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2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft — Recent ADP Trends (Top-40) *July 30, 2015

Date:
January 24, 2018 1:24 AM
July 30, 2015 12:59 PM
— Our offseason ‘Rewind’ reports are where we look at an individual player’s previous season(s) of work–analyzing and researching it for clues on whether it was a ‘blip’ performance, or signs of future greatness…or signs of a mega-bust approaching. We try to do two per week in the offseason. —

Based on our latest tracking of two sources:

(1) Dynasty Rookie Drafts taking place over the past week+, and ones that do not involve FFM-CFM clients to the best of our knowledge…we can tell by the picks 

😉

(2) Recent Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings from popular sources/analysts…the ones that sway the masses.

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology“The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link unavailable): The Machine via FFM

 

We are publishing this info to help you plan your Dynasty Rookie Draft strategy or ‘trade the pick away’ strategy. We plan to publish these lists with some commentary. We will also have an IDP version every few weeks.

Here are the current top-40 ADPs we are tracking for the Dynasty Rookie Draft 2015 with commentary on a few of the players we found interesting or ‘on the move’.

*Change from ADP, is the change from the same tracking in the prior week.

 

1) Todd Gurley, St. Louis (1.3 ADP, change: moving up 0.2 ADP spots) – Is the 1.01 pick 66% of the time.

News/rumors of Gurley being ready opening-day is pushing him back up towards the ‘for sure’ #1 in the Dynasty Rookie Draft for most analysts, and Dynasty GMs are rolling with it to the past few days.

 

2) Amari Cooper, Oakland (2.2 ADP, change: moving down 0.3 ADP spots) – Is the 1.01 pick 20% of the time.

Cooper lost what Gurley picked up in momentum the past week or so. It’s more Gurley’s outlook than anything negative on Cooper.

 

3) Melvin Gordon, San Diego (3.2 ADP, change: moving down 0.4 ADP spots) — Is the 1.01 pick 14% of the time.

I thought Gordon would be making more of a move to be a 2.5 ADP, but he remains around 3.0-range. You’ll see either Kevin White, Devante Parker, T.J. Yeldon, or Nelson Agholor bumping him back in various drafts.

 

**Gurley, Cooper, Gordon are almost always the top-3 in some order…White and Parker are falling out of the top-3 group..**

 

4) Kevin White, Chicago (4.3 ADP, change: moving up 2.1 ADP spots) – A big move back up over the last two weeks. The late July and August Rookie Drafters typically follow the mainstream analysts, and the analysts are stuck in what they thought three months ago—until actual training camps and preseason games totally change the momentum.

5) DeVante Parker, Miami (4.9 ADP, change: moving down 0.2 ADP spots) – Positive health reports have Parker solidly in the #4-5-6 range in most Dynasty Rookie Drafts.

6) Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia (5.7 ADP, change: moving down 0.5 ADP spots) – Agholor has been a ‘darling’ of both analysts and Dynasty GMs, but after popping ahead of White-Parker a month ago, he’s falling back to his usual #5-6 spot.

7) Ameer Abdullah, Detroit (8.0 ADP, change: moving down 1.0 ADP spots) – In PPR leagues, he sees the top-5 more often of late–as high as #4-5 overall. He’s in a battle with T.J. Yeldon as the RB taken after pick #4-5.

8) T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville (8.5 ADP, change: moving down 0.7 ADP spots) – In non-PPR, Yeldon leaps over Abdullah.

9) Breshad Perriman, Baltimore (8.8 ADP, change: moving up 0.7 ADP spots) – A renewed faith for the past few weeks on beat writer reports that Perriman is a likely starter. The ‘drops’ whispers are almost like a hyphenated name for him—Breshad Perriman-Drops.

10) Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee (9.4 ADP, change: moving up 1.0 ADP spots) – This is analyst driven. FF-analysts love him at #8-10, and people are following.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

11) Tevin Coleman, Atlanta (10.9 ADP, change: moving down 0.4 ADP spots) – Tevin seems stuck at #10-13.

12) Duke Johnson, Cleveland (12.7 ADP, change: moving down 0.4 ADP spots) – This is a disbelief in West-Crowell, but (to me) not enough concern about the Cleveland offense…and how solid/capable/good both Crowell and West are.

13) Jay Ajayi, Miami (15.0 ADP, change: moving down 0.3 ADP spots) – I sense that there is pent-up demand for Ajayi. I think when people see him moving (instead of injury talk), he could move into the top-10 overall.  

14) Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis (15.0 ADP, change: moving up 1.6 ADP spots) – Dorsett keeps bouncing from #12-18. Those of you with Andrew Luck, you have to rank him higher as the insurance chip against a T.Y. Hilton injury or TYH’s pending free agency.

15) Maxx Williams, Baltimore (16.2 ADP, change: moving up 1.3 ADP spots) – Because he is the only TE anyone likes, he gets a bump of positional scarcity. He’s bouncing between #13-20.  

