FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 30, 2022/Wednesday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 12: Chiefs 26, Rams 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 12 Game Recap: Raiders 40, Seahawks 34 (By Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 12: Browns 23, Bucs 17 OT (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Week 11 Projections will update between 7-9pmET, typically prior to 8pmET (Note the QB rankings page...that sheet has all the positions PLUS the Upside/Downside/Outta Nowhere on a tab at the end of the position tabs, running along the bottom of the rankings/spreadsheet.
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 29, 2022/Tuesday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 12: Steelers 24, Colts 17 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 12 Game Recap: Bengals 20, Titans 16 (By Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 12: Jets 31, Bears 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Dynasty Stash rankings will be updated today
-- Week 12 first Projections of the week will post between 6-8pmET
-- Tuesday Night Sit-Start Video Q&A 8:30-9pmET, 9pm-10pmET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 28, 2022/Monday
Items posted so far today...
-- TNF game reports will post ahead of the Executive report...
BUF-DET approx. 9amET
NYG-DAL approx. 11amET
MIN-NE approx. 3pmET
-- Executive Summary Report will post between 6-8pmET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
DFS Shark Tank Week 12: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for this week’s slate…
ANDREW DFS:
The two chalkiest QB plays of the week are projected to be Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith. Both have favorable matchups, and Geno’s salary is on the lighter side at D$6,000. Given that their ownership percentages should be just under 15%, you can still play these two. Keep in mind that there is a good chance that the KC vs LAR game gets out of hand quickly which will cause the game script to be more run heavy than usual. The over/under is 42 points, the lowest total ever for a game with KC when Mahomes is starting at QB. The last time a QB scored more than 30 points when the team was favored by more than double digits and the OU was no more than 43 was Ben Roethlisberger in Week 14 of 2017. If anybody is going to break a trend, it’s Mahomes, and also the QBs / offenses in games with a low OU aren’t as prolific as Mahomes / KC. Regardless, there is enough evidence here to go a different direction.
As for Geno, the Raiders run defense is one of the worst in the league and there should be rain during the game. Seattle’s game script should also tilt more in favor of the run versus pass. The QB I would go with in the milly maker competition is Bengals QB Joe Burrow. The Titans run defense is stingy and Bengals will be without starting RB Joe Mixon. These are positive indicators that Burrow will be throwing the ball more than usual. Since Jamar Chase is not expected to play, Higgins may have a higher ownership percentage than current projections. Given Burrow’s low ownership projection, a stack with Higgins can still be considered. Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst are other good cheaper / less chalky options. A nice bring back piece would be Titans rookie WR Treylon Burks who is coming off a great game against GB.
Mid-range play
JAX WR Christian Kirk has an ownership percentage less than 5%. While it’ll be difficult to run against the Baltimore defense, the Jaguars should be able to move the ball through the air. Kirk can also take away opportunities for chalkier teammates Evan Engram and Travis Etienne.
Cheap play of the week
KC RB Isiah Pacheco is a great option this week. He will benefit from a game script that should be titled towards the run. His ownership projection is 5-7%.
Player to avoid
Highly owned players don’t provide much upside in a big pool. Typically, these players are projected to do well so it’s difficult to ignore chalky players. Fading a chalky player that goes off for more than 30 points will almost surely eliminate your chances for the top prize. KC D and MIA RB Jeff Wilson Jr could have an ownership percentage greater than 50%. Both have very favorable matchups and will be difficult to pass. Of all the players with an ownership projection greater than 20% I would fade DEN RB Latavius Murray. Carolina’s defense is stingy and there is a good chance they will keep Murray under 15 fantasy points.
*Ross Jacobs had holiday schedule conflicts and will be back at it next week!
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 27, 2022/Sunday
Items posted so far today...
-- DFS Shark Tank Week 12: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments...will publish around 9:30amET
-- Week 12 final projections will post around 12:30pmET
*Sunday morning Video Q&A 10:30am-11amET (Part 1), 11am-NoonET (Part 2)
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
2022 Week 12 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
Another solid week…10-4 on all picks ATS last week, 3-2 Blazing Five, picked another two (for two) underdogs for outright wins on the money -- but all I can remember is having Minnesota as my Best Bet of the week. Yikes. Aside from that butt-whooping, it was a good week.
I don’t love the lines or options this week, so you’ll see a lot of dogs by default.
