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REWIND: Our Tom Savage 2015 Preseason Report

Date:
January 24, 2018 12:25 AM
January 28, 2016 9:26 AM
— Our offseason ‘Rewind’ reports are where we look at an individual player’s previous season(s) of work–analyzing and researching it for clues on whether it was a ‘blip’ performance, or signs of future greatness…or signs of a mega-bust approaching. We try to do two per week in the offseason. —

Starting in February, we will be starting up our very popular feature started in 2014–our ‘Rewind’ scouting studies. FFM ‘Rewind’ reports are where we isolate on a particular player from the prior season, and see if we can detect whether they are about to take-off to a new level, or are a hoax that needs to be avoided in upcoming redrafts or sold off in Dynasty leagues. They are players selected from either an open FFM reader vote, or who I see that I am getting the most questions about in the particular offseason–like C.J. Anderson, Josh Hill, Robert Griffin, Zach Ertz, etc. in 2014. We even did David Johnson and Odell Beckham…and they were beautiful.

Most everyone of them were crystal balls that were right on the money for the following season. There were 1-2 that didn’t work out so brilliantly, but not too soul-crushing. 

Last season, we completed about 20 full reports. This season, I hope to push it as high as 50–with more defensive/IDP reports included (I may be shooting for the moon there, they are very intensive to watch every play of a particular player, but a boy can dream big).

In preparation for the new batch of ‘Rewind’ reports to come, I wanted to republish some of the reports from 2014 to celebrate my genius, or see what we can learn from where we were wrong. Republishing them with a quick update…

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Today’s republished ‘Rewind’ report from 2015 will be the forgotten quarterback Tom Savage–a quarterback prospect our CFM computer scouting models really liked coming out of Pittsburgh in 2014.

A few have emailed in to ask why Savage was not on our ‘Dynasty Stash’ reports, and for others who held him in deeper Dynasty leagues–they wanted to know if they should continue to hold a roster spot on him. My short answer is ‘No.”

The NFL has some biases, roadblocks against quarterback prospects…and Savage hits all of them.  

First, he’s a mid-draft draft pick–he has no real momentum or support. You’d think doesn’t matter, but it matters a lot. No embattled head coach can come out and say, “We’ve got an answer to all our problems–Tom Savage.” There would be a revolt in Houston after their playoff debacle. The fans want the bright shiny toy rookies coming out of the NFL Draft. Savage is old news. In addition, advanced college football passing games are starting to spit out many capable, talented QB prospects…no need to put a ton of eggs in the old-news, aging Savage basket.

Secondly, Savage has an ‘injury-prone’ label: Fractured foot in 2014, and severe shoulder sprain/issue in 2015. Shoulder injuries are not good for aspiring quarterbacks. 

Thirdly, most NFL teams are not built for Savage’s gifts. Savage is an excellent downfield thrower. He is one of the best medium-deep throwers I’ve ever scouted–powerful arm, quick release, highly accurate. Only Bruce Arians finds ‘deep ball at all times’ skills appealing. Most teams want short, safe passers with their young quarterbacks. Only bigger-than-the-coach QBs will do what they want on offense–and that’s not Savage. As well, as NFL teams (slowly, too slowly) one-by-one move to a variation of college spread offenses–that’s not Savage’s game either. 

All that said–Savage is a talented quarterback. If he stumbles into an opportunity, he might cash in on it, but the odds that he gets the chance, is allowed to splash, and gets the fans behind him–it’s a narrow path. I hope it happens, but I don’t see it. 

This was a pretty entertaining ‘Rewind’ regardless of whether we kill Savage off or not…

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>