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Video Q&A: Sunday Mornings 1030am-NoonET

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Stream info below if you need it...

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2021 Video Q&A Subscriber Live Stream Prep/Access Info

My preseason live video Q&A shows will be conducted on Amazon’s top-notch live stream service ‘Twitch’.

If you have used Twitch before, then you know what to do come showtime.

If you’ve not used Twitch before, it’s easy…

You can access/watch Twitch several different ways:

1) From your computer or tablet.

2) From your smartphone (download the Twitch App).

3) From your smart TV on the Twitch App/channel.

You can watch without having a Twitch account…it’s live/free video, but if no account (user/pw) then you cannot ask any questions in the chat side.

But if you want to be able to communicate with/ask questions of me via the chat -- make sure you set up a Twitch account…it’s free and just setup/use any username/password you desire. It will take you like two minutes or less to set up.

Quick test to find our channel by searching for ‘ffmetrics’, and you’ll see our logo/channel. If you’ve never seen a Twitch stream before -- click on any random live show happening from the Twitch homepage to see what something in action looks like.

Here’s a quick link to get straight through to the FFM channel: https://www.twitch.tv/ffmetrics

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If you have an account (user/pw), you can choose to ‘follow’ the ‘ffmetrics’ channel and then as soon as I click the button to go live…you’ll get an instant notification on your devices that we’re going live (good to get the App for your phone for that reason). If you don’t ‘follow’ the channel, then just be there at the appointed time and as soon as we’re live you’ll see us.

Twitch has an excellent ‘chat room’ function. You can ask (type into chat) me any football question you desire, and I’ll go through the stream and answer them in order.

I only ask that you make it as easy for me to answer/expand upon your question by doing the following…

If you want to send in a fantasy question, please note in shorthand your pertinent league particulars – PPR/half/non-PPR, 4 or 6pts per pass TD, any performance bonuses in your scoring (100+ yds or 300+ yds, etc.), Redraft-Dynasty-Best Ball, lineup things like ‘SuperFlex/2QB or 3WR starts, roster size, 10-team, 12-team, 16-team, etc.

You don’t have to write a book, just give me the shorthand I can figure out so that I don’t make an uneducated analysis of your situation…if need be, I’ll ask for clarification and I’ll come back to your question when I see the clarification.

*You can put (examples):

12-tm, 17-man, PPR, 6pts pass, redraft

or

10-tm, 20-man, Non-PPR, 2QB, 4pts pass w bonuses

-Try and put these quick notes before your question…anything that helps me know the situation.

I will take any football question you want to hear my take on – fantasy, draft prep, trade, rookie draft, handicapping, prop bets, things you think I’m dumb about, website clarifications, etc.

I will open the show with 2-3-4-5-6-7-8 things of interest/importance (whatever I have) to go over from my notes from that day…sometimes it’s big/huge/juicy stuff for fantasy/betting. I never know until that day. I try to keep some neat tidbits for the show opening.

After the show opens and I clear my quick notes, I start going through the questions from first to last. You can submit your question to the chat anytime and get it into the queue, and I’ll hit it when we get to the Q&A part after my openers.

All I ask is that you keep it clean, rated G for your questions/comments…and I will stream close to ‘G’ as well, so that you don’t have any issues listening with family/kids around. I’m pretty ‘G’ all the time anyways.

After the show closes, it will remain on Twitch for you to watch/listen to on-demand/anytime…if you missed anything, want to re-visit, couldn’t attend live. It stays up for a week or so.

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2021 Fantasy Three Things/Five Players from Sunday’s Games: Week 17 (Part 2 of 2)

(PART 2 of 2…)

Well, Diontae Johnson did enough to lock in some more titles last night, but Najee Harris took a few away…but more than Najee taking some away was Nick Chubb falling flat for opponents (more than FFMers owning/needing Chubb) to get a few wins that it looked for sure were not happening pre-MNF.

We got a few more wins out of last night than losses, to put a bow on a pretty satisfying season.

But we still have another week for those of you in week #2 of a two-week title game/point tally contest, and we have some where the-last-NFL-week-is-title-week folks, and we always have the yearlong point tally leagues coming to an end, finding out their winner/champion of the full season after this week.

We’ll be working all week looking at Week 17 tape and keep up with injury news for Week 18 projections -- but more importantly we’ll be looking over what teams are ‘playing’ their normal players and what teams aren’t…and that’s a tricky situation to wade thru the lies, and how much is ‘expecting to play’ really going to be…all game or a half or what? Plus, we keep up with contract incentive motivations for players for those final week sudden spike performances. So much wildness for Week 18. We’ll do our best to project it all, but just know…there’s final week curveballs (on ‘playing time’/’has something to play for’) all over. We’re staying on top of it.

The ‘Five Players’ part of this week piece with the Waivers, Sleepers, Avoids, DSTs, IDPs is the Part 2 of this report…and it’s all at the bottom section in its usual spot (yesterday’s part 1 is still here in its usual spot if you want parts 1 and 2 all in one place…it’s here.  

This is for most of you reading this…if you won your title game. If you lost, don’t click: https://youtu.be/_d7IJY1XnKM

“…bad mistakes, I’ve made a few…”

We kept fighting to the end.

FYI on our Week 18 schedule of events:

-Weekly scoring projections = starts Tuesday night, drops between 7-9pmET, and then updates every night of the week through Sunday 12:30pmET.

Video Q&A = NO Tuesday or Thursday editions, just Sunday morning this week 10:30am start. Email me if you need title help ahead of that or need something checked.

-CFM early signups (to check you’re signed in and accessing fine) start January 6th evening. Jan. 6th to 9th is the time for early sign up and making sure you can see the test messages to be ready for the reports starting to publish/post Jan 10th.

Jan. 10th we will post our first of many scouting reports for the new CFM season. And it will be the start of our all month long ‘Dynasty Rookie Draft Re-Do’ project and discussion using the 2020 and 2021 rookies…that begins with the top five and a valuation discussion for the Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) subscribers.

More detail, from me, on what CFM and DOBB are planned to be for 2021 will be posted on 1/5 for the 1/6 kickoff.

-All this week we will be doing game reports of interest from Week 17 (next week we will do some Week 18 games of interest and then all month we do all the playoff games).

The playoffs game reports are free to view on FFM all playoffs long, including discussions on FF-playoff version projections and ideas, for those that partake in those postseason Fantasy events (and more and more are).

January (and every month) is full of content at FFM and CFM, as usual. Football never rests.

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*FROM PART 1 of 2 (posted Monday 1/3)…

Well… SO many people in title games yesterday, I can hardly believe it. Actually, SO many in multiple title games I could not believe it…as you flooded my email through the week/weekend. It was an awesome sight to behold (and a lack of sleep all weekend trying to respond in time)!!

We’ve (the FFM collective) have been on a statistical tear the last few weeks…especially, obviously, the last two weeks…or we wouldn’t have been in the finals Week 17 (for most reading this, Week 17 was the finals, but we got some Week 18ers too).

All the euphoria and anticipation and magical ride so many have been on to get here…and…then we get what looks like a 50/50 week on a universal win rate. One of the lower win rate weeks of the season, as a collective for FFMers. The stories, the specific players who helped beat you (Ja’Marr) or saved you (Penny) are all over the board.

If you won your league title…it's a euphoric day. The donuts and coffee at work tasted a little better today. Life seems to be a bit brighter. You got the perfect closure. I only need to high-five you here.

However…

If you lost the title game yesterday…it’s the worst. You scratched and clawed your way to Sunday, or you steamrolled your way through your league to Sunday…and then you got whacked. And now, not only did you lose…the FF season is over. Abruptly…it always feels so abrupt at the end.  

No more combing over box scores and articles and reports prepping for next week. They took away the game you love/hate and kicked you in the gut on the way out the door with it ending with a loss. It’s so bizarre to reach the season end on a Monday. It’s like…now what do I do for the next seven months? But you’re not thinking that far ahead yet, you’re reeling from it all ending with a loss…the rug pulled out, the sucker punch…that player you hate scored big against you…and that player who carried you in-season put up a dud at the wrong time, and now we hate him.

There’s really no consolation to offer, outside of the fact that – no one knows the pain (and joy) of what you’re going through more than me…so, feel free to email me your tale of woe. Sometimes typing it out releases some steam…and my delightful responses can help digest the bitter pill. And you can email to blame me for pushing A, when B was the right call…it’s my job. And sometimes, the A-B decision doesn’t work out…occasionally horrifically so.

Beyond any direct contact we might have, let me just say to the folks who suffered a loss Sunday – it is really difficult for anyone to get to this point/to the finals of any given season. Just two teams out of 10, 12, 14, 16, 32 make it to this point of the Fantasy season…no matter how good their teams are/were. Everybody in your league, but one person, wishes they had made it to the spot you just did – you had a chance for a title, you got to plan all last week and play in the title game…where everyone else might have been prepping Amazon Christmas gift returns and taking down holiday decorations all week – you were in the thick of it. Bonus time. Extra time. Overtime. An opportunity. All the diligent work of reading, watching, listening, planning, debating, shock wins, devastating losses, key injuries, a million waiver maneuvers…you punched and counterpunched through it all and got in a position to win the title. It’s all you can ask for.

Your job is to score the most points in your league…you cannot control the schedule.

Your job is to overcome injuries and COVID and scramble your way to the playoffs if you were inundated with these issues to start the season.

Your final magic trick for the Fantasy Football season is to get to the final game.

Many of you reading this checked two or all three of those boxes in the 2021 season. You would have liked to have dotted the ‘i’ and received that prize money to close the book on the 2021 season – but being one of the final two at the very end – you did your job. You played the game as well as anyone, and then bad weather or a spike game from an opposing player, and/or an ill-timed down game from one of your stars or a key player taking his uniform off and throwing parts of it into the crowd in-game cost you the title – that doesn’t takeaway the fact that all the mental work, the strategizing, the bad draft picks, the bad waiver claims, the dumb trade, the this-or-that dilemmas you wrestled with all season got you to the very end – you made more right decisions than wrong decisions. You did your job, but this one week didn’t go your way. One day doesn’t erase what you did since August (Redraft) or since January (Dynasty) or whatever month you got cranked up.

I side with/feel for the people who lost today. I am thrilled for the winners, but honestly I am walking around in a funk this morning (as I type this) thinking about those teams we all had that were gonna win this week, but inexplicably lost. I was so hoping for a monster event where we all won like at a 70-80% win-rate and could just pour verbal champagne on each other today, but even then…I’d probably be thinking about those ones that got away.

I really need to enjoy the wins more than lamenting the losses.

I really need to take a breath, brush off the dirt of getting knocked down/losing in some leagues Sunday and stand back up and reflect that – this was a pretty damn good season. A lot of hard work and fancy maneuvers and working with crazy players like Rashaad Penny, D’Onta Foreman, Cordarrelle Patterson. I’ll never forget this season…maybe more than any other.

Wrapping this intro section up, I have an odd thought/statement that came to mind. I shouldn’t say/type it but it’s what came to mind, as tawdry as it is…it just fit. I’ll clean it up a touch from my original wording…

Wrapping this week up: If you made it to Week 17 titles, win or lose…we really ‘McGuyver’d’ the shit out of this season.

We should be proud of that/it wasn’t luck. It wasn’t a red carpet rolled out. We didn’t go wire-to-wire with the perfect draft and none of our key players ever getting hurt…as we just waltzed to the title. No. It was so many little decisions along the way…we outmaneuvered all the teams/owners to get here/to the end. It sucks if you didn’t cash the final check, but you got to the title – that’s a pretty major accomplishment facing a bunch of people trying to do the same to you, trying to stop you from getting to the finals.  

You won’t fully appreciate it now, but you will in a week or so – we really did ‘McGuyver’ the shit out of this thing this year. You did that. I did that. We did that. It was the opposite of luck. We’re all pretty damn good at this. Title or not.

Well, that’s the FINAL Three Things/Five Players of the 2021 season…the ‘season is essentially over’ edition. Well, it’s kinda the last one…I’m releasing the Week 17 edition in two parts. Part one today, part two tomorrow. More on that at the end of this part one.

We will be reporting out on Week 17 (and Week 18) games all week/month, prepping for Week 18 projections all week (like normal) for those in title games or the 2nd game of a two-week point tally contest or just an all-season point tally league…or for those using them for DFS, etc.

January is not the end of football work for FFM and CFM. Honestly, it’s getting to be one of the 2-3 busiest work months of the year with 2022 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting starting, the Senior Bowl, the NFL playoffs. Football really never ends – that’s why you should all be in Dynasty leagues to keep the party alive all year ‘round. Fresh content on FFM or CFM every day all year is our goal/duty. More on what we will be covering and what to expect from CFM or Dynasty Offseason will be reported out on in the next day or so.