Also, be sure to check out my appearance on Bet The Close Podcast where we discussed how the Thanksgiving games don’t look so hot to bet…but there were some very interesting props to wager on.
Here’s a look back at Week 11 results followed by the Week 12 picks…
Week 11 results…
FFM All picks straight up: 11-3
FFM ATS: 10-4
FFM Best Bet: 0-1
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 3-2
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 2-0
Chris ATS: 7-7
Ross ATS: 8-6
Chris Best Bet: 1-0
Ross Best Bet: 1-0
When All 3 analysts agree: 3-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 4-2, for me
FFM Survivor: NO(W)
Chris Survivor: SF(W)
Ross Survivor: BAL(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 7-7
---------------------------------------
YTD results…
All picks straight up: 117-56-1
ATS: 95-65-4 (59%)
Best Bet: 7-4
Blazing Five (no TNF): 35-18-2 (66.0%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 14-7
Chris ATS: 101-59-4
Ross ATS: 82-78-4
Chris Best Bet: 9-2 (maybe you should listen to the expert!)
Ross Best Bet: 6-5
When All 3 analysts agree: 41-22-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 17-16, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W)
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 88-72-4
-----------------------
Week 12 Picks….
CHI at NYJ (-6.0)
The Computer says: NYJ by 9.9 (a 3.9 spread differential)
I am assuming NO Justin Fields, so I’m all over the Jets early…and the move to Mike White is very smart and will boost NYJ here.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYJ
Ross Jacobs: NYJ
BUF (-9.5) at DET
The Computer says: BUF by 5.6 (a 3.9 spread differential)
Buffalo has been struggling for the last 4 weeks, ever since their bye. They have injury issues again this week. I’ll take the hot Lions and I wouldn’t be shocked if Detroit wins outright. Big road favorites are doing TERRIBLE this season…rarely covering and often losing outright. Let’s ride that wave.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DET
Ross Jacobs: DET
LAC (-3.0) at ARI (moved UP the spread differential board)
The Computer says: LAC by 6.8 (a 3.8 spread differential)
Arizona is such a dead team. So many injuries…now at WR. If Byron Murphy is out again, then what you saw against SF in Mexico happens again here through the air. I want to go against LAC after their crushing loss to KC…but the one team in a worse place than LAC is ARI.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAC
Ross Jacobs: LAC
TB (-3.5) at CLE
The Computer says: TB by 0.2 (a 3.3 spread differential)
I just don’t believe the Buccaneers are very good and the Browns are very underrated/tough. I’ll take the points. Wouldn’t surprise me if CLE won…especially if we get cold and rain here.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: TB
Ross Jacobs: TB
DEN (-2.5) at CAR *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: CAR by 0.3 (a 2.8 spread differential)
Denver is arguably the worst team in the league, so I’ll take the home team with a new QB curveball.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DEN
Ross Jacobs: CAR
NYG at DAL (-10.0)
The Computer says: DAL by 13.7 (a 2.7 spread differential)
First Adoree Jackson down, now their other good CB Fabian Moreau is out…gotta be Dallas in a landslide.
*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYG
Ross Jacobs: DAL
CIN (-2.5) at TEN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: TEN by 0.1 (a 2.6 spread differential)
What everyone is overlooking is just how bad the Cincy secondary is now minus Chidobe Awuzie. This could be a surprise shootout and Tennessee just finds ways to win, and it might be through the air again.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CIN
Ross Jacobs: TEN *BEST BET*
PIT at IND (-2.5)
The Computer says: IND by 0.2 (a 2.3 spread differential)
The Steelers are starting to step up. Their young offense is starting to get better. Their defense is healthy. This is a battle of two similar teams that I think I’ll cop out and take the points.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: IND
Ross Jacobs: PIT
LAR at KC (-15.5)
The Computer says: KC by 17.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)
The Rams have to be the worst team taking the field Week 12 of 2022…and they are going to play on the road against the (arguably) best team in the league. This will be a bloodbath.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAR
Ross Jacobs: KC
BAL (-4.0) at JAX
The Computer says: BAL by 2.8 (a 1.2 spread differential)
The Ravens struggled mightily with Carolina last week. I don’t trust fading Lamar. I’ll hope JAX keeps it close. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Jags won outright.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: BAL
Ross Jacobs: JAX
LV at SEA (-3.5)
The Computer says: SEA by 2.6 (a 0.9 spread differential)
Las Vegas could have some kinda-sorta playoff life with a win…season over with a loss. I think LV is better than their record, and Seattle maybe not as good as theirs suggests. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be surprised if this were an upset win for LV, if Nate Hobbs is back.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SEA
Ross Jacobs: SEA
NO at SF (-8.5) (moved DOWN the spread differential board)
The Computer says: SF by 9.0 (a 0.5 spread differential)
The 49ers are a top NFL team now with an array of ways to beat an opponent. The Saints aren’t very good and are dealing with a lot of injury issues. You have to go with SF here
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SF
Ross Jacobs: SF
HOU at MIA (-13.0)
The Computer says: MIA by 13.4 (a 0.4 spread differential)
I tried to find reasons to take the big points and Houston, but I’m having a hard time seeing it. Stingley out…Kyle Allen is not an answer. He’s not terrible, but he’s not very good. I’m going with Miami, who will put 30+ on Houston and I don’t think Houston will get past 14.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: MIA
Ross Jacobs: MIA *SURVIVOR PICK*
ATL at WSH (-4.0)
The Computer says: WSH by 3.7 (a 0.3 spread differential)
Why do I feel like this is the week Washington stumbles and Atlanta plays ‘their’ game and just controls it on the ground?
