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REWIND: Our Zach Ertz 2015 Preseason Report

Date:
January 24, 2018 12:26 AM
January 26, 2016 11:06 AM
— Our offseason ‘Rewind’ reports are where we look at an individual player’s previous season(s) of work–analyzing and researching it for clues on whether it was a ‘blip’ performance, or signs of future greatness…or signs of a mega-bust approaching. We try to do two per week in the offseason. —

Starting in February, we will be starting up our very popular feature started in 2014–our ‘Rewind’ scouting studies. FFM ‘Rewind’ reports are where we isolate on a particular player from the prior season, and see if we can detect whether they are about to take-off to a new level, or are a hoax that needs to be avoided in upcoming redrafts or sold off in Dynasty leagues. They are players selected from either an open FFM reader vote, or who I see that I am getting the most questions about in the particular offseason–like C.J. Anderson, Josh Hill, Robert Griffin, Zach Ertz, etc. in 2014. We even did David Johnson and Odell Beckham…and they were beautiful.

Most everyone of them were crystal balls that were right on the money for the following season. There were 1-2 that didn’t work out so brilliantly, but not too soul-crushing. 

Last season, we completed about 20 full reports. This season, I hope to push it as high as 50–with more defensive/IDP reports included (I may be shooting for the moon there, they are very intensive to watch every play of a particular player, but a boy can dream big).

In preparation for the new batch of ‘Rewind’ reports to come, I wanted to republish some of the reports from 2014 to celebrate my genius, or see what we can learn from where we were wrong. Republishing them with a quick update…

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Today’s republished ‘Rewind’ report from 2015 will be recent multi-millionaire (via a large contract extension) Zach Ertz. At this time last year, Ertz was a favorite Gronk-Graham alternative…the cheaper Travis Kelce way out at TE for Fantasy-2015. If you took the Ertz path, you crashed and burned quickly.

In late 2015, Ertz caught fire with heavy targeting and nice output–similar to his ending of 2014. In part because of this late-season surge, Ertz was just rewarded with big contract extension ($42M/five-years). In another universe, Ladarius Green should be suing the San Diego Chargers, because he’ll be lucky to get half of that in free agency. 

I maintain Ertz is every average/solid/good tight end in the NFL. He’s going to ebb and flow with the offense/talent of the quarterback. Last preseason, it was Chip Kelly’s pixie dust that was going to make Ertz magical…that theory flopped. What’s the theory this season? Doug Pederson, new Philly head coach/former KC O-C, is going to make Ertz into Kelce 2.0? Spoiler alerts: (1) Ertz is not the all-around talent that Kelce is. (2) Kelce wasn’t all that great for FF-2015…and that’s with a ton of advantages/focus on him. Sam Bradford is no Alex Smith…and neither have ever taken a tight end to the next level for Fantasy. 

The mainstream loves Ertz, and this contract only adds fuel to his Fantasy-fire. I don’t get it. Here’s me not getting it (below), correctly, last season–and a lot of the arguments hold true for 2016, for what we know of the Eagles now.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>