Good luck to those who still have their games up in the air going into MNF tonight. The more Diontae Johnson scores over 10 FF points (in any format of scoring) the more titles will be secured…or stolen back from current deficits. Whatever you need tonight, good luck!!

https://youtu.be/H94vSQK8CIA

Diontae is going for 20+ tonight…because nothing FF-bad will ever happen to you, not on MY WATCH!

NO Tuesday VIDEO Q&A this week, but I will do a Sunday morning version…the final for 2021 season, for sit-start questions or Dynasty stash final grabs, etc.

  ===== THREE THINGS (from Sunday games)…  =====

*These are my first reactions from the live watches last week, and opinions/scouting can change when I watch the tape back all week.

ATL-BUF

 -- The weather WAS a factor here…both QBs combined for just 317 yards passing and 0 TDs/3 INTs. Josh Allen (11-26 for 120 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs, 15-81-2) made up for it on the ground, as he does.

It’s amazing to me that a big framed, 4.7+ running QB is one of the best running QBs in the league. I mean, I have more faith with Allen on the run than I do guys like Kyler or Lamar…plus throw in the arm ability – and Allen as the best all-around weapon QB for FF 2022 and beyond is a debate for the offseason…and as the 2021 League MVP, but that will NEVER happen.

 -- Kyle Pitts (2-69-0/4) took a short pass and ran past defenders for a 61-yard play. He did not catch a pass the rest of the game (missed some of it with a tight hammy). It was good play…it was simple play…but it’s too simple for Arthur Smith, who continues to defy logic by not doing anything special to get Pitts the ball in unique ways.

This 2021 rookie head coaching class is an abomination…and Arthur Smith may be its worst rep still employed. Which makes you worry about Pitts in 2022 with this joke of an offensive mind.

 -- Art Smith has also found a way to ruin Cordarrelle Patterson (9-28-0, 2-24-0/2)…CP was one of the best weapons in the NFL for the first half of the season, as a WR-RB-WR weapon that confused defenses. Smith helped out his opponents by taking CPatt out of the passing game and making him a power RB for 10-15 carries for nothing each week. What CP does in his 2022 free agency will be interesting – does he stay at the only place that has ever given him a real chance…or bolt for (empty) promises elsewhere? I’m guessing he stays, but…

NYG-CHI

 -- Watching nine games at a time Sunday afternoon for the 1pmET games, this was the game I paid the least attention to. Four completed passes by the Giants in this game. Unreal. There’s no reason it will be any better next week. You wanna start an NYG player for FF Week 18…God bless you.

 -- Darnell Mooney (7-69-1/13) has established himself as the Bears true #1 WR…but that’s in the Matt Nagy regime. Will he be with a new staff? Maybe. He and Justin Fields seem to have a real connection – and Mooney has been ‘the guy’ for Fields, Dalton, and Foles this season. Allen Robinson (4-35-0/6) hasn’t been close.

 -- Will Joe Judge get dumped? I keep looking for any NYG note to give from this game…and I got nothing, so that’s not good for Judge. The Giants get worse every week. Judge hired Jason Garrett…his fault. Judge has been fine with Mike Glennon (4-11 for 24 yards, 0 TD.2 INTs) as his backup, and now it’s biting him. I like Judge…enough to give another year, but he’s made it very tough to support the way this team has died to the finish.

Freddie Kitchens will never be considered for an O-C job ever again.

KC-CIN

 -- Watching what Cincy did with Ja’Marr Chase (11-266-3/12) here compared to what KC did with Tyreek Hill (6-40-0/10)…it should preclude Eric Bieniemy from ever getting a head coaching job interview again. Bieniemy shouldn’t even be an NFL offensive coordinator.

I assume Bieniemy will be back with KC in 2022, and then we have to start discounting Tyreek back some more because 2021 was Tyreek’s worst season (to my eyes) since he became a #1 WR. All the same characters back in 2022 = I don’t see how it will change/improve. Mahomes/Tyreek gets a little more ‘off’ every year…while Rodgers-Davante only gets better. Oh, they’ll pay lip service to ‘changes’ in the offense in KC…but they won’t actually do anything different. The ‘genius’ playbook is SET IN STONE.

The Andy Reid coaching tree is rotten to the stump.

 -- Joe Burrow (30-39 for 446 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) just backed up my claims from last week – he’s a better NFL QB than Patrick Mahomes (26-35 for 259 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). FF-wise, not so sure Burrow will be better…but in NFL teams, I take Burrow. Joe Burrow is the real ‘next Brady’ hope of the football world. He’s also a left tackle/upgraded line away from being a top 3-ish FF QB in 2022 and beyond.

 -- Watching Travis Kelce (5-25-1/7) this season…I can see the ‘juice’ leaving his body. He’s no longer ‘that’ Kelce (unless he has a secret injury he’s working through). Still good…just not ‘great’ anymore. He won’t get any younger ahead… Father Time catches up to everyone…except Brady.

We’ll be discussing Kelce’s Dynasty value and all the 2022 Dynasty values in our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription starting in January with CFM (get as a Combo for the best deal!).

LV-IND

 -- I had hoped to steal a decent FF start out of Foster Moreau (1-9-0/1) this game but he burned me again. The Colts have been weak against the TE, but Vegas didn’t take advantage…which, they won, so who cares. No more Moreau talk for Week 18…probably.

 -- Carson Wentz (16-27 for 148 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) chokes in another big spot, per usual. He does get Jacksonville Week 18, so he might actually have a decent game. Not a QB1 talent or QB1 output even in the BEST situation of O-Line and run game support he could ever be in.

 -- I’m glad to see Zay Jones (8-120-0/10) start breaking out in the NFL. He was always a talented WR, but when you don’t explode quickly in your NFL career…you get forgotten fast. Jones has revived a career that was barren…so there’s hope for forgotten Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/2)…like 3-4 years from now, at the Zay pace.

JAX-NE

 -- Damien Harris (9-35-2, 1-12-0/1) got nicked up again in-game…hamstring. I would guess Bill Belichick will keep this RB committee plan going into 2022 because Harris may be his best back, but he has gotten hurt in-game and missed time or missed the next game seemingly every other game this season. He’s played well, but he has an allergic reaction to staying healthy.

 -- Dare Ogunbowale (9-36-0, 2-32-1/2) had the kinda game I figured but he did get the screen pass TD late to allow him a respectable/’meh’ FF start for the week. He’ll get one more shot next week, but I bet Ryquell Armstead (6-28-0, 1-6-0/2) gets a few touches to see if they have anything here.

 -- I thought Kristian Wilkerson (4-42-2/8) had the best chemistry with Mac Jones (22-30 for 227 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) in the preseason, but it didn’t mean anything in September – Wilkerson got cut, then put on the practice squad. He’s a pretty talented UDFA prospect who might have a shot at a future in 2022 or 2023. He’s not a superstar prospect, just very solid/stable/good at his craft WR with grit and some athleticism.

TB-NYJ

 -- Well, I didn’t think Antonio Brown (3-26-0/5) could do anything to get himself booted off the Bucs team…but AB always finds a way to achieve the impossible. We’ll get into the AB thing deeper during the week, but AB going down and out springs Cyril Grayson (6-81-1/8) as his probable replacement…a guy we talked about this week on the TB game report from Week 16, and a guy trying to crack into our Dynasty Stash top 175 (he will this next run).

And the AB meltdown boosts the future of Jaelon Darden in that AB role. AB is gone, Chris Godwin could be gone…there are job openings with TB12, suddenly, maybe…in 2022.

 -- The Braxton Berrios (8-65-1/12, 2-12-1) was live and in full effect Week 17…he could not be stopped, early on…then he disappeared. Will Berrios get a shot at the main slot WR job in 2022? Probably not.

Berrios now has 4 TDs this season…tied with A.J. Brown and D.J. Moore among others.

 -- Ronald Jones (10-26-0, 1-1-0/1) got hurt in this game, so Ke’Shawn Vaughn (8-31-0, 2-14-0/3) will potentially be the lead RB for Week 18…which may spring his career back on track. A real opportunity to show what he has with RoJo and Fournette both set to be free agents in 2022.

MIA-TEN

 -- Finally!! Finally, Mike Vrabel is giving into the simple plan of D’Onta Foreman (26-132-1) doing a poor man’s Derrick Henry impression to carry the offense.

The crazy thing about all this is…Foreman was out there to be had by any team all season, but it was the Henry injury that sent the Titans into desperation to sign him midseason, and it has saved their division title and #1 seed hopes. Foreman was overlooked by all NFL teams…and now look at him. In other news, Jacksonville started Dare Ogunbowale this week.

 -- Tua Tagovailoa (18-38 for 205 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) is going to flop to the finish and will bring up all the is Tua ‘the guy’ chatter again, as it should. Tua cannot handle aggressive defenses and that means he’s not a legit NFL franchise QB. Deshaun Watson could be headed here after all. If not Watson, someone else…via draft or trade.

 -- If Tua is replaced…Jaylen Waddle’s (3-47-0/7) future value gets shaken up/restricted. Waddle is fine enough/solid, but Tua’s ‘baby throws’ give Waddle a PPR life most are not afforded. It would be taken away if Tua is replaced/dumped.

PHI-WSH

 -- Another week, another time the Eagles just work better with Boston Scott (14-47-2, 4-39-0/4) and Jordan Howard (11-26-0, 0-0-0/1) as the tag team duo...working better than Miles Sanders.

If Philly makes the playoffs, they will 100% activate Sanders as fast as they can and jam him right into the starting lineup and Scott will not hardly see the field.

 -- Jaret Patterson (12-57-1, 5-41-0/5) looked pretty solid as the emergency starter this week. Patterson tore up the mid-majors at the University of Buffalo and then tested terrible at his Pro Day and went undrafted. He has grinded his way to ‘Antonio Gibson handcuff’.

Patterson is more proof that one cannot scout by metrics/analytics alone. Patterson will likely always be ‘the other guy’ on every team he’s on. Just there for emergency, but he can hang in this league on vision and toughness making up for a lack of ‘juice’ in his legs.

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (1-8-0/2) ran full speed, face first into a camera/cameraman early in the game…and it knocked him and the camera guy out of the game. John Bates (3-35-0/4) may get a full start Week 18 v. NYG.

LAR-BAL

 -- Matthew Stafford (26-35 for 309 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) tried his best to blow this game, because…that’s what he does. But, fortunately for him, he was facing a torn and tattered Ravens defense and the Rams got the win in the final minute. I don’t want to hear anything about Stafford as MVP…he gets zero of my consideration for the award.

 -- Another week, another Rashod Bateman (7-58-0/10) is outshining Marquise Brown (3-28-0/8) event. I wanna say that Bateman is too good to have me thinking/projecting that he’ll never get past Brown (in targets) but I also know this Bateman pop is happening with Tyler Huntley/Josh Johnson. Lamar Jackson, I believe, is tied eternally to Marquise. I need to see differently to believe it. I want to believe in Bateman. Lamar should believe.    But I don’t believe in Lamar…or, more importantly, that Lamar will change his targeting preferences.

 -- Such a huge opportunity for Van Jefferson (4-63-0/5)…a WR on a higher volume passing game offense with the defense all focused on Kupp-OBJ, and yet Jefferson cannot climb to another level. Jefferson does not look ‘good’ to my scouting eye, and his numbers are showing it – he’s caught 48 of 86 targets (55.8%) this season with ‘the great’ Matt Stafford…that isn’t going to cut it for a guy whose big attribute is ‘hands’.

Jefferson split snaps with Ben Skowronek (2-18-0/2)…assumedly because Van is failing.

DEN-LAC

 -- How the Chargers shutdown the Denver run game; I have no idea. But it happened. The NFL is a fickle beast to try and tame/predict. Last week, LAC’s run D was the worst I’d seen in the 2021 season from any team, any week…then Week 17 they’re the 85 Bears. Because of that, Javonte Williams (14-30-0, 1-2-0/1) flopped as did Melvin Gordon (10-43-0, 3-29-0/4), who scored a TD but it got called back to kill him off for FF for sure.

They’ll probably be stuffed again by KC next week, and then we’ll get a new head coach in 2022 where Javonte will take his rightful spot as full lead RB.

 -- Noah Fant (6-92-1/7) made a short catch, and then stopped…and then accelerated (past 4-5 defenders like they were standing still/shocked)…it was one of the best things I’ve seen from a non-Pitts TE this season. A reminder on Fant as a serious elite-potential TE…if he can get a real offensive head coach and O-C, and QB.

 -- Speaking of beauty…Mike Williams (3-63-1/4) made a fantastic deep ball catch and launch into the end zone TD, reminding us all that he was one of the best WRs of 2021 season…that was suppressed by limited targets by his coach’s (HC and O-C) terrible offensive planning.

Two of the worst offensive coordinators I witnessed this season were in this game: Shurmur and Lombardi. They both need to go, but only one probably will.