16) Devin Funchess, Carolina (16.9 ADP, change: moving down 0.7 ADP spots) – Talking to people, I think folks see Funchess as a Kelvin Benjamin clone…and that the same numbers are possible. People who buy this will take him as high as #12-13. In other drafts, he might fall into the low 20s. He is kind of all-over.

17) David Cobb, Tennessee (18.1 ADP, change: moving down 1.6 ADP spots) There is a lot of ‘analyst momentum’ for Cobb leaping over Bishop Sankey as the Titans main RB. Dynasty GMs are buying the premise more and more.

18) David Johnson, Arizona (18.3 ADP, change: moving down 3.1 ADP spots) – The analysts are stepping back in because Johnson is plummeting back to his usual #18 average. In reality, he doesn’t go #18 that much as he is more #12 or #24 (in non-FFM GM involved drafts). His variation is all over. People love him. Analysts don’t…and the analyst opinion is taking more center stage as August approaches. Get him before people lay eyes on him.

19) Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay (19.0 ADP, change: moving down 0.7 ADP spots) – Winston is clearly winning the Winston-Mariota battle in Dynasty Rookie Drafts, but as soon as Winston comes off the board, Mariota is usually 1-2-3 spots behind him.

20) Jaelen Strong, Houston (19.1 ADP, change: moving up 0.5 ADP spots) – One of the things I do not understand about this Dynasty Rookie Draft. Strong was ‘strong’ for analyst’s pre-NFL Draft, so they are holding on to the belief.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

21) Marcus Mariota, Tennessee (19.5 ADP, change: moving up 0.8 ADP spots)

22) Tyler Lockett, Seattle (22.6 ADP, moving down 2.0 ADP spots) – Surprised he fell, somewhat. Camp news has been high, but defaulting back to what mainstreamers think—he’s a #20+ guy all the time. Only FFM/CFM readers are pushing him top-15.

23) Devin Smith, NY Jets (23.6 ADP, change: moving down 1.1 ADP spots) – Devin Smith with an ADP right with Tyler Lockett is a scouting abomination…

24) Chris Conley, Kansas City (25.8 ADP, change: moving down 0.1 ADP spots) – He has a legit chance to be the KC #2 WR, it’s either him or Albert Wilson. If you’re intrigued by Conley, you should read our scouting report on him at College Football Metrics.com, but one sentence on Conley from our recent ‘Odell Beckham Jr. ‘Rewind’ study is very thought provoking. You should read it, if you haven’t already.

25) Josh Robinson, Indianapolis (26.6 ADP, change: moving down 2.1 ADP spots) – Tied to Frank Gore ‘too old’ fears. It’s as if Zurlon Tipton doesn’t exist.

26) Javorius Allen, Baltimore (26.7 ADP, change: moving up 1.3 ADP spots)

27) Sammie Coates, Pittsburgh (27.9 ADP, change: moving down 1.1 ADP spots) – This is the second most head-scratching ranking in the current top-40 ADPs, to me. I do not get this for a second.

28) Matt Jones, Washington (28.4, change: moving down 3.9 ADP spots) – He was pushing top-20 a few weeks ago, when there seemed to be a ton of positive OTA news, but silence lately has him fading back—because analysts don’t really like him that much, yet.  

29) Justin Hardy, Atlanta (29.5 ADP, change: moving down 1.0 ADP spots) – The Roddy White knee-drain issue reports, just out, may start pushing Hardy a bit ahead.

30) Mike Davis, San Francisco (29.7 ADP, change: moving down 0.1 ADP spots)

 

31) DeAndre Smelter, San Francisco (29.8 ADP, change: moving up 1.8 ADP spots)

32) Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina (30.7 ADP, change: moving down 0.7 ADP spots) – Gaining momentum as fear of the likely next JStew injury looms.

33) Clive Walford, Oakland (34.1 ADP, change: moving down 0.3 ADP spots)

34) Jeremy Langford, Chicago (35.1 change: moving down 1.8 ADP spots)

35) Tre McBride, Tennessee (35.7 ADP, change: moving up 0.2 ADP spots)

36) Kenny Bell, Tampa Bay (36.5 ADP, change: moving up 0.2 ADP spots)

37) Ty Montgomery, Green Bay (337.0 ADP, change: moving up 2.7 ADP spots) – A lot of positive momentum the past three weeks. He cracks the top-30 on occasion these days.

38) Zach Zenner, Detroit (37.6 ADP, change: moving down 2.9 ADP spots) – The national souring on Joique Bell is fueling Ameer Abdallah, not Zenner at all the past few weeks…but some still grab the Zenner lottery-ticket any time after pick #30.

39) Karlos Williams, Buffalo (38.8 ADP, change: moving up 1.0 ADP spots) – The McCoy handcuff hopeful for people. Not me.

40) Devante Davis (40.3 ADP, change: moving up 1.5 ADP spots) – Davis is the #1 thing I don’t understand on prospects in the top-40. The Chip Kelly fairy dust is going to make Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, Josh Huff, Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles, Ryan Matthews, Demarco Murray…AND Devante Davis all FF-stars. Going to be a great couple of years in Philly. Sam Bradford is like Aaron Rodgers then…I guess?

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>