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: WSH
Ross Jacobs: WSH
GB at PHI (-6.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 6.7 (a 0.2 spread differential)
Green Bay’s defense has fallen apart…and their offense is sketchy, and with Aaron Rodgers playing with a not 100% throwing hand -- I just don’t see the case for GB in this game, to even keep it close. GB has one win in their last 7 games and are (1-4) on the road this year.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: GB *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs: PHI
NE at MIN (-2.5)
The Computer says: MIN by 2.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)
I’m just not impressed with NE, so I’m taking the Vikings looking for a bounce back after an utter humiliation last week.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs: MIN
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 26, 2022/Saturday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: 49ers 38, Cardinals 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 11 Game Recap: Ravens 13, Panthers 3 (By Ross Jacobs)
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 25, 2022/Friday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: Falcons 27, Bears 24 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 11: Raiders 22, Broncos 16 OT (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 11: Eagles 17, Colts 16 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Projection will update later evening Friday, 8pm-10pmET+
(Note the QB rankings page...that sheet has all the positions PLUS the Upside/Downside/Outta Nowhere on a tab at the end of the position tabs, running along the bottom of the rankings/spreadsheet).
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 24, 2022/Thursday -- HAPPY THANKSGIVING
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11 Game Recap: Commanders 23, Texans 10 (By Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 12 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
-- 2022 Week 11: Patriots 10, Jets 3 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Special Video Q&A 10am-11:30amET
-- Week 12 projections will update approx. NoonET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 23, 2022/Wednesday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: Bills 31, Browns 23 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Bet The Close Podcast - Week 12 Thanksgiving Show with RC
-- 2022 Week 11 Recap: Saints 27, Rams 20 (By Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 11: Lions 31, Giants 18 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Week 11 Projections will update between 7-9pmET, typically prior to 8pmET (Note the QB rankings page...that sheet has all the positions PLUS the Upside/Downside/Outta Nowhere on a tab at the end of the position tabs, running along the bottom of the rankings/spreadsheet.
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
Bet The Close - Week 12 Thanksgiving Show
The entire BTC family make an appearance to break down the side and props for the Thanksgiving games. With a player prop you're unlikely to hear anywhere else!!!
Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet-the-close/id1476875957?i=1000587275660
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 22, 2022/Tuesday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: Bengals 37, Steelers 30 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 11: Cowboys 40, Vikings 3 (by Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 11: Chiefs 30, Chargers 27 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Dynasty Stash rankings updated for Week 11 games
-- Week 12 first Projections of the week will post between 6-8pmET
-- Tuesday Night Sit-Start Video Q&A 8:30-9pmET, 9pm-10pmET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 21, 2022/Monday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: Titans 27, Packers 17 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report) *Will post 11amET
-- Executive Summary Report will post between 6-8pmET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
DFS Shark Tank Week 11: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for this week’s slate…
ANDREW DFS:
QB stack of the week:
Josh Allen and Justin Fields are projected to have the highest ownership percentage (op%) in this week’s slate. Both QBs have a favorable matchup in a dome stadium and have the highest over/under. One QB that will draw less attention is Jalen Hurts. Additionally, his wide receivers AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Quez Watkins are not chalky plays this week. Going with Watkins is risky, however TE Dallas Goedert got injured last week which could increase the target share for Philly’s wide receivers.