HOU-SF

 -- Elijah Mitchell (21-119-0, 2-11-2/2) returned from injury, and was thought not to be 100%...but is the heavy lead anyway -- and he was really good, again. Mitchell IS Shanahan’s guy. No debate. No Trey Sermon talk. Mitchell is the RB1 hope for FF 2022 as the 49ers lead guy.

 -- Brandin Cooks (7-66-1/11) has a year remaining on his deal…a $16M+ final year (or $7M+ to cut). Will he be a Texan in 2022, or should they move him to build for the future? My guess is they will keep him to be a mentor and BFF for Davis Mills (21-32 for 163 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) if David Culley stays, but if Culley is gone…could be up in the air/Cooks on the move again, and he’d be in-demand.

 -- How did Trey Lance (16-23 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 8-31-0) look here? My live look first reaction = I wasn’t that impressed, but I need to rewatch it and scout the tape in detail to digest it all. And I will, as will Ross, and we’ll weigh in on ‘Ross’s guy’ this week.

ARI-DAL

 -- Michael Gallup (3-36-1/4) went down in this game, and he’s likely got an ACL…going right into his free agency. That’s a shame. Cedric Wilson (6-35-1/6) goes in-play as a Flex option Week 18. Wilson has been productive most every time he’s asked to fill-in as a starter.

 -- In his last 10 games, Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for a high of 52-yards in a game. Seven of 10 games under 50 yards rushing. Are we seeing the end of the Ezekiel Elliott era of him being ‘elite’? It goes fast with RBs. I have the same feeling about starting Zeke for FF as I do Saquon, right now…and that’s ‘I should sit them, but I can’t’.

Elliott is set to make $18.2M in 2022…and can’t be cut, per se – or it would be a $30M+ hit to the CAP to do so. 2023 is more the time we might see Elliott being debated to be released. 2024 is for sure, if it doesn’t happen prior.

 -- I thought this might be a decent week for Antoine Wesley (4-30-2/5), and it was. Not huge targeting…but he’s the guy Kyler tends to look for in the end zone because he’s a 6’4”+ target for him. 3 TDs in his last 2 games for Wesley. The momentum should continue into Week 18 v. SEA.

CAR-NO

 -- Taysom Hill (17-28 for 222 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 12-45-0) returned and had his typical Taysom game…10+ rushes, 200 or so yards passing…but he didn’t get a late, long TD to make his FF day worthwhile. I’ve not loved what I’ve seen from Taysom for FF…he’s been good/stable/a winner…but just not rolling up the FF numbers on purpose – usually saved by a late fluky play for a big FF score moment. He’s fading into high-end QB2 land.

 -- FYI, Sam Darnold (17-26 for 132 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is beyond awful…not helped by an aggressive, emerging top defense in the Saints crushing him. Darnold v. TB Week 18 probably isn’t going to be great for Sam either.

 -- That Saints-DST…7 sacks, 10 TFLs in this game. The Panthers are so dead. Bucs-DST should tee off on them in the finale. The Saints-DST will squash the Falcons Week 18.

DET-SEA

 -- D’Andre Swift (4-32-0, 2-7-0/3) fought his way back from injury and practiced in full all week, and then got into this game…and didn’t start…and was barely used in the game. A major, purposeful snub by Dan Campbell. There may be some trouble in paradise there?

 -- Rashaad Penny (25-170-2, 2-15-0/3)…the shocking savior of FF 2021 for many FFMers. Who would have thunk it? Shows how important pining over all those big name RBs was in the preseason. It will be interesting to see where Penny winds up in free agency…might be back in Seattle? Why not?

Wherever he goes…I’ll pitch in some GoFundMe money as a thanks for bailing us out for FF just when we needed the help.

 -- You know what I thought about when watching D.K. Metcalf’s (6-63-3/9) big Week 17 game here? Not ‘wow, he’s so awesome!’ More…I think he’s my leading contender for ‘next Antonio Brown WR flake out guy’. He has some issues, man. He’s ready to fight everyone. He’s acting out more and more when he’s disappointed by little things. Super gifted…super troubled/arrogant/immature. Also in the running for that honor: Kadarius Toney.

MIN-GB

 -- Memo to self for the future: There is no level of cold that affects Aaron Rodgers (29-38 for 288 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 2-8-0) or Davante Adams (11-136-1/14) at Lambeau. The two of them played a game in ‘feels like -5 degrees’ like they were in a dome.

 -- Nothing Dalvin Cook (9-13-0, 3-0-0/3) could do here…no Kirk Cousins opened up the GB defense to stack the box…and they did so to perfection.

 -- Sean Mannion (22-36 for 189 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) got his audition for future NFL work, and despite Cris Collinsworth trying to con himself and the public into how great Mannion was playing…he wasn’t, and he’ll always be a career backup.

You see what Zimmer thinks of Kellen Mond (2-3 for 5 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) by not turning to him after halftime. For good reason, Mond stinks. He’s the next regime’s problem.

From a Yahoo report…

Asked after the Week 17 game whether Mond might get an extended look in the season finale, Zimmer didn't mince words.

“Not particularly,’’ the coach said.

Mond entered the Green Bay game on the Vikings' penultimate possession after replacement starter Sean Mannion was hurt briefly, completing 2 of 3 passes for 5 yards. It was Mond's first regular-season action after the Vikings used the 66th overall pick on him in April.

But on the final drive, Mannion was back out there. They were the only two active quarterbacks, with starter Kirk Cousins in the COVID protocol.

Asked why the Vikings might not want to see more of Mond against the Bears, Zimmer offered a pretty damning response.

“I see him every day (in practice),’’ he said.

Ouch.

The usual 2nd-half off the Three Things/Five Players will post tomorrow…giving me more time to prep for my best projections of Week 18 situations – we got places where starters will rest some and we got players playing for contract incentives, etc.

Look for the usual section of this report in ‘Part Two’ tomorrow.  

A fitting outro for the week…RIP: https://youtu.be/tScJ1ik6peI

PART 2 of 2, Five Players……

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS…  =====

*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

1) RB Jaret Patterson, WSH (Grade: A)

Should get the full start again with Antonio Gibson likely held out to heal his broken body…but with Ron Rivera playing to ‘finish strong’, ‘who knows’ if he’d try to limp Gibson out there? Patterson should get a full start v. NYG, which is nice.

2) RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Grade: B)

Sanders is very likely out. Howard-Scott both have COVID, so unsure if they’ll get off the list by Saturday (if it were Sunday, more likely…but they play Sat.). It all could leave Kenneth Gainwell with the full start in a mostly meaningless game for Philly.

3) QB Trey Lance, SF (Grade: B)

Built for FF scoring, but not ready as an NFL passer…and this is a must-win SF game v. the Rams…a Rams team that doesn’t really need this, so not sure how full throttle they’re going. But Lance should get FF points regardless of how aggressive the Rams D is here.

Jimmy G. is trying to get back to play is what holds Lance back from being an ‘A’ pickup.

4) RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Grade: C)

In line to get a lead role with/if Ronald Jones is out…and a tasty matchup with Carolina. If Jones is gonna play, it knocks this grade down to C-D levels, but Jones should be held out to get ready for the playoffs.

Vaughn himself is questionable (robs) so we may or may not see him here is what holds his grade back from being an A.

5) WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Grade: C-)

Starting to come into his own AND is seeing much more targeting the past few weeks…finally getting treated right. Good matchup with ATL.

6) WR Braxton Berrios, NYJ (grade C-/D+)

The leader of the Jets WR group is killing it the past two weeks. Tougher matchup v. BUF (if they try) and some minor risk Elijah Moore or Jamison Crowder are back. Weather may not be great for this game either.

7) WR Zay Jones, LV (Grade: D+)

Suddenly, Zay is Derek Carr’s BFF target…right up there with Hunter Renfrow. Zay is a good WR talent and is finally getting respect again. Indoors v. LAC Week 18 is a good thing. If Waller is back, it’s a hit to Zay Jones’s upside.

-----------------------------------------------

***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

1) WR Kristian Wilkerson, NE

Two TD game last week…albeit against Jacksonville.

I like Wilkerson, but I don’t think he’s breaking through as a star performer right now – just a guy open/uncovered vs. the cluster-F that was the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.

2) RB Rex Burkhead, HOU

The Titans are getting great against the run and are in a must-win game this week v. HOU. No chance Rex does anything.

3) RB Austin Walter, NYJ

He’s terrible and facing the Bills, if he does get a start if Carter is out…but splitting touches with Ty Johnson in the passing game…and Tevin Coleman could be back and bump Walter all the way out of any real work this week.

4) RB Duke Johnson, MIA  

I don’t trust him or the MIA O-Line and facing NE…and with Lindsay or Gaskin apt to get touches.

5) RB Le’Veon Bell, TB

He looks so shot, it’s not even funny. If RoJo is out, Vaughn will get the work…not Bell, is my belief. But Vaughn is having some issues as well (ribs), so Le’Veon may get extra touches…with Kenjon Barner and possibly Gio Bernard.

------------------------------

***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

***We’re past most trade deadlines now. If trades are still open in your league, you’ll get some of our ideas from the daily game reports. Dynasty leagues, as we get deeper into the season we’ll be discussing players to consider for trade in the offseason in the game reports.***

The Buy Low Players will resume again Week 1-2 next season!

-------------------------

***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walkaway.*

***We’re past most trade deadlines now. If trades are still open in your league, you’ll get some of our ideas from the daily game reports. Dynasty leagues, as we get deeper into the season we’ll be discussing players to consider for trade in the offseason in the game reports.***

The Sell High players will resume again Week 1-2 next season!

------------------------------

***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players

1) RB Patrick Taylor, GB

Green Bay has the #1 seed locked up. Not sure how much, or if, they will play Jones-Dillon. If Patrick Taylor gets the majority of touches…he’s a very good NFL RB prospect, a big-guy banger facing the weak rushing defense of the Detroit Lions Week 18.

2) TE John Bates, WSH

If Ricky Seals-Jones’s injury Week 17 has him out Week 18…Bates would get a full start vs. dying NYG.

3) WR Cyril Grayson, TB

With AB gone, it is Grayson stepping up the past two weeks now as a real speedster/playmaker. Whether he works with a little Brady and a lot of Gabbert, or a lot of Brady…Grayson is a one play FF scoring event waiting to happen. And he needs more work/snaps to get ready to be an impact player for the playoffs with all the TB WR injuries.

4) Jonathan Ward, ARI (or Eno Benjamin, ARI)

I think Arizona is going to shut everyone key down for Week 18. They have nothing left to play for. They are locked in to the #5 seed. Conner/Edmonds likely sit out the game. Which RB will start in their place? I think it will be a Ward-Benjamin split, but I believe Ward might get the role as the lead ballcarrier and Benjamin as more the 3rd-down guy. Just a hunch from things I know/see. But both will play…it’s not ALL Eno.

5) TE Tyree Jackson, PHI

Dallas Goedert on COVID list…Tyree could get a 50%+ snap share and see his first real targeting of the season in Week 18. He’s Darren Waller 2.0. -- only better.

---------------------------------

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

1) RB Craig Reynolds, DET

Swift came back Week 17…and he worked as a 3rd-stringer at first, but then saw more time as the game went on. Jamaal Williams was the lead. Reynolds a forgotten #2. It looks like Reynolds is going to be a ghost for Swift, and especially Jamaal v. GB this week. No ‘Week 18, the backup gets a big run’ opportunity here, I don’t believe.

2) WR Courtland Sutton, DEN

The Broncos had no WRs but Sutton last week, and he still couldn’t put up a bigger FF performance. The WR COVID gang will be back this week and Sutton will continue to disappoint.

3) RB Myles Gaskin, MIA

He’s totally lost his job…and lost even 2nd-string work it looks like (to Lindsay). What a rapid fall from grace.

4) WR Van Jefferson, LAR

I think Sean McVay has had enough of the drops. Ben Skowronek is going to start splitting with Van J. as the #3 WR and may send VJ to the bench ultimately.

5) TE Evan Engram, NYG

Engram was preferred by Mike Glennon…and that was mostly FF-meaningless. Now, Glennon is gone…so it’s sure death for EE in the finale.

--------------------------------

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS (UNDER 50% owned options)***--

1) Titans-DST

Tennessee’s defense has been heating up for weeks…now, they get Houston Week 18 with the game being MUST WIN for the Titans (for a #1 seed/bye). They will likely play out of their minds.

2) Washington-DST

Facing Jake Fromm, even in Week 18 with some backup defenders playing some, is FF-money.

-------------------

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDP’s whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

1) DB M.J. Stewart, TB 

Started the last three weeks with 11-10-6 total tackles in those games with 3 PDs, 2 TFLs and a FF. Should be in for another start Week 18. I don’t think he’s a star talent, but he’s playing like his life depends upon it lately.

