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Starting in February, we will be starting up our very popular feature started in 2014–our ‘Rewind’ scouting studies. FFM ‘Rewind’ reports are where we isolate on a particular player from the prior season, and see if we can detect whether they are about to take-off to a new level, or are a hoax that needs to be avoided in upcoming redrafts or sold off in Dynasty leagues. They are players selected from either an open FFM reader vote, or who I see that I am getting the most questions about in the particular offseason–like C.J. Anderson, Josh Hill, Robert Griffin, Zach Ertz, etc. in 2014. We even did David Johnson and Odell Beckham…and they were beautiful.
Most everyone of them were crystal balls that were right on the money for the following season. There were 1-2 that didn’t work out so brilliantly, but not too soul-crushing.
Last season, we completed about 20 full reports. This season, I hope to push it as high as 50–with more defensive/IDP reports included (I may be shooting for the moon there, they are very intensive to watch every play of a particular player, but a boy can dream big).
In preparation for the new batch of ‘Rewind’ reports to come, I wanted to republish some of the reports from 2014 to celebrate my genius, or see what we can learn from where we were wrong. Republishing them with a quick update…
Today’s republished ‘Rewind’ report from 2015 will be our report on Derek Carr.
Well, I just re-read this report…and this was one of the ones we missed the mark on. Carr did not regress, he improved upon his 2014 rookie season in 2015. I thought he was in some trouble–that he could throw the medium-deep pass well enough to thrive. He still has issues there, but he’s getting better.
I could try to dance around and poke some holes in Carr’s 2015–the hot start, the sluggish finish…I have my concerns, but not that he isn’t a worthy NFL QB. I know he is…now. I didn’t think so before. The NFL is changing, has been, and I was about a year behind it. Carr is not the enemy because he isn’t the next Tom Brady…Carr’s style is more of the future in the NFL. Read our ‘State of the Union’ Reports/Dynasty stash reports on why we think that.
I’m not sure about Carr the Fantasy elite QB, but he’s good and useful..maybe with an upside. My old scouting self didn’t think QBs like this had a place as a top Fantasy assets. The FF-problem for properly valuing Carr in Fantasy–a flood of Derek Carr’s are coming to the NFL. We’ll talk a lot about that over at CFM, and over the summer into the draft guide valuations. For now, here’s me about one year behind on the QB evolution taking place in the NFL. Hopefully, I am ahead of it now…
Here was our 2015 preseason call, and the logic behind it: (link) Derek Carr REWIND