There are plenty of bring back pieces you can use in this stack including Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor. Parris Campbell will be a chalky play but given that the Philly stack is low owned, you can get away with starting him. Campbell has had great fantasy outputs over Matt Ryan’s last few starts.
Mid-play of the week:
My mid-range play of the week is Devin Singletary (D$5,800). If Singletary has a good day, chances are that he’ll be taking TDs away from Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Both players are projected to have the highest op% at their respective positions. The Bills may revert to a run-heavy script given their lack of practice/preparation this week. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson had their way with the Browns run defense; look for Buffalo to run more than usual in this game.
Cheap play of the week:
Quez Watkins and Parris Campbell are two cheap plays that were mentioned as part of the QB stack. Nico Collins (D$4,100) is also another good low budget play. Collins drew ten targets against New York last week and is starting to become the focal point of Houston’s passing attack. This week Collins is going up against a weak Commanders secondary and can provide great ROI for his salary. Donovan Peoples-Jones (D$4,600) can be utilized in Bills stacks; keep in mind that David Njoku is slated to return this week, which could temper DPJ’s output.
Chalk to avoid:
In large pools, you almost always want to fade players with large op%. These type of players/ownership%...most can’t help you gain advantage over the rest of the pool unless they have ridiculous performances. Out of all the players that have an op% in excess of 20%, I think RB Josh Jacobs is the most likely to have a disappointing performance. The Broncos offense is abysmal, but their defense is one of the best in the league. They held Derrick Henry in check the week before and should be able to do the same to Jacobs.
—--------------------------------------------
ROSS JACOBS:
Favorite Stack:
Lots of good options this week but I think I like Dak Prescott paired with your choice of double stack. Lamb is always a safe choice, but Gallup and Schultz make great second options, or you can pair those two for a cheaper overall play. The Minnesota defense is weak, especially the pass defense, but it's been hidden by a relatively weak schedule and the fact that the team keeps winning.
I also think the Dallas defense is starting to come apart, particularly in the secondary, so I could easily see this game turning into a shootout. Cousins would be a good play in that scenario as well, but I lean Dak over Cousins because he has a little more potential to run for a few yards or even a short TD.
Best Mid-Price Option:
Brian Robinson at $5300 feels like stealing. I'm sure he'll be rather chalky going up against the now notoriously bad Houston run defense, but sometimes you just have to play the obvious. Gibson might cut in on his fun, but Robinson projects for around 20 carries and has a great shot at going over 100 yards and nabbing a TD or two to boot.
Best Cheap Option:
I'm going off the rails with this one...please note, it is not for the faint of heart, this is definitely a hail mary trying to hit that one goofy player that nobody else has which can help win you a big tournament. The mystery player? Ben Skowronek at $3900.
I know it sounds crazy but hear me out. Stafford is back at QB this week and the Rams have absolutely no run game...they have to throw. Allen Robinson is going to draw top coverage against a good Saints pass defense and he hasn't done jack all year anyways. I don't expect his role to change much. Van Jefferson might be the guy that gets more targets but I think he might be the deep threat McVay uses to try and open up coverage a little. They have been missing that aspect so far this year and neither Robinson or Skowronek has that kind of speed. That leaves Skowronek as the most likely candidate to replace the "Cooper Kupp" role.
Now I'm not saying Skowronek suddenly gets 12+ targets and breaks big plays like Kupp did, but I do think there's a better than 50/50 chance he gets 8-9 targets and turns them into a decent stat line. At $3900 we don't need him to have a Kupp level game, we just need him to have a very solid game, maybe 20ish points and he could easily get there if he goes something like 6-74-1 and there's always the chance he outperforms what even I think could happen and then you've got a real winner. It's a nice cheap gamble that almost nobody else will be on. It might not hit but it might win you $1 million too.
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 20, 2022/Sunday
Items posted so far today...
-- DFS Shark Tank Week 11: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments...will publish around 9:30amET
-- Week 11 final projections will post around 12:30pmET
*Sunday morning Video Q&A 10:30am-11amET (Part 1), 11am-NoonET (Part 2)
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 30, 2022/Wednesday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 12: Chiefs 26, Rams 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 12 Game Recap: Raiders 40, Seahawks 34 (By Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 12: Browns 23, Bucs 17 OT (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Week 11 Projections will update between 7-9pmET, typically prior to 8pmET (Note the QB rankings page...that sheet has all the positions PLUS the Upside/Downside/Outta Nowhere on a tab at the end of the position tabs, running along the bottom of the rankings/spreadsheet.
