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Week 15: Saturday Football Pregame Notes…

Date:
December 19, 2020 2:49 PM
December 19, 2020 2:47 PM

Week 15: Saturday Football Pregame Notes…


Buffalo-Denver

Denver current secondary is mostly backups, with their main guys/corners out (as they have been on and off this season). You have to like Buffalo’s pass game – you already love it with Josh Allen as it is.

 -- Gabriel Davis has 4 TDs in his last 5 games. He has a TD in every game the last 3 weeks with John Brown out…and Brown is out again this week. Davis for a TD is a pretty safe bet this week.

Davis has started 7 games this season, he’s averaged in those games: 2.7 rec., 43.6 yards, 0.57 TDs per game…7.8 FF PPG/10.5 PPR PPG. He hasn’t been ‘wow’…just solid and available in a great passing game.

 -- Dawson Knox has 4 catches in each of his last two games, as he gets healthier/back from nagging injuries. You like the good TE talent with the great QB…good FF-things can happen. He has two TDs in his last 3 games.

 -- Drew Lock has been heating up, but it’s a big ask for him to succeed against this Bills defense…I’d bet against everything Denver in this game because the Bills have a top 5 NFL defense that’s getting better as we go as they get healthier as we go.

Tim Patrick with Tre’Davious White on him is not good.

 -- if you need hope for some scoring boost…Tyler Bass kicking in the Denver altitude boost – maybe he pops a 50+ yarder or two…if you’re lucky? Is your kicker one kicking in the cold/rain Sunday? Maybe Bass in decent Dec. weather in high altitude is a better option?

 

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Carolina-Green Bay

30 degrees approx. at kickoff, feels like 25-27. Not great conditions for a shootout type passing affair. Green Bay.

Last 6 games for Carolina…

Weeks 8-9: 70+ degrees

Weeks 10-11: 65+ degrees

Week 12: Dome at MIN

Week 13: bye

Week 14: 70+ degrees

Week 15: at Green Bay in the ‘feels like mid-20s’.

 

Might be more of a Mike Davis game than Robby Anderson-D.J. Moore one.

Curtis Samuel is the wild card…he’s their go-to in trouble, not their go-to early and go crazy. The Panthers are likely going to be down/in a chase all game with Aaron Rodgers unless they can hold time of possession behind Mike Davis running + short passes.

There is no obvious read on how this game will go as far as ‘flow’ or ‘script’ for Carolina. The weather and the opponent tells me they will try and be conservative and time of possession conscious – but if that doesn’t work, they’ll get drawn into a heavy passing affair as they go.

 

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Other news items…

 -- Matt Stafford going to play for Detroit now…a bump up for Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson, and some for D’Andre Swift.

 -- Damien Harris is out for NE…a big blow. Sony Michel and James White will get a bump.

 -- Brandon Allen out for Cincy means that game will be a bloodbath. Things to worry about as the blood flows…

a) You can’t trust any Bengals offensive player for anything big…Higgins-Boyd-Green-Sample.

 

b) Trayveon Williams might get more work in the 2nd-half of the game, but who knows because Zac Taylor has no real plan other than trying to win a game to show he has the team headed in the right direction. He doesn’t have a 2021 vision, so he may not think to work Trayveon.

 

c) This is perfect time to let ‘Diontae get his groove back’. This going to go one of three ways…

   1) Diontae Johnson drops two passes on his first 3-4 targets and gets benched again…and you get screwed.

   2) Diontae has a solid start to the game, the Steelers get up big, they then pull Diontae with the starters, so he books an error-free game for his confidence.

   3) Diontae gets 15+ targets, many of them early to get him reestablished and he wants to show up the ‘yips’ by catching 10+ passes for 150+ yards…and is still in when the others are out, as a training camp type game.

None of us knows what will happen, but if I had to bet on one…I suspect #3 is the most likely option. Or at least they try #3 before it turns into #1 or #2.

 

d) Why push wounded James Conner back to this game…when you can let Jaylen Samuels or Bennie Snail do work? I’ve liked Jaylen all week to get extra work here…but my Jaylen hunches rarely work out. It could be a Snail’s pace game.

e) Who knows with Chase Claypool? If they are so worried about a rookie wall…why push him hot here? Which means he’ll dominate the 2nd-half. ‘Wall’ be damned, I guess. I guess you can’t hit a wall if you play 50% of the snaps vs. 75% of the snaps makes you crash into the wall. Makes a lot of sense.

Actually, it makes no sense…but Mike Tomlin has dreamed this up, so you can’t tell him he’s wrong because he thinks all of us are idiots.

James Washington may end up the best FF WR option this game, in the end. 


Enjoy Saturday Football! 

Try and enjoy some game action in-between incessant commercials featuring Kay Adams in a bright filter/angelic camera shot talking about her joy for Saturday football. She’s just a normal gal who likes to get fully dressed, have her makeup and hair professionally done, make tea from a kettle, and watch football at home alone...fully dressed for a date and professionally made up -- totally what she does. 100% normal. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>