2) LB Troy Reeder, LAR

The Rams lost Ernest Jones two games ago and now Reeder is the main man in the middle and he’s a 10+ total tackle threat every week…with TFL potential. His last two weeks as ‘the man’: 8.0 total tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.5 sacks, 0.5 PDs per game.

3) LB Frankie Luvu, CAR

A season/career high 9 tackles Week 17…7.0 tackles, 2.0 TFLs, 1.0 QB hits per game the past two weeks. And he’s only playing 50% (approx.) of the snaps in those games. Might he get an 80%+ snap opportunity Week 18?

4) DE Josh Sweat, PHI

Sweat is quite the streaky player, but in case you lost track of him lately – he’s back in hot streak mode.

4.0 sacks, 3 PDs, 1 TFL, 4 QB hits in his last four games. He had just 3.5 sacks his first 12 games of the season, but he’s coming on strong now.

5) LB Elerson Smith, NYG

His numbers aren’t popping (0.0 sacks this season), but two things are starting to happen…

1) The coaches are starting to talk about his progress in the media, that’s a good sign.

2) QB hits registered in each of his last two games. He might get a stronger amount of snaps Week 18…and might have a game. He’s a really intriguing, talented edge/all-around OLB defender.

Outro: For most of us, the Fantasy 2021 season is over… https://youtu.be/T1XgFsitnQw

2021 Fantasy Three Things/Five Players from Sunday’s Games: Week 17 (Part 1 of 2)

Well… SO many people are/were in title games yesterday/tonight, I can hardly believe it. Actually, SO many in multiple title game appearances to deal with – I could not believe it…as you flooded my email with them through the week/weekend. It was an awesome sight to behold (and, happily, a lack of sleep all weekend trying to respond in time)!!

We’ve (the FFM collective) have been on a statistical tear the last few weeks…especially, obviously, the last two weeks…or we wouldn’t have been in the finals Week 17 (for most reading this, Week 17 was the finals, but we got some Week 18ers too).

All the euphoria and anticipation and magical ride so many have been on to get here…and…then we get what looks like a 50/50 week on a universal win rate. One of the lower win rate weeks of the season, as a collective for FFMers. The stories, the specific players who helped beat you (Ja’Marr) or saved you (Penny) are all over the board.

If you won your league title…it's a euphoric day. The donuts and coffee at work tasted a little better today. Life seems to be a bit brighter. You got the perfect closure. I only need to high-five you here.

However…

If you lost the title game yesterday…it’s the worst. You scratched and clawed your way to Sunday, or you steamrolled your way through your league to Sunday…and then you got whacked. And now, not only did you lose…the FF season is over. Abruptly…it always feels so abrupt at the end.  

No more combing over box scores and articles and reports prepping for next week. They took away the game you love/hate and kicked you in the gut on the way out the door with it ending with a loss. It’s so bizarre to reach the season end on a Monday. It’s like…now what do I do for the next seven months? But you’re not thinking that far ahead yet, you’re reeling from it all ending with a loss…the rug pulled out, the sucker punch…that player you hate scored big against you…and that player who carried you in-season put up a dud at the wrong time, and now we hate him.

There’s really no consolation to offer, outside of the fact that – no one knows the pain (and joy) of what you’re going through more than me…so, feel free to email me your tale of woe. Sometimes typing it out releases some steam…and my delightful responses can help digest the bitter pill. And you can email to blame me for pushing A, when B was the right call…it’s my job. And sometimes, the A-B decision doesn’t work out…occasionally horrifically so.

Beyond any direct contact we might have, let me just say to the folks who suffered a loss Sunday – it is really difficult for anyone to get to this point/to the finals of any given season. Just two teams out of 10, 12, 14, 16, 32 make it to this point of the Fantasy season…no matter how good their teams are/were. Everybody in your league, but one person, wishes they had made it to the spot you just did – you had a chance for a title, you got to plan all last week and play in the title game…where everyone else might have been prepping Amazon Christmas gift returns and taking down holiday decorations all week – you were in the thick of it. Bonus time. Extra time. Overtime. An opportunity. All the diligent work of reading, watching, listening, planning, debating, shock wins, devastating losses, key injuries, a million waiver maneuvers…you punched and counterpunched through it all and got in a position to win the title. It’s all you can ask for.

Your job is to score the most points in your league…you cannot control the schedule.

Your job is to overcome injuries and COVID and scramble your way to the playoffs if you were inundated with these issues to start the season.

Your final magic trick for the Fantasy Football season is to get to the final game.

Many of you reading this checked two or all three of those boxes in the 2021 season. You would have liked to have dotted the ‘i’ and received that prize money to close the book on the 2021 season – but being one of the final two at the very end – you did your job. You played the game as well as anyone, and then bad weather or a spike game from an opposing player, and/or an ill-timed down game from one of your stars or a key player taking his uniform off and throwing parts of it into the crowd in-game cost you the title – that doesn’t takeaway the fact that all the mental work, the strategizing, the bad draft picks, the bad waiver claims, the dumb trade, the this-or-that dilemmas you wrestled with all season got you to the very end – you made more right decisions than wrong decisions. You did your job, but this one week didn’t go your way. One day doesn’t erase what you did since August (Redraft) or since January (Dynasty) or whatever month you got cranked up.

I side with/feel for the people who lost today. I am thrilled for the winners, but honestly I am walking around in a funk this morning (as I type this) thinking about those teams we all had that were gonna win this week, but inexplicably lost. I was so hoping for a monster event where we all won like at a 70-80% win-rate and could just pour verbal champagne on each other today, but even then…I’d probably be thinking about those ones that got away.

I really need to enjoy the wins more than lamenting the losses.

I really need to take a breath, brush off the dirt of getting knocked down/losing in some leagues Sunday and stand back up and reflect that – this was a pretty damn good season. A lot of hard work and fancy maneuvers and working with crazy players like Rashaad Penny, D’Onta Foreman, Cordarrelle Patterson. I’ll never forget this season…maybe more than any other.

Wrapping this intro section up, I have an odd thought/statement that came to mind. I shouldn’t say/type it but it’s what came to mind, as tawdry as it is…it just fit. I’ll clean it up a touch from my original wording…

Wrapping this week up: If you made it to Week 17 titles, win or lose…we really ‘McGuyver’d’ the shit out of this season.

We should be proud of that/it wasn’t luck. It wasn’t a red carpet rolled out. We didn’t go wire-to-wire with the perfect draft and none of our key players ever got hurt…as we just waltzed to the title. No. It was so many little decisions along the way…we outmaneuvered all the teams/owners to get here/to the end. It sucks if you didn’t cash the final check, but you got to the title – that’s a pretty major accomplishment facing a bunch of people trying to do the same to you, trying to stop you from getting to the finals.  

You won’t fully appreciate it now, but you will in a week or so – we really did ‘McGuyver’ the shit out of this thing this year. You did that. I did that. We did that. It was the opposite of luck. We’re all pretty damn good at this. Title or not.

Well, that’s the FINAL Three Things/Five Players of the 2021 season…the ‘season is essentially over’ edition. Well, it’s kinda the last one…I’m releasing the Week 17 edition in two parts. Part one today, aprt two tomorrow. More on that at the end of this part one.

We will be reporting out on Week 17 (and Week 18) games all week/month, prepping for Week 18 projections all week (like normal) for those in title games or the 2nd game of a two-week point tally contest or just an all-season point tally league…or for those using them for DFS, etc.

January is not the end of football work for FFM and CFM. Honestly, it’s getting to be one of the 2-3 busiest work months of the year with 2022 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting starting, the Senior Bowl, the NFL playoffs. Football really never ends – that’s why you should all be in Dynasty leagues to keep the party alive all year ‘round. Fresh content on FFM or CFM every day all year is our goal/duty. More on what we will be covering and what to expect from CFM or Dynasty Offseason will be reported out in the next day or so.

Good luck to those who still have their games up in the air going into MNF tonight. The more Diontae Johnson scores over 10 FF points (in any format of scoring) the more titles will be secured…or stolen back from current deficits. Whatever you need tonight, good luck!!

https://youtu.be/H94vSQK8CIA

Diontae is going for 20+ tonight…because nothing FF-bad will ever happen to you, not on MY WATCH!

NO Tuesday VIDEO Q&A this week, but I will do a Sunday morning version…the final for 2021 season, for sit-start questions or Dynasty stash final grabs, etc.

  ===== THREE THINGS (from Sunday games)…  =====

*These are my first reactions from the live watches last week, and opinions/scouting can change when I watch the tape back all week.

ATL-BUF

 -- The weather WAS a factor here…both QBs combined for just 317 yards passing and 0 TDs/3 INTs. Josh Allen (11-26 for 120 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs, 15-81-2) made up for it on the ground, as he does.

It’s amazing to me that a big framed, 4.7+ running QB is one of the best running QBs in the league. I mean, I have more faith with Allen on the run than I do guys like Kyler or Lamar…plus throw in the arm ability – and Allen as the best all-around weapon QB for FF 2022 and beyond is a debate for the offseason (as we argued he was right there with Majhomes this past offseason)…and he should be debated as the 2021 League MVP, but that will NEVER happen.

 -- Kyle Pitts (2-69-0/4) took a short pass and ran past defenders for a 61-yard play. He did not catch a pass the rest of the game (missed some of it with a tight hammy). It was good play…it was simple play…but it’s too simple for Arthur Smith, who continues to defy logic by not doing anything special to get Pitts the ball in unique ways.

This 2021 rookie head coaching class is an abomination…and Arthur Smith may be its worst rep still employed. Which makes you worry about Pitts in 2022 with this joke of an offensive mind.

 -- Art Smith has also found a way to ruin Cordarrelle Patterson (9-28-0, 2-24-0/2)…CP was one of the best weapons in the NFL for the first half of the season, as a WR-RB-WR weapon that confused defenses. Smith helped out his opponents by taking CPatt out of the passing game and making him a power RB for 10-15 carries for nothing each week. What CP does in his 2022 free agency will be interesting – does he stay at the only place that has ever given him a real chance…or bolt for (empty) promises elsewhere? I’m guessing he stays, but…

NYG-CHI

 -- Watching nine games at a time Sunday afternoon for the 1pmET games, this was the game I paid the least attention to. Four completed passes by the Giants in this game. Unreal. There’s no reason it will be any better next week. You wanna start an NYG player for FF Week 18…God bless you.

 -- Darnell Mooney (7-69-1/13) has established himself as the Bears true #1 WR…but that’s in the Matt Nagy regime. Will he be with a new staff? Maybe. He and Justin Fields seem to have a real connection – and Mooney has been ‘the guy’ for Fields, Dalton, and Foles this season. Allen Robinson (4-35-0/6) hasn’t been close.

 -- Will Joe Judge get dumped? I keep looking for any NYG note to give from this game…and I got nothing, so that’s not good for Judge. The Giants get worse every week. Judge hired Jason Garrett…his fault. Judge has been fine with Mike Glennon (4-11 for 24 yards, 0 TD.2 INTs) as his backup, and now it’s biting him. I like Judge…enough to give another year, but he’s made it very tough to support the way this team has died to the finish.

Freddie Kitchens will never be considered for an O-C job ever again.

KC-CIN

 -- Watching what Cincy did with Ja’Marr Chase (11-266-3/12) here compared to what KC did with Tyreek Hill (6-40-0/10)…it should preclude Eric Bieniemy from ever getting a head coaching job interview again. Bieniemy shouldn’t even be an NFL offensive coordinator.

I assume Bieniemy will be back with KC in 2022, and then we have to start discounting Tyreek back some more because 2021 was Tyreek’s worst season (to my eyes) since he became a #1 WR. All the same characters back in 2022 = I don’t see how it will change/improve. Mahomes/Tyreek gets a little more ‘off’ every year…while Rodgers-Davante only gets better. Oh, they’ll pay lip service to ‘changes’ in the offense in KC…but they won’t actually do anything different. The ‘genius’ playbook is SET IN STONE.

The Andy Reid coaching tree is rotten to the stump.

 -- Joe Burrow (30-39 for 446 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) just backed up my claims from last week – he’s a better NFL QB than Patrick Mahomes (26-35 for 259 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). FF-wise, not so sure Burrow will be better…but in NFL teams, I take Burrow. Joe Burrow is the real ‘next Brady’ hope of the football world. He’s also a left tackle/upgraded line away from being a top 3-ish FF QB in 2022 and beyond.

 -- Watching Travis Kelce (5-25-1/7) this season…I can see the ‘juice’ leaving his body. He’s no longer ‘that’ Kelce (unless he has a secret injury he’s working through). Still good…just not ‘great’ anymore. He won’t get any younger ahead… Father Time catches up to everyone…except Brady.

We’ll be discussing Kelce’s Dynasty value and all the 2022 Dynasty values in our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription starting in January with CFM (get as a Combo for the best deal!).