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 29, 2022/Tuesday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 12: Steelers 24, Colts 17 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 12 Game Recap: Bengals 20, Titans 16 (By Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 12: Jets 31, Bears 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Dynasty Stash rankings will be updated today
-- Week 12 first Projections of the week will post between 6-8pmET
-- Tuesday Night Sit-Start Video Q&A 8:30-9pmET, 9pm-10pmET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 28, 2022/Monday
Items posted so far today...
-- TNF game reports will post ahead of the Executive report...
BUF-DET approx. 9amET
NYG-DAL approx. 11amET
MIN-NE approx. 3pmET
-- Executive Summary Report will post between 6-8pmET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
DFS Shark Tank Week 12: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for this week’s slate…
ANDREW DFS:
The two chalkiest QB plays of the week are projected to be Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith. Both have favorable matchups, and Geno’s salary is on the lighter side at D$6,000. Given that their ownership percentages should be just under 15%, you can still play these two. Keep in mind that there is a good chance that the KC vs LAR game gets out of hand quickly which will cause the game script to be more run heavy than usual. The over/under is 42 points, the lowest total ever for a game with KC when Mahomes is starting at QB. The last time a QB scored more than 30 points when the team was favored by more than double digits and the OU was no more than 43 was Ben Roethlisberger in Week 14 of 2017. If anybody is going to break a trend, it’s Mahomes, and also the QBs / offenses in games with a low OU aren’t as prolific as Mahomes / KC. Regardless, there is enough evidence here to go a different direction.
As for Geno, the Raiders run defense is one of the worst in the league and there should be rain during the game. Seattle’s game script should also tilt more in favor of the run versus pass. The QB I would go with in the milly maker competition is Bengals QB Joe Burrow. The Titans run defense is stingy and Bengals will be without starting RB Joe Mixon. These are positive indicators that Burrow will be throwing the ball more than usual. Since Jamar Chase is not expected to play, Higgins may have a higher ownership percentage than current projections. Given Burrow’s low ownership projection, a stack with Higgins can still be considered. Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst are other good cheaper / less chalky options. A nice bring back piece would be Titans rookie WR Treylon Burks who is coming off a great game against GB.
Mid-range play
JAX WR Christian Kirk has an ownership percentage less than 5%. While it’ll be difficult to run against the Baltimore defense, the Jaguars should be able to move the ball through the air. Kirk can also take away opportunities for chalkier teammates Evan Engram and Travis Etienne.
Cheap play of the week
KC RB Isiah Pacheco is a great option this week. He will benefit from a game script that should be titled towards the run. His ownership projection is 5-7%.
Player to avoid
Highly owned players don’t provide much upside in a big pool. Typically, these players are projected to do well so it’s difficult to ignore chalky players. Fading a chalky player that goes off for more than 30 points will almost surely eliminate your chances for the top prize. KC D and MIA RB Jeff Wilson Jr could have an ownership percentage greater than 50%. Both have very favorable matchups and will be difficult to pass. Of all the players with an ownership projection greater than 20% I would fade DEN RB Latavius Murray. Carolina’s defense is stingy and there is a good chance they will keep Murray under 15 fantasy points.
*Ross Jacobs had holiday schedule conflicts and will be back at it next week!
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 27, 2022/Sunday
Items posted so far today...
-- DFS Shark Tank Week 12: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments...will publish around 9:30amET
-- Week 12 final projections will post around 12:30pmET
*Sunday morning Video Q&A 10:30am-11amET (Part 1), 11am-NoonET (Part 2)
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
2022 Week 12 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
Another solid week…10-4 on all picks ATS last week, 3-2 Blazing Five, picked another two (for two) underdogs for outright wins on the money -- but all I can remember is having Minnesota as my Best Bet of the week. Yikes. Aside from that butt-whooping, it was a good week.
I don’t love the lines or options this week, so you’ll see a lot of dogs by default.
Also, be sure to check out my appearance on Bet The Close Podcast where we discussed how the Thanksgiving games don’t look so hot to bet…but there were some very interesting props to wager on.
Here’s a look back at Week 11 results followed by the Week 12 picks…
Week 11 results…
FFM All picks straight up: 11-3
FFM ATS: 10-4
FFM Best Bet: 0-1
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 3-2
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 2-0
Chris ATS: 7-7
Ross ATS: 8-6
Chris Best Bet: 1-0
Ross Best Bet: 1-0
When All 3 analysts agree: 3-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 4-2, for me
FFM Survivor: NO(W)
Chris Survivor: SF(W)
Ross Survivor: BAL(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 7-7
---------------------------------------
YTD results…
All picks straight up: 117-56-1
ATS: 95-65-4 (59%)
Best Bet: 7-4
Blazing Five (no TNF): 35-18-2 (66.0%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 14-7
Chris ATS: 101-59-4
Ross ATS: 82-78-4
Chris Best Bet: 9-2 (maybe you should listen to the expert!)
Ross Best Bet: 6-5
When All 3 analysts agree: 41-22-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 17-16, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W)
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 88-72-4
-----------------------
Week 12 Picks….
CHI at NYJ (-6.0)
The Computer says: NYJ by 9.9 (a 3.9 spread differential)
I am assuming NO Justin Fields, so I’m all over the Jets early…and the move to Mike White is very smart and will boost NYJ here.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYJ
Ross Jacobs: NYJ
BUF (-9.5) at DET
The Computer says: BUF by 5.6 (a 3.9 spread differential)
Buffalo has been struggling for the last 4 weeks, ever since their bye. They have injury issues again this week. I’ll take the hot Lions and I wouldn’t be shocked if Detroit wins outright. Big road favorites are doing TERRIBLE this season…rarely covering and often losing outright. Let’s ride that wave.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DET
Ross Jacobs: DET
LAC (-3.0) at ARI (moved UP the spread differential board)
The Computer says: LAC by 6.8 (a 3.8 spread differential)
Arizona is such a dead team. So many injuries…now at WR. If Byron Murphy is out again, then what you saw against SF in Mexico happens again here through the air. I want to go against LAC after their crushing loss to KC…but the one team in a worse place than LAC is ARI.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAC
Ross Jacobs: LAC
TB (-3.5) at CLE
The Computer says: TB by 0.2 (a 3.3 spread differential)
I just don’t believe the Buccaneers are very good and the Browns are very underrated/tough. I’ll take the points. Wouldn’t surprise me if CLE won…especially if we get cold and rain here.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: TB
Ross Jacobs: TB
DEN (-2.5) at CAR *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: CAR by 0.3 (a 2.8 spread differential)
Denver is arguably the worst team in the league, so I’ll take the home team with a new QB curveball.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DEN
Ross Jacobs: CAR
NYG at DAL (-10.0)
The Computer says: DAL by 13.7 (a 2.7 spread differential)
First Adoree Jackson down, now their other good CB Fabian Moreau is out…gotta be Dallas in a landslide.
*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYG
Ross Jacobs: DAL
CIN (-2.5) at TEN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: TEN by 0.1 (a 2.6 spread differential)
What everyone is overlooking is just how bad the Cincy secondary is now minus Chidobe Awuzie. This could be a surprise shootout and Tennessee just finds ways to win, and it might be through the air again.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CIN
Ross Jacobs: TEN *BEST BET*
PIT at IND (-2.5)
The Computer says: IND by 0.2 (a 2.3 spread differential)
The Steelers are starting to step up. Their young offense is starting to get better. Their defense is healthy. This is a battle of two similar teams that I think I’ll cop out and take the points.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: IND
Ross Jacobs: PIT
LAR at KC (-15.5)
The Computer says: KC by 17.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)
The Rams have to be the worst team taking the field Week 12 of 2022…and they are going to play on the road against the (arguably) best team in the league. This will be a bloodbath.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAR
Ross Jacobs: KC
BAL (-4.0) at JAX
The Computer says: BAL by 2.8 (a 1.2 spread differential)
The Ravens struggled mightily with Carolina last week. I don’t trust fading Lamar. I’ll hope JAX keeps it close. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Jags won outright.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: BAL
Ross Jacobs: JAX
LV at SEA (-3.5)
The Computer says: SEA by 2.6 (a 0.9 spread differential)
Las Vegas could have some kinda-sorta playoff life with a win…season over with a loss. I think LV is better than their record, and Seattle maybe not as good as theirs suggests. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be surprised if this were an upset win for LV, if Nate Hobbs is back.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SEA
Ross Jacobs: SEA
NO at SF (-8.5) (moved DOWN the spread differential board)
The Computer says: SF by 9.0 (a 0.5 spread differential)
The 49ers are a top NFL team now with an array of ways to beat an opponent. The Saints aren’t very good and are dealing with a lot of injury issues. You have to go with SF here
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SF
Ross Jacobs: SF
HOU at MIA (-13.0)
The Computer says: MIA by 13.4 (a 0.4 spread differential)
I tried to find reasons to take the big points and Houston, but I’m having a hard time seeing it. Stingley out…Kyle Allen is not an answer. He’s not terrible, but he’s not very good. I’m going with Miami, who will put 30+ on Houston and I don’t think Houston will get past 14.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: MIA
Ross Jacobs: MIA *SURVIVOR PICK*
ATL at WSH (-4.0)
The Computer says: WSH by 3.7 (a 0.3 spread differential)
Why do I feel like this is the week Washington stumbles and Atlanta plays ‘their’ game and just controls it on the ground?
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: WSH
Ross Jacobs: WSH
GB at PHI (-6.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 6.7 (a 0.2 spread differential)
Green Bay’s defense has fallen apart…and their offense is sketchy, and with Aaron Rodgers playing with a not 100% throwing hand -- I just don’t see the case for GB in this game, to even keep it close. GB has one win in their last 7 games and are (1-4) on the road this year.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: GB *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs: PHI
NE at MIN (-2.5)
The Computer says: MIN by 2.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)
I’m just not impressed with NE, so I’m taking the Vikings looking for a bounce back after an utter humiliation last week.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs: MIN
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 26, 2022/Saturday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: 49ers 38, Cardinals 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 11 Game Recap: Ravens 13, Panthers 3 (By Ross Jacobs)
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 25, 2022/Friday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: Falcons 27, Bears 24 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 11: Raiders 22, Broncos 16 OT (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 11: Eagles 17, Colts 16 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Projection will update later evening Friday, 8pm-10pmET+
(Note the QB rankings page...that sheet has all the positions PLUS the Upside/Downside/Outta Nowhere on a tab at the end of the position tabs, running along the bottom of the rankings/spreadsheet).
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 24, 2022/Thursday -- HAPPY THANKSGIVING
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11 Game Recap: Commanders 23, Texans 10 (By Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 12 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
-- 2022 Week 11: Patriots 10, Jets 3 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Special Video Q&A 10am-11:30amET
-- Week 12 projections will update approx. NoonET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 23, 2022/Wednesday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: Bills 31, Browns 23 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Bet The Close Podcast - Week 12 Thanksgiving Show with RC
-- 2022 Week 11 Recap: Saints 27, Rams 20 (By Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 11: Lions 31, Giants 18 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Week 11 Projections will update between 7-9pmET, typically prior to 8pmET (Note the QB rankings page...that sheet has all the positions PLUS the Upside/Downside/Outta Nowhere on a tab at the end of the position tabs, running along the bottom of the rankings/spreadsheet.
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
Bet The Close - Week 12 Thanksgiving Show
The entire BTC family make an appearance to break down the side and props for the Thanksgiving games. With a player prop you're unlikely to hear anywhere else!!!
Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet-the-close/id1476875957?i=1000587275660
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 22, 2022/Tuesday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: Bengals 37, Steelers 30 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- 2022 Week 11: Cowboys 40, Vikings 3 (by Ross Jacobs)
-- 2022 Week 11: Chiefs 30, Chargers 27 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
-- Dynasty Stash rankings updated for Week 11 games
-- Week 12 first Projections of the week will post between 6-8pmET
-- Tuesday Night Sit-Start Video Q&A 8:30-9pmET, 9pm-10pmET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 21, 2022/Monday
Items posted so far today...
-- 2022 Week 11: Titans 27, Packers 17 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report) *Will post 11amET
-- Executive Summary Report will post between 6-8pmET
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
DFS Shark Tank Week 11: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for this week’s slate…
ANDREW DFS:
QB stack of the week:
Josh Allen and Justin Fields are projected to have the highest ownership percentage (op%) in this week’s slate. Both QBs have a favorable matchup in a dome stadium and have the highest over/under. One QB that will draw less attention is Jalen Hurts. Additionally, his wide receivers AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Quez Watkins are not chalky plays this week. Going with Watkins is risky, however TE Dallas Goedert got injured last week which could increase the target share for Philly’s wide receivers.
There are plenty of bring back pieces you can use in this stack including Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor. Parris Campbell will be a chalky play but given that the Philly stack is low owned, you can get away with starting him. Campbell has had great fantasy outputs over Matt Ryan’s last few starts.
Mid-play of the week:
My mid-range play of the week is Devin Singletary (D$5,800). If Singletary has a good day, chances are that he’ll be taking TDs away from Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Both players are projected to have the highest op% at their respective positions. The Bills may revert to a run-heavy script given their lack of practice/preparation this week. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson had their way with the Browns run defense; look for Buffalo to run more than usual in this game.
Cheap play of the week:
Quez Watkins and Parris Campbell are two cheap plays that were mentioned as part of the QB stack. Nico Collins (D$4,100) is also another good low budget play. Collins drew ten targets against New York last week and is starting to become the focal point of Houston’s passing attack. This week Collins is going up against a weak Commanders secondary and can provide great ROI for his salary. Donovan Peoples-Jones (D$4,600) can be utilized in Bills stacks; keep in mind that David Njoku is slated to return this week, which could temper DPJ’s output.
Chalk to avoid:
In large pools, you almost always want to fade players with large op%. These type of players/ownership%...most can’t help you gain advantage over the rest of the pool unless they have ridiculous performances. Out of all the players that have an op% in excess of 20%, I think RB Josh Jacobs is the most likely to have a disappointing performance. The Broncos offense is abysmal, but their defense is one of the best in the league. They held Derrick Henry in check the week before and should be able to do the same to Jacobs.
—--------------------------------------------
ROSS JACOBS:
Favorite Stack:
Lots of good options this week but I think I like Dak Prescott paired with your choice of double stack. Lamb is always a safe choice, but Gallup and Schultz make great second options, or you can pair those two for a cheaper overall play. The Minnesota defense is weak, especially the pass defense, but it's been hidden by a relatively weak schedule and the fact that the team keeps winning.
I also think the Dallas defense is starting to come apart, particularly in the secondary, so I could easily see this game turning into a shootout. Cousins would be a good play in that scenario as well, but I lean Dak over Cousins because he has a little more potential to run for a few yards or even a short TD.
Best Mid-Price Option:
Brian Robinson at $5300 feels like stealing. I'm sure he'll be rather chalky going up against the now notoriously bad Houston run defense, but sometimes you just have to play the obvious. Gibson might cut in on his fun, but Robinson projects for around 20 carries and has a great shot at going over 100 yards and nabbing a TD or two to boot.
Best Cheap Option:
I'm going off the rails with this one...please note, it is not for the faint of heart, this is definitely a hail mary trying to hit that one goofy player that nobody else has which can help win you a big tournament. The mystery player? Ben Skowronek at $3900.
I know it sounds crazy but hear me out. Stafford is back at QB this week and the Rams have absolutely no run game...they have to throw. Allen Robinson is going to draw top coverage against a good Saints pass defense and he hasn't done jack all year anyways. I don't expect his role to change much. Van Jefferson might be the guy that gets more targets but I think he might be the deep threat McVay uses to try and open up coverage a little. They have been missing that aspect so far this year and neither Robinson or Skowronek has that kind of speed. That leaves Skowronek as the most likely candidate to replace the "Cooper Kupp" role.
Now I'm not saying Skowronek suddenly gets 12+ targets and breaks big plays like Kupp did, but I do think there's a better than 50/50 chance he gets 8-9 targets and turns them into a decent stat line. At $3900 we don't need him to have a Kupp level game, we just need him to have a very solid game, maybe 20ish points and he could easily get there if he goes something like 6-74-1 and there's always the chance he outperforms what even I think could happen and then you've got a real winner. It's a nice cheap gamble that almost nobody else will be on. It might not hit but it might win you $1 million too.
FFM/CFM Daily Summary...Nov. 20, 2022/Sunday
Items posted so far today...
-- DFS Shark Tank Week 11: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments...will publish around 9:30amET
-- Week 11 final projections will post around 12:30pmET
*Sunday morning Video Q&A 10:30am-11amET (Part 1), 11am-NoonET (Part 2)
*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*
*Watch or Listen to any Tuesday Night or Sunday pre-Kick Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available right after the show closes.*
======================================================================
*2022 FFM In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*
In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.
-Our College Football Metrics subscription is still available, focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.
========================================================================
