melvin Gordon, etc.

Grabbing Mixon in the 2nd-round, planning for it, allows you to draft an ace RB 1st-round and have a killer 1-2 RB1 punch, or it allows you to grab a high-end WR and set Mixon up as a top value play as your ace RB. Mixon is a guy I like planning my draft around because if he hits in 2018, like we think he will and like we think the Bengals will return back to – he’s one of the steals of the fantasy season as a 2nd-round RB (occasionally falls to early 3rd in summer 2018). 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>