LV-IND

 -- I had hoped to steal a decent FF start out of Foster Moreau (1-9-0/1) this game but he burned me again. The Colts have been weak against the TE, but Vegas didn’t take advantage…which, they won, so who cares. No more Moreau talk for Week 18…probably.

 -- Carson Wentz (16-27 for 148 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) chokes in another big spot, per usual. He does get Jacksonville Week 18, so he might actually have a decent game. Not a QB1 talent or QB1 output even in the BEST situation of O-Line and run game support he could ever be in.

 -- I’m glad to see Zay Jones (8-120-0/10) start breaking out in the NFL. He was always a talented WR, but when you don’t explode quickly in your NFL career…you get forgotten fast. Jones has revived a career that was barren…so there’s hope for forgotten Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/2)…like 3-4 years from now, at the Zay pace.

JAX-NE

 -- Damien Harris (9-35-2, 1-12-0/1) got nicked up again in-game…hamstring. I would guess Bill Belichick will keep this RB committee plan going into 2022 because Harris may be his best back, but he has gotten hurt in-game and missed time or missed the next game seemingly every other game this season. He’s played well, but he has an allergic reaction to staying healthy.

 -- Dare Ogunbowale (9-36-0, 2-32-1/2) had the kinda game I figured but he did get the screen pass TD late to allow him a respectable/’meh’ FF start for the week. He’ll get one more shot next week, but I bet Ryquell Armstead (6-28-0, 1-6-0/2) gets a few touches to see if they have anything here.

 -- I thought Kristian Wilkerson (4-42-2/8) had the best chemistry with Mac Jones (22-30 for 227 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) in the preseason, but it didn’t mean anything in September – Wilkerson got cut, then put on the practice squad. He’s a pretty talented UDFA prospect who might have a shot at a future in 2022 or 2023. He’s not a superstar prospect, just very solid/stable/good at his craft WR with grit and some athleticism.

TB-NYJ

 -- Well, I didn’t think Antonio Brown (3-26-0/5) could do anything to get himself booted off the Bucs team…but AB always finds a way to achieve the impossible. We’ll get into the AB thing deeper during the week, but AB going down and out springs Cyril Grayson (6-81-1/8) as his probable replacement…a guy we talked about this week on the TB game report from Week 16, and a guy trying to crack into our Dynasty Stash top 175 (he will this next run).

And the AB meltdown boosts the future of Jaelon Darden in that AB role. AB is gone, Chris Godwin could be gone…there are job openings with TB12, suddenly, maybe…

 -- The Braxton Berrios (8-65-1/12, 2-12-1) was live and in full effect Week 17…he could not be stopped, early on…then he disappeared. Will Berrios get a shot at the main slot WR job in 2022? Probably not.

Berrios now has 4 TDs this season…tied with A.J. Brown and D.J. Moore among others with those 4 TDs.

 -- Ronald Jones (10-26-0, 1-1-0/1) got hurt in this game, so Ke’Shawn Vaughn (8-31-0, 2-14-0/3) will potentially be the lead RB for Week 18…which may spring his career back on track. A real opportunity to show what he has with RoJo and Fournette both set to be free agents in 2022.

MIA-TEN

 -- Finally!! Finally, Mike Vrabel is giving into the simple plan of D’Onta Foreman (26-132-1) doing a poor man’s Derrick Henry impression to carry the offense.

The crazy thing about all this is…Foreman was out there to be had by any team all season, but it was the Henry injury that sent the Titans into desperation to sign him midseason, and it has saved their division title and #1 seed hopes. Foreman was overlooked by all NFL teams…and now look at him. In other news, Jacksonville started Dare Ogunbowale this week.

 -- Tua Tagovailoa (18-38 for 205 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) is going to flop to the finish and will bring up all the – is Tua ‘the guy’ chatter again, as it should. Tua cannot handle aggressive defenses and that means he’s not a legit NFL franchise QB. Deshaun Watson could be headed here after all. If not Watson, someone else…via draft or trade.

 -- If Tua is replaced…Jaylen Waddle’s (3-47-0/7) future value gets shaken up/restricted. Waddle is fine enough/solid, but Tua’s ‘baby throws’ give Waddle a PPR life most are not afforded. It would be taken away if Tua is replaced/dumped.

PHI-WSH

 -- Another week, another time the Eagles just work better with Boston Scott (14-47-2, 4-39-0/4) and Jordan Howard (11-26-0, 0-0-0/1) as the tag team duo...working better than Miles Sanders.

If Philly makes the playoffs, they will 100% activate Sanders as fast as they can and jam him right into the starting lineup and Scott will not hardly see the field.

 -- Jaret Patterson (12-57-1, 5-41-0/5) looked pretty solid as the emergency starter this week. Patterson tore up the mid-majors at the University of Buffalo and then tested terribly at his Pro Day and went undrafted. He has grinded his way to ‘Antonio Gibson handcuff’.

Patterson is more proof that one cannot scout by metrics/analytics alone. Patterson will likely always be ‘the other guy’ on every team he’s on. Just there for emergency, but he can hang in this league on vision and toughness making up for a lack of ‘juice’ in his legs.

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (1-8-0/2) ran full speed, face first into a camera/cameraman early in the game…and it knocked him and the camera guy out of the game. John Bates (3-35-0/4) may get a full start Week 18 v. NYG.

LAR-BAL

 -- Matthew Stafford (26-35 for 309 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) tried his best to blow this game, because…that’s what he does. But, fortunately for him, he was facing a torn and tattered Ravens defense and the Rams got the win in the final minute. I don’t want to hear anything about Stafford as MVP…he gets zero of my consideration for the award.

 -- Another week, another Rashod Bateman (7-58-0/10) is outshining Marquise Brown (3-28-0/8) event. I wanna say that Bateman is too good to have me thinking/projecting that he’ll never get past Brown (in targets) but I also know this Bateman pop is happening with Tyler Huntley/Josh Johnson. Lamar Jackson, I believe, is tied eternally to Marquise. I need to see differently to believe it. I want to believe in Bateman. Lamar should believe.    But I don’t believe in Lamar…or, more importantly, that Lamar will change his targeting preferences.

 -- Such a huge opportunity for Van Jefferson (4-63-0/5)…a WR on a higher volume passing game offense with the defense all focused on Kupp-OBJ, and yet Jefferson cannot climb to another level. Jefferson does not look ‘good’ to my scouting eye, and his numbers are showing it – he’s caught 48 of 86 targets (55.8%) this season with ‘the great’ Matt Stafford…that isn’t going to cut it for a guy whose big attribute is ‘hands’.

Jefferson split snaps with Ben Skowronek (2-18-0/2)…assumedly because Van is failing.

DEN-LAC

 -- How the Chargers shutdown the Denver run game; I have no idea. But it happened. The NFL is a fickle beast to try and tame/predict. Last week, LAC’s run D was the worst I’d seen in the 2021 season from any team, any week…then Week 17 they’re the 85 Bears. Because of that, Javonte Williams (14-30-0, 1-2-0/1) flopped as did Melvin Gordon (10-43-0, 3-29-0/4), who scored a TD but it got called back to kill him off for FF for sure.

They’ll probably be stuffed again by KC next week, and then we’ll get a new head coach in 2022 where Javonte will take his rightful spot as full lead RB.

 -- Noah Fant (6-92-1/7) made a short catch, and then stopped…and then acceleration past 4-5 defenders like they were standing still/shocked. It was one of the best things I’ve seen from a non-Pitts TE this season. A reminder on Fant as a serious elite-potential TE…if he can get a real offensive head coach and O-C, and QB.

 -- Speaking of beauty…Mike Williams (3-63-1/4) made a fantastic deep ball catch and launch into the end zone TD, reminding us all that he was one of the best WRs of 2021 season…that was suppressed by limited targets by his coach’s (HC and O-C) terrible offensive planning.

Two of the worst offensive coordinators I witnessed this season were in this game: Shurmur and Lombardi. They both need to go, but only one probably will.

HOU-SF

 -- Elijah Mitchell (21-119-0, 2-11-2/2) returned from injury, and was thought not to be 100%...but is the heavy lead anyway -- and he was really good, again. Mitchell IS Shanahan’s guy. No debate. No Trey Sermon talk. Mitchell is the RB1 hope for FF 2022 as the 49ers lead guy.

 -- Brandin Cooks (7-66-1/11) has a year remaining on his deal…a $16M+ final year (or $7M+ to cut). Will he be a Texan in 2022, or should they move him to build for the future? My guess is they will keep him to be a mentor and BFF for Davis Mills (21-32 for 163 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) if David Culley stays, but if Culley is gone…could be up in the air/Cooks on the move again, and he’d be in-demand.

 -- How did Trey Lance (16-23 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 8-31-0) look here? My live-look first reaction = I wasn’t that impressed, but I need to rewatch it and scout the tape in detail to digest it all. And I will, as will Ross, and we’ll weigh in on ‘Ross’s guy’ this week.

ARI-DAL

 -- Michael Gallup (3-36-1/4) went down in this game, and he’s likely got an ACL…going right into his free agency. That’s a shame. Cedric Wilson (6-35-1/6) goes in-play as a Flex option Week 18. Wilson has been productive most every time he’s asked to fill-in as a starter.

 -- In his last 10 games, Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for a high of 52-yards. Seven of 10 games under 50 yards rushing. Are we seeing the end of the Ezekiel Elliott era of him being ‘elite’? It goes fast with RBs. I have the same feeling about starting Zeke for FF as I do Saquon, right now…and that’s ‘I should sit them, but I can’t’.

Elliott is set to make $18.2M in 2022…and can’t be cut, per se – or it would be a $30M+ hit to the CAP to do so. 2023 is more the time we might see Elliott being debated to be released. 2024 is for sure, if it doesn’t happen prior.

 -- I thought this might be a decent week for Antoine Wesley (4-30-2/5), and it was. Not huge targeting…but he’s the guy Kyler tends to look for in the end zone because he’s a 6’4”+ target for him. 3 TDs in his last 2 games for Wesley. The momentum should continue into Week 18 v. SEA.

CAR-NO

 -- Taysom Hill (17-28 for 222 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 12-45-0) returned and had his typical Taysom game…10+ rushes, 200 or so yards passing…but he didn’t get a late, long TD to make his FF day worthwhile. I’ve not loved what I’ve seen from Taysom for FF…he’s been good/stable/a winner…but just not rolling up the FF numbers on purpose – usually saved by a late fluky play for a big FF score moment. He’s fading into high-end QB2 land.

 -- FYI, Sam Darnold (17-26 for 132 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is beyond awful…not helped by an aggressive, emerging top defense in the Saints crushing him. Darnold v. TB Week 18 probably isn’t going to be great for Sam either.

 -- That Saints-DST…7 sacks, 10 TFLs in this game. The Panthers are so dead. Bucs-DST should tee off on them in the finale. The Saints-DST will squash the Falcons Week 18.

DET-SEA

 -- D’Andre Swift (4-32-0, 2-7-0/3) fought his way back from injury and practiced in full all week, and then got into this game…and didn’t start…and was barely used in the game. A major, purposeful snub by Dan Campbell. There may be some trouble in paradise there?

 -- Rashaad Penny (25-170-2, 2-15-0/3)…the shocking savior of FF 2021 for many FFMers. Who would have thunk it? Shows how important pining over all those big name RBs was in the preseason. It will be interesting to see where Penny winds up in free agency…might be back in Seattle? Why not?

Wherever he goes…I’ll pitch in some GoFundMe money as a thanks for bailing us out for FF just when we needed the help.

 -- You know what I thought about when watching D.K. Metcalf’s (6-63-3/9) big Week 17 game here? Not ‘wow, he’s so awesome!’ More…I think he’s my leading contender for ‘next Antonio Brown WR flake out guy’. He has some issues, man. He’s ready to fight everyone. He’s acting out more and more when he’s disappointed by little things. Super gifted…super troubled/arrogant/immature. Also in the running for that honor: Kadarius Toney.

MIN-GB

 -- Memo to self for the future: There is no level of cold that affects Aaron Rodgers (29-38 for 288 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 2-8-0) or Davante Adams (11-136-1/14) at Lambeau. The two of them played a game in ‘feels like -5 degrees’ like they were in a dome.

 -- Nothing Dalvin Cook (9-13-0, 3-0-0/3) could do here…no Kirk Cousins opened up the GB defense to stack the box…and they did so to perfection.

 -- Sean Mannion (22-36 for 189 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) got his audition for future NFL work, and despite Cris Collinsworth trying to con himself and the public into how great Mannion was playing…he wasn’t, and he’ll always be a career backup.

You see what Zimmer thinks of Kellen Mond (2-3 for 5 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) by not turning to him after halftime. For good reason, Mond stinks. He’s the next regime’s problem.

From a Yahoo report…

Asked after the Week 17 game whether Mond might get an extended look in the season finale, Zimmer didn't mince words.

“Not particularly,’’ the coach said.

Mond entered the Green Bay game on the Vikings' penultimate possession after replacement starter Sean Mannion was hurt briefly, completing 2 of 3 passes for 5 yards. It was Mond's first regular-season action after the Vikings used the 66th overall pick on him in April.

But on the final drive, Mannion was back out there. They were the only two active quarterbacks, with starter Kirk Cousins in the COVID protocol.

Asked why the Vikings might not want to see more of Mond against the Bears, Zimmer offered a pretty damning response.

“I see him every day (in practice),’’ he said.

Ouch.

**The usual 2nd-half off the Three Things/Five Players will post tomorrow…giving me more time to prep for my best projections of Week 18 situations – we gotta figure out places where starters will rest some and we got players playing for contract incentives who need to be beefed up in projections, etc.**

Look for the usual section of ‘Five Players’ for this report in ‘Part Two’ tomorrow.  

A fitting outro for the week…RIP: https://youtu.be/tScJ1ik6peI

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Need Lineup Help for Week 17/Title Week?

My annual tradition…if you would like a lineup check, or have a tough sit-start question, etc., and you’d like me to weigh in on– please feel free to email me, and I will try to get to all the emails before Sunday morning.

But please make it easy for me. I don’t know your league by heart, and I’m going to get a million questions this week with a million different scoring systems – put your scoring system and particulars in the start of the email so I can quick reference it. (With the crazy amount of titles folks are in this season = it's OK to put one team/league question/s per email...you don't have to put your 2-3 different title game questions on one email if it would be a huge cluster of info/pics, etc.)

4 or 6pts per pass TD or other?

PPR, half, non?

Any bonus scoring (100+ yard game, distance of TD, etc.)?

If relevant:

Distance bonus on kicker FGs, or just 3pts for everything?

DST scoring…just your typical by points allowed/sacks/turnovers…or also yards allowed?

Anything else?

Knowing your opponent’s QB/lineup also helps…because there’s different strategies on blocking your opponent, unblocking yourself from opponent, players to pick up to pinch your opponent, players you should be picking up to protect yourself, etc.

Make it easy for me. Screen clips are OK but a typed out list is better – because sometimes the screen clips take up a huge amount of space on my phone or desktop. Choose a medium sized pic, not an extra large if you go there because of the volume of the thing you want me to see.

Also, shorthand common player names at your own risk…Jefferson, Williams, Smith, Reynolds, Brown, etc. I could assume the wrong thing, so make sure you specify the players first name with common last names if typing out anything.

If you ask – (example) should I start ___ or just pick up someone else…I don’t know who your someone else opportunities are – I need to know the options. Help me help you.

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Finally, send your email with the subject line starter of TITLE WEEK QUESTION…so I can see it clearly in my crowded email box.

Also, then add to that subject line:  -- (title of movie or documentary or TV Show I need to see/you are endorsing as ‘great’…recent or ancient history). When the FF season ends, I got a few months to catch up on media. I got a number of books to read. Things saved in my DVR. But I miss a lot of what’s going on in the world the past 5 months, and my summer 2021 was a disaster and I didn’t get to watch anything I had planned. So, what movie or TV series or doc do I need to consider watching?

By adding that to your email subject line, it helps me remember who is who/differentiates all the emails better…it sticks out more for me. Plus, I’m looking to see what I should be trying to watch this offseason. I am hoping to watch some media this offseason and touch upon reviews of things for fun, non-football things to talk about in FFM articles this winter/spring/summer.

So, email subject line (example): TITLE WEEK QUESTION – Squid Games

I haven’t seen the Squid Games, but I know it was a thing a while back…but not sure if it's really good or not. Just using it as an example.

Email to rc4metrics@gmail.com

No promises, but I will try to get to all of the emails ASAP and by 8amET Sunday…and then the window is closed as I focus on Sunday stuff from there.

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*And then you also have to tell me how it all played out next week, once it's settled -- I love to join the celebration...but I also know that you need a shoulder to cry on as well, if it goes the other way.

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Just an FYI...there is no Video Q&A tonight due to the fact that there is no TNF game this week. Sunday 10:30am, or possibly an earlier start time special for this week, is the next Video Q&A.

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Video Q&A: Tuesday Nights 830pm-10pmET

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Stream info below if you need it...

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2021 Video Q&A Subscriber Live Stream Prep/Access Info

My preseason live video Q&A shows will be conducted on Amazon’s top-notch live stream service ‘Twitch’.

If you have used Twitch before, then you know what to do come showtime.

If you’ve not used Twitch before, it’s easy…

You can access/watch Twitch several different ways:

1) From your computer or tablet.

2) From your smartphone (download the Twitch App).

3) From your smart TV on the Twitch App/channel.

You can watch without having a Twitch account…it’s live/free video, but if no account (user/pw) then you cannot ask any questions in the chat side.

But if you want to be able to communicate with/ask questions of me via the chat -- make sure you set up a Twitch account…it’s free and just setup/use any username/password you desire. It will take you like two minutes or less to set up.

Quick test to find our channel by searching for ‘ffmetrics’, and you’ll see our logo/channel. If you’ve never seen a Twitch stream before -- click on any random live show happening from the Twitch homepage to see what something in action looks like.

Here’s a quick link to get straight through to the FFM channel: https://www.twitch.tv/ffmetrics

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If you have an account (user/pw), you can choose to ‘follow’ the ‘ffmetrics’ channel and then as soon as I click the button to go live…you’ll get an instant notification on your devices that we’re going live (good to get the App for your phone for that reason). If you don’t ‘follow’ the channel, then just be there at the appointed time and as soon as we’re live you’ll see us.

Twitch has an excellent ‘chat room’ function. You can ask (type into chat) me any football question you desire, and I’ll go through the stream and answer them in order.

I only ask that you make it as easy for me to answer/expand upon your question by doing the following…

If you want to send in a fantasy question, please note in shorthand your pertinent league particulars – PPR/half/non-PPR, 4 or 6pts per pass TD, any performance bonuses in your scoring (100+ yds or 300+ yds, etc.), Redraft-Dynasty-Best Ball, lineup things like ‘SuperFlex/2QB or 3WR starts, roster size, 10-team, 12-team, 16-team, etc.

You don’t have to write a book, just give me the shorthand I can figure out so that I don’t make an uneducated analysis of your situation…if need be, I’ll ask for clarification and I’ll come back to your question when I see the clarification.

*You can put (examples):

12-tm, 17-man, PPR, 6pts pass, redraft

or

10-tm, 20-man, Non-PPR, 2QB, 4pts pass w bonuses

-Try and put these quick notes before your question…anything that helps me know the situation.

I will take any football question you want to hear my take on – fantasy, draft prep, trade, rookie draft, handicapping, prop bets, things you think I’m dumb about, website clarifications, etc.

I will open the show with 2-3-4-5-6-7-8 things of interest/importance (whatever I have) to go over from my notes from that day…sometimes it’s big/huge/juicy stuff for fantasy/betting. I never know until that day. I try to keep some neat tidbits for the show opening.

After the show opens and I clear my quick notes, I start going through the questions from first to last. You can submit your question to the chat anytime and get it into the queue, and I’ll hit it when we get to the Q&A part after my openers.

All I ask is that you keep it clean, rated G for your questions/comments…and I will stream close to ‘G’ as well, so that you don’t have any issues listening with family/kids around. I’m pretty ‘G’ all the time anyways.

After the show closes, it will remain on Twitch for you to watch/listen to on-demand/anytime…if you missed anything, want to re-visit, couldn’t attend live. It stays up for a week or so.

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2021 Fantasy Three Things/Five Players from Sunday’s Games: Week 16

If you’re reading this message right now, you’re either:

a) On Cloud 9 (why is that the best cloud? Maybe Cloud 3 kicks ass or suits my needs better?) because you already won this week/are likely to win after tonight and you’re getting ready to play for a championship this upcoming week (and I’m happy to report all the early reports/results look like a fairly great week of FFM universe winning this week…depending upon, among others, mainly Myles Gaskin not going crazy tonight) or…

b) You are not on any sweet numbered clouds, just under a dark, rainy one because you lost this past week or prior and are just here keeping tabs for prep for the future or DFS fun.

My lead-in message here is: I’ll be doing all I can to turn up every stone, consider every matchup, factor in every COVID effect I can to assist with all the sit-start and waiver wire grabs this week to help bring all these titles home. This week is a ‘normal’ FFM week, just turned up to ‘11’ in studies…and except Friday for a few hours where I want to watch Cincinnati beat Alabama in the afternoon, the only college game I will have purposefully watched so far this year.

Getting personal…

The calendar year is coming to an end, as is Fantasy Football 2021. This is title week for most…the money game. 

I take this week very personally. 

I want you (and me) to win titles this season, this week more than anything right now.

I start each season scouting college tape for the incoming rookies/draft and looking over data on the pros as I watch the NFL playoffs, prep/scout for and watch, sometimes attend the Senior Bowl week, analyze the new hire coaches, analyze the free agency possibilities and realities, and then analyze the NFL Draft and then go through all kinds of source material and contacts to find out all I can on training camps all summer, then watch/study all the preseason games and then regular season games – all that while we collectively do our mock drafts, real redrafts, rookie drafts, make trades, add waivers, maneuver sit-starts…11+ months of prep work comes down to this week.

The fact that 11+ months of work and football observation might have resulted in a flyer on Evan McPherson Week 15 kicking at Denver…or the Rashaad Penny to D’Onta Foreman to Justin Jackson train many of you have ridden on the past three weeks or an Isaiah McKenzie start Sunday – the fact that those one-time, odd-ball events producing just in time is why I do what I do over a thousand+ (pro and college) player studies/watching all year, every year …to gain that one little edge so that when Tyreek Hill isn’t as involved in a game plan or Travis Kelce gets COVID, we find a way…and that makes it all worth it.

When Albert O. throws down a zero or the Chargers-DST can’t handle the great Rex Burkhead, and those items might have been the one to help you lose…I’m devastated. I feel like I cost you the title.

I take it all to heart…it’s my life’s work/passion.

11+ months of work in 2021…with the ‘bonus’ of a bizarre year of shifting family events for me. This specific year is like none other to try and work my manic football schedule and deal with ‘life’.

My wife and I moved from our long-time home/state this summer to be closer to my in-laws to take care of aging parents. My wife got a great job back in her hometown area, somewhat out of the blue, and we took the plunge – it was a dream come true…a great job, better benefits, and selling our house in the hot real estate market, moving from the cold winters. It was truly unbelievable, at first.

…and then it turned into the worst summer/year of my life.

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1) Three deaths of people close to me since March/April…and I haven't had to deal with or attend a funeral for someone close to me in a decade+. One of them was the person who help start FFM, who was a personal friend, a relatively young man…and a person who I had just had breakfast with on a particular Wednesday to catch up on life and say some ‘good-byes’, as I was about to leave the state…I then got a call a few days later/Saturday to inform me he just died of a sudden heart attack.

The first of the three passing away events this year was my mother-in-law…again, somewhat suddenly…and who was the one we were just starting to pack our stuff to move/come down and help take care of/spend time with for years to come.

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2) In a real estate market where houses sell in less than a week and transact in less than a month, my house sale fell through four times with four different buyers. The first one went south 20 hours before close, the second a week before close, the third two weeks before close…the last, but eventual/real, sale fell through a day before close, but it got rescheduled a week later and then it went through (Thank God). Each sale fell through for the most bizarre reasons you could think of.

What was supposed to take 3-4 weeks to transact a house took five months with so many little things going wrong in-between the failed sales it’s mind-boggling.

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3) One giant move from North to South, which the actual moving and packing process may have been worse than all the deaths and falling house sales we had to deal with.

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There were also major things that were GOOD that happened during all this, which is a shame they were in competition with all the bad stuff. By September/October, all the bad stuff had subsided, mostly, and then things started pointing upward – capped off by my oldest son getting married and thus we acquired a tremendous daughter-in-law. 

To say this past 6+ months has been a whirlwind is an understatement. ‘Trying’…or ‘mentally breaking’ is more like it. All the while, I kept grinding on the football work…hiding from life with this ‘Fantasy’ world, you could say – it was the one diversion, the one place of solace that was a distraction away from all the outside storms.

It may be a stupid game, this Fantasy Football thing that we do, but it’s not for me. I have learned, in this year of chaos, that football…Fantasy Football specifically, deserves respect -- in that for about five months a year (preseason and regular season) it’s a dog bone to gnaw on and overinvest in and overthink about for a ‘fun’, mentally engaging distraction to partake in to let us step out of our real life worries and be entertained in a harmless (usually) but consuming competition of wits and persistence where you can interact with friends and frenemies and read and watch daily and always have something to strategize on or react to every day or every week for 5+ months a year. How great is football!?!

For some, they have other hobbies or TV shows they sink into. For me, for us…we have this gift of trying to predict mostly unpredictable football events…and we can win money from it! You can’t win any money from being deeply invested in Game of Thrones or The Squid Games. And those series are limited and come to an end eventually…football is always there for us every season…hell, every week of the entire year now something is happening in the football news cycle or rumor mill. There’s no offseason if you don’t want there to be.

The amount of time you read about or search on your phone for FF, watch the actual games, do mock drafts, watch football/FF shows, listen to Fantasy content…the amount of glorious distraction time FF gives us compared to the cost of your league entry, and/or an FFM subscription, and/or other subscriptions or support of the FF community – the cost per minute of engagement is lower than about any other distraction. You spend more on a one-hour meal for two at most chain restaurants now than your cost of an FFM subscription that gives 100’s of hours of enjoyment. You tipped your DoorDash/GrubHub/UberEats drivers more this past month or quarter than you spent on Fantasy Football in all of 2021, potentially. I digress… It’s a compliment to Fantasy that the cost per hour of entertainment is amazing.

I am thankful that I had football to distract me this difficult year. I am thankful that everyone reading this supports this FFM football endeavor, so it can stay alive one year to the next…because, in reality, there’s no way something like FFM should still be in existence with all the advantages given to the big boy media sites in Google searches, online advertising, and public trust/acceptance, etc. They’re indirectly/directly trying to stomp out any independent FF businesses or just hire away the worker/writer to go be a worker bee.

I like being a worker bee for the FFM community, and not having to be one for ESPN or the NFL. There’s been no greater work joy in my life than FFM/football scouting and writing. And I really needed it this year more than I ever would have known as 2021 just started on the calendar. Amidst the storm of 2021, I feel like I had my best year of scouting and projecting of all time, and yes…I’m aware of the 13-to-417 things I projected incorrectly along the way, no need to remind me…but some will…. Football scouting/analysis is a game of putting odds/percentages in our favor over time…not a game of always/instant perfection. It’s a game of adjusting to the changing environment faster than others. It’s like life/real business.

Such a year, and we’re now nearing the finish line. 

This entire turbulent plane flight through a hurricane of a year for me now comes down to suddenly sunny skies, wind at my back, clear weather landing of the plane this final week (for most) of Fantasy Football. I am ready to land this plane after 11+ months of training/prep/study and 6+ months of personal storms I had to fly through. I want you to be on the plane with me as we land safely at our destination…in paradise…in Utopia…the Fantasy Football Champion in the end.

It’s cliched, but what the hell…’Let’s Go!!!!’  https://youtu.be/8eZBjusBvI0

**FFM doesn’t go to sleep after this Week 17. We will have projections and game reports, etc. for Week 18 for those that are in those types of contests or playing DFS, etc.

All January 2022 will be playoff coverage, post-season awards, Senior Bowl prep and scouting, among a million other things. Football literally never ends for FFM/CFM. Thank you, God! Then there is the NFL Combine, free agency, the NFL Draft, training camps…and a scant eight months from now we’ll do this all over again. Defending titles for many, I hope!

  ===== THREE THINGS (from Sunday games)…  =====

*These are my first reactions from the live watches last week, and opinions/scouting can change when I watch the tape back all week.

SF-TEN

 -- The reason I was down on D’Onta Foreman (9-17-1) going into this game…played out near exactly as I suspected. Missing too many OLs, and Mike Vrabel is ‘kinda’ committed to Foreman as his lead back, but not as the passing game back. This was just a bad setup from the jump. Week 17 v. MIA is a better setup.

 -- And the bad Foreman setup was why I was more for Jeff Wilson (14-45-1, 3-12-0/3) over Foreman, if you were faced with that choice…but I wasn’t in love with Wilson here either – and it played out about as expected. My fears on Wilson were Titans defense based…and that suddenly stout run defense will be an issue for Gaskin and friends Week 17.

 -- A.J. Brown (11-145-1/16) came back off IR looking better than ever. WR1 days are back with AJB. Not so much with dying/dead Julio Jones (1-7-0/1).

CLE-GB

 -- The A.J. Dillon (9-41-0, 3-15-0/3) and Aaron Jones (12-66-0, 5-21-0/6) split continues. It makes them both RB2s with hope either scores a TD to make them RB1s in a given week, but more so they are RB2s on mediocre touch counts now.

 -- Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-5-0/5) has the movement skills of a #1 WR, but he doesn’t have the experience/reps as one…and he’s visibly struggling in the role, especially against top coverage now on him as the de facto #1 WR for the Browns right now.

 -- Allen Lazard (2-45-1/5, 1-13-0) was on his way to a WR1 week with a TD early, a nice jet sweep…he was a stud early in this game. Then he dropped a bang-bang slant TD pass and then Rodgers ‘froze him out’ pretty much the rest of the game for daring drop a pass. That’s how it goes with the non-Davante’s…Lazard or MVS could be WR1s any given week…or WR4s. Lazard was solid enough here, but it looked like he would be so much more after one quarter. If MVS returns, Lazard is a WR3-4 projection Week 17.

IND-ARI

 -- A near FF-disaster for Kyler Murray (27-43 for 245 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 4-74-0), but he salvaged it late in hurry up mode the last 5-8 minutes of the game. He doesn’t look great right now – not bad, but no longer great…more good/OK. I’m not sure what’s wrong/causing the drop-off, but we’ll see what the tape says. Regardless, something is broken/off since his return from injury…and now he’ll face the menacing Dallas defense Week 17…it won’t be a great projection by the computer this week, most likely.

 -- If you hadn’t already, you can dump the Arizona-DST now…if they couldn’t take advantage of the O-Line depleted Colts and got smashed by the Lions the prior week – you can trust them vs. Dallas next week.

 -- It was good to see Michael Pittman (8-82-0/12) bounce back from his struggles versus last week. He gets a nice matchup Week 17 at home/dome vs. Las Vegas, where he will likely be a WR1 projection consideration.

DET-ATL

 -- I was right about Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-91-1/11)…for the 1st-half of the season.

Unfortunately, I’ve been wildly wrong about his projections for about the last 5-6 weeks.

I was ready to believe this week, until Jared Goff was ruled out. Well, wrong again. I promise…I’m good with him Week 17 at Seattle…unless it’s raining a lot.

 -- I will be against Cordarrelle Patterson (7-14-1, 1-0-0/2) Week 17 at Buffalo…this offense, this run game, his usage is a joke. I keep thinking he’ll overcome it with a great matchup…ummm, no.

 -- Russell Gage (4-39-0/5) stumbled away from his WR1 ways for the past few weeks – the Falcons barely had possession (21 min) and only ran 42 offensive plays. At colder Buffalo this week…shaky WR2.

TB-CAR

 -- Ronald Jones (20-65-1, 2-16-0/3) got the touches you would hope for, just a low ypc to go with. But it was Ke’Shawn Vaughn (7-70-1, 0-0-0/1) that was the shock…a great 55-yard TD run early in the game has earned him more touches this game, and the games ahead.

 -- Missing Evans-Godwin, so who would Tom Brady (18-30 for 232 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) turn to the most? We got a resounding answer to that question:

Antonio Brown (10-101-0/15)

Rob Gronkowski (1-23-0/2)

Tyler Johnson (0-0-0/0)

AB could literally murder another human being and the puppy dog they were holding, on live television, and Arians/Brady would start him next week and he’d see 10+ targets.

 -- Rookie WR Shi Smith (3-86-0/4) saw some extra time in this game. Nothing special occurred, just got wide-wide open for one big play…and suffered with the QB play otherwise. WR4 outlook next week, likely.

BAL-CIN

 -- Good for Joe Burrow (37-46 for 525 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT)…he deserves MVP consideration. And he will warrant QB1 consideration in a possible shootout vs. KC Week 17…a meeting of the two best teams in the AFC.

*Brandon Allen got put on the COVID list today…danger/worry that Burrow is next, FYI.

 -- James Proche (7-76-0/8) had a game, but that was driven off a 3rd-string QB picking random options in a huge deficit game. No breakout here.

 -- In four of his last 5 games, Tee Higgins (12-194-2/13) has 110 or more receiving yards in a game. He’s on fire…and will continue to be into the future as long as Burrow is there/upright.

LAC-HOU

 -- I’m doing pretty good on my ‘stars are aligning’ RB pulls/starts the last few weeks (the critical FF weeks!), and as I mentioned on the Video Q&A’s that I thought Justin Jackson (11-64-2, 8-98-0/8) was the best of the three ‘stars aligning’ shots I called the past three weeks…and…ta-da.

Week 17, either Jeff Wilson or Elijah Mitchell might be in that ‘stars aligning’ spot versus Houston.

 -- The worst run defense in the NFL is either Houston, Pittsburgh, or (more likely) this LAC mess from Week 16. A total and utter embarrassment. Start both/either of the Denver RB options next week vs. LAC. This LAC run defense (and overall defense) was a joke. Rex Burkhead (22-149-2, 2-0-0/2) rushing for 140+ yards in a critical to win game…Brandon Staley has been awful in 2021. Fortunately, Urban Meyer, Arthur Smith, and David Culley are all even worse from the rookie coaching class of 2021.

 -- Davis Mills (21-27 for 254 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) did his ‘better than Mac Jones’ Mac Jones impression again here to lead the team, minus Brandin Cooks, to a victory over a playoff-hopeful team – and they didn’t squeak by or get a lot of fluky turnovers to win, they just thumped them. Davis Mills is good…way better than I expected. Maybe the most wrong I was on my CFM scouting 2021. It’s OK, I’m still the best scout walking the face of the earth. It’s not a game of perfection, although we’re trying.

CFM 2022 signups will open soon…come and see which player or two of 600+ rookie/Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects we grade and scout that I’ll be wrong about this year!

LAR-MIN

 -- Adam Thielen (3-40-03/) was back from his high ankle sprain. He looked fine, but then got his ankle landed on wrong and left the game for a while. He did return, but it will be something to watch how he practices all week on just how badly did he reinjure himself.

Thielen’s absence allowed K.J. Osborn (5-67-1/7) to have a nice FF effort. When Thielen is out, KJO is a legit WR2-3 option.

 -- Van Jefferson (1-6-0/6) had a streak of three games in a row with a TD, with Robert Woods gone. Well, that streak is over…with impunity. His last two games he’s averaging 1.5 rec. (4.0 targets), 14.5 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game.

 -- Cam Akers was activated off IR, but he will not play at all this regular season...or so they said, but now there is rumor he might start Week 17. He was supposedly only activated for pension/year of service rules. That’s the stated plan, anyway. Sony Michel (27-131-1, 1-4-0/1) was the CLEAR #1 back for the Rams right now…and Darrell Henderson got hurt again, not sure the severity just yet. It might be an Akers/Michel split Week 17?

BUF-NE

 -- I was pushing Isaiah McKenzie (11-125-1/12) as a decent dart throw for Week 16, but I never expected this. McKenzie has had a couple monster games out of nowhere the past couple years, but Buffalo never stays committed to him. If Cole Beasley is back, McKenzie falls into the background. If Beasley misses Week 17…we talk about McKenzie as a debatable/legit option again.

I know of two of you that were forced to use McKenzie in deeper leagues this week…you’re welcome. I await your lavish late-Christmas gifts if you go on to win the title.

 -- The Patriots ran the ball 27 times for 149 yards for 5.5 ypc, as a team…led by Damien Harris (18-103-3). I note this to say…the Bills have become one of the worst run defenses in the NFL since Tre’Davious White was lost. I’m not sure I can trust Cordarrelle Patterson against BUF Week 17, however.

What wins out? A terrible run defense or a terrible run offense? I’ll be considering that all week.

 -- Mac Jones (14-32 for 145 yards, 0 TDs/2 INT) in his last two games: 50.6% Comp. Pct., 225.0 yards, 1.0 TD/2.0 INTs per game. He’s running into a tougher schedule and is being found to be human…and I say ‘less than Davis Mills’. He gets a break with Jacksonville Week 17.

JAX-NYJ

 -- James Robinson is done for the year with an Achilles tear. Dare Ogunbowale (17-57-1, 2-15-0/4) is the most experienced RB they have for Week 17. They also have Ryquell Armstead on the roster who might be available. Either way, not good…and not a good matchup with New England Week 17. I think Dare is 'meh' as a talent (not as good as Penny-Foreman-JJax type RB right spot/right times), but this is a really tough FF-spot.

 -- With Laviska Shenault out, Tavon Austin (6-68-0/7) somehow mattered in this game. Assuming Shenault is back next week, the story is over…even if Shenault is out, I’m not sure how you could trust Lawrence-Austin v. NE.

 -- Michael Carter (16-118-0, 2-6-0/3) has become the reliable lead RB for the Jets. Tevin Coleman (14-57-0, 1-4-0/1) is getting touches, but Carter is the clear favorite of the coaches, and has a good chance to be the lead back for them in 2022. I thought they might try a thunder & lightning split role thing with him, but he is getting pushed like their own Austin Ekeler. Tough matchup Week 17 v. TB.

NYG-PHI

 -- Miles Sanders (7-45-0, 1-3-0/3) got hurt in-game…again. But when that happens, it’s the best thing that can happen to the Philly run game. Philly is at their best with the duo of Boston Scott (12-41-1) and Jordan Howard (9-37-0, 2-19-0/4)…and that’s what it would be Week 17 if Sanders is out – a full split of Scott/Howard vs. WSH.

 -- Kadarius Toney (4-28-0/9) got good targeting right away, due to all the junk time…but the QB play is bad, and the offense is uninspired, and there is generally no life here. Toney is still a WR3-4 flyer with WR1 skills/upside.

 -- Saquon Barkley’s (15-32-0, 1-0-0/1) has been a full-on FF disaster, from expectations, since returning from his early season injury. In the 6 games he’s been back, here are his PPR points in each game: 12-9-14-13-11-4 (10.5 PPR PPG…an RB2-3).

Barkley has not rushed for more than 64 yards in any game this season and has 4 TDs total all season.

CHI-SEA

 -- Well, Rashaad Penny (17-135-1, 0-0-0/1) did get the bulk of the carries for Seattle…and did do well here. Good for him. Facing Detroit next week…possible RB1 threat there.

 -- D.K. Metcalf (2-41-1/5) had another weak game in this Russ-FF-cooking-downfall taking place the past 4-6 games. He did get a TD but more low results otherwise. A combination of the offensive plan + Wilson falling + the league has figured out D.K.’s schtick, I think.

 -- I have to give a nod to my guy Nick Foles (24-35 for 250 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). Emergency start. Cold, snowy conditions. Down 10 going into the fourth quarter. He gets the game winning TD late, plus a 2-point conversion…ballgame, winner. I hope he gets another shot Week 17 v. NYG, but Justin Fields will probably be back…maybe.

PIT-KC

 -- This was another one of those games where KC blew out an opponent so bad, so fast that the FF results were irregular. Tyreek Hill’s (2-19-0/2) services weren’t needed.

…co glad I pissed and moaned all week about his COVID status, then felt like I hit the lottery when he got cleared Saturday night…only to have this game where he cost me a few advancements because if he was out, I woulda used any number of WRs who would have crushed his FF tally this week. Dems da breaks.

 -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (9-27-1, 1-4-0/1) got hurt…again. He’s probably very questionable/out for Week 17, meaning Darrel Williams (11-55-0, 3-30-0/3) to the RB1.5 rescue.

 -- Just a side note: The passes from Big Ben (23-35 for 159 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) to Chase Claypool (4-41-0/6) are so utterly embarrassing, I can’t believe it’s a real NFL starting QB throwing them. Ben can barely throw a pass that far and the ball floats and wobbles and forces Claypool to stop and adjust or jump to try and catch the disaster throw. You can’t trust Claypool any week…or Week 17…because of Ben.

DEN-LV

 -- Denver played it conservative, and thus Drew Lock (15-22 for 153 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) was put into the Teddy GameManager role and never got into any rhythm pushing the ball downfield. Lock’s career essentially ended this game…the part of his career where he is taken seriously as an upside hope QB for an NFL team has died. This was his chance – he blew it. If he starts Week 17 at LAC, it will be more of the same.

 -- Zay Jones’s (6-50-0/8) last five games: 5.0 rec. (7.2 targets), 44.4 yards per game…not amazing, but better than the zero he was most of last year and into this season start. He could have another plausible PPR appearance vs. Indy Week 17. He seems to be growing with Carr.

 -- We mentioned Denver LB Jonas Griffith (13 tackles) last week in the under the radar IDPs section, but he may have pushed his way to starter from here on in…11.0 tackles, 1.5 TFLs per game the last two weeks playing the majority of the defense snaps.

WSH-DAL

 -- Dak Prescott (28-39 for 330 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) had special workouts this past week to get he and the WRs back on the same page… I guess it worked! There’s no reason the good times can’t continue at home v. fading Arizona Week 17.

Just a side note: Dak was in a definite slump for several weeks leading up to this. Kyler could snap his slump just as well going into Week 17 v. Dallas, but that’s a tough defense to try and push around.

 -- Amari Cooper (7-85-1/11) did the public complaining about his targets…and boom! It works almost every time it’s tried. Every time a usually quiet star WR goes public complaining about targets…they have a sweet FF game that same week.

 -- Now that Washington is officially dead for any playoff daydreams…might they sit out Antonio Gibson (6-29-0, 2-29-1/4) to let him heal his various, numerous injuries? Or will they be stupid and keep pushing him out there for no reason? It’s the NFL and idiotic head coaches who think ‘finishing strong’ means everything are in charge…so, of course there’s a chance they keep rolling him out there to be at-risk.

What does ‘finishing strong’ even matter if you turnover 33% of your roster one year to the next? A-third of the players weren’t even there to get in on this vaunted ‘momentum’. Do you remember any team that won last Week 17 last season and that momentum carried them to new heights this season? You don’t even remember the loser teams that won in the final weeks.

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS…  =====

*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

1a) RB Boston Scott, PHI (Grade: B-/C+)

When Miles Sanders is out, Scott works in a 50/50 split duo with JoHo…with Scott usually being the better PPR option…and Scott as ‘the starter’ and homerun hitter.

Weeks 8-9-10 (Sanders out):

12-10-11 carry counts each game.

1-0-2 targets each game.

29-25-20 off. snaps each game.

60-40-105 total yards each game.

1b) RB Jordan Howard, PHI (Grade: B-/C+, non-PPR)

When Miles Sanders is out, Howard works in a duo with Scott…with JoHo usually being the better/capable non-PPR option.

Weeks 8-9-10 (Sanders out):

12-17-12 carry counts each game.

0-0-0 targets each game.

16-23-24 off. snaps each game.

57-71-83 total yards each game.

3) WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Grade: C+)

Assuming he’s back from COVID early in the week for Week 17…it’s a great matchup against MIN on Sunday Night Football. MVS is a guy that will get you 17+ PPR pts…or 5-7. He’s a bomb to throw for such a time as title week looking big risk/reward players.

The downside risk to watch is – it might be bitter cold in Green Bay for SNF, like super cold…feels like single-digits...in which case, he’s not as hot but Green Bay usually plays in the cold like they’re in a dome.

4) TE Foster Moreau, LB (Grade: C+)

Great matchup with weak-v-TE Indy, minus Darius Leonard, and in a dome stadium in January.

5) QB Taysom Hill v. CAR (Grade: C)

If you need a decent #2 QB to protect yourself from a COVID bomb hitting your #1 QB, Taysom went to waivers a lot this week. In a 4pts pass TD league, if he’s back from COVID early in the week…he’s something to look at Week 17 at home v. CAR.

6) RB Dare Ogunbowale, JAX (Grade: D)

Instead of Scott-Howard, you could pursue Dare…but he has terrible offensive surroundings and is facing a semi-desperate team this week, the good-v-run NE defense. But he’s not a bad RB at all, and we are assuming (early in the week) that he’ll be the de facto lead RB with JRob now out…but who knows what JAX might pull this week at RB/rotation.

7) TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Grade: D)

Kmet keeps putting up steady PPR games with 3-6 catches a game, but he never scores a TD. He’s a dart throw that he finally gets one Week 17 v. NYG. What’s the difference between him and O’Shaughnessy for FF? Maybe if Foles starts again, Kmet has that advantage

8) WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Grade: D)

If he’s back from COVID early in the week, he will return to his new/emerging #2 WR spot where he has a nice matchup with Atlanta.

The risk here being there’s possible cold (30s) and snow or precipitation possible for Week 17 at Buffalo.

-----------------------------------------------

***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

1) RB Rex Burkhead, HOU

Big game Week 16, but if you consider it was against the weak-against-the-run Chargers, there’s some context to it. Houston RBs have been terrible for FF all season, pretty much, expect Rex Week 16. I don’t think he comes close to repeating it Week 17 at SF.

2) WR Byron Pringle, KC

Nice game against PIT…2 TDs…the kinda game you might have hoped for if Tyreek was OUT with COVID. Instead, Pringle had the game as Tyreek smiled and watched it on-field in their blowout of the Steelers. Great moment, likely not repeating…especially if Kelce is back this week.

3) WR James Proche, BAL

7 catches this week, but the big game came in a getting-blown-out affair with an emergency QB starter. When Lamar/Huntley return Week 17, there will be no follow up for Proche.

4) QB Mac Jones, NE

He’s getting pushed as an option week 17 by the FF media because he’s facing Jacksonville. The Pats aren’t a big ‘roll it up through the air’ kinda team. They only get more passing when they are down and chasing a good team and/or garbage time. That shouldn’t be the case here. I don’t see how you can have the confidence to give Mac a start, unless desperation hits.

5) WR Isaiah McKenzie, BUF

He was one of our ‘outta nowhere’ upside WRs of Week 16 and was going to be the main one to start the week until COVID and more injuries swept in, and we found (what I thought) was a comparable candidate (Berrios).

Well, McKenzie had a great Week 16/better than Berrios (who also scored a TD). He won’t follow that up Week 17, likely, if Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley return to action this week. He’s still just a deep sleeper for Week 17 even if Beasley, especially, isn’t back for Week 17. He’s not emerging, he was just at the right place/right time Week 16.

What people might be willing to spend on him, not sure he’ll give you that payback if Beasley-Davis are back…but of all the names on here, McKenzie is the one with the most real FF hope Week 17. I’m worried he gets put back in his box Week 17…the box he’s been in all year. He deserves better.

------------------------------

***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

***We’re past most trade deadlines now. If trades are still open in your league, you’ll get some of our ideas from the daily game reports. Dynasty leagues, as we get deeper into the season we’ll be discussing players to consider for trade in the offseason in the game reports.***

The Buy Low Players will resume again Week 1-2 next season!

-------------------------

***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walkaway.*

***We’re past most trade deadlines now. If trades are still open in your league, you’ll get some of our ideas from the daily game reports. Dynasty leagues, as we get deeper into the season we’ll be discussing players to consider for trade in the offseason in the game reports.***

The Sell High players will resume again Week 1-2 next season!

------------------------------

***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players

1) QB Trey Lance, SF

Jimmy G. is questionable…and Trey might start vs. HOU – and he’d be a QB1 projection.

2) RB Jaret Patterson, WSH

What if the now ‘done for the playoffs’ decide to shutdown Antonio Gibson and his multiple, concerning injuries? Patterson would be the lead back Week 17 v. PHI.

3) Kadarius Toney, NYG

Pure flyer he gets another 8+ target game but actually does something with it…like he did many, many weeks ago. Ross has scouted that game already today (I have not rewatched yet), and is telling me it was game-on with efforts to get Toney the ball right away…like a real plan. That provides hope he might go a step further with real results vs. CHI this week.

4) RB Samaje Perine, CIN

If Joe Mixon gets COVID or gets hurt or whatever…Perine fills in and is an RB1 threat vs. KC Week 17.

5) RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB

Had the play/run of the game Week 16…showing off some speed and vision we haven’t really seen from him prior…he hadn’t had much chance to show it yet. He’s in-line for more touches from his performance this past week, but also note…he’s the handcuff for RoJo in case a COVID thing hits.

6) RB Derrick Gore, KC

If CEH is out, and Darrel Williams gets hit with COVID or whatever the under-the-radar emerging Gore would be left to start Week 17.

7) RB Jake Funk, LAR

IF-IF-IF Darrell Henderson is re-injured and if(?) Cam Akers isn’t going to play…if Sony Michel gets hurt or whatever in practice this week, Funk is the emergency starter.

8) Ricky Seals-Jones, WSH

The Eagles defense is the worst against the TE in the NFL. Hell, even Evan Engram scored a TD against them last week. RSJ might be a possible TE1 projection…but with mild fears that Washington’s season is dead, and John Bates gets as much run.

9) WR Cyril Grayson, TB

Evans and Godwin and Perriman out, and who stepped in/up not-named Antonio Brown? Not Scotty Miller. Not Tyler Johnson. It was Cyril Grayson…the track speedster football convert who is so fast he often sneaks by/blows by coverage not thinking he’ll get a target. In a title game week, deep roster situation, looking for some boom-bust option if Evans is out again…here it is.

---------------------------------

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

1) TE Jack Doyle, IND

His potential rise with Wentz got cut-off the past 2 weeks and then he got hurt Week 16. His rise has been really cut down.

2) WR Emmanuel Sanders, BUF

He looks useless on the field lately, and did again Week 16 v. NE. When they really could’ve used him Week 16 with Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley out, Sanders was a ghost and Isaiah McKenzie popped instead.

3) WR Chase Claypool, PIT

Just reiterating – a total waste with Big Ben.

4) WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN

A.J. Brown back in full, no need to hang onto Westbrook anymore as some ‘best remaining’ Titans’ WR, when they had a WR injury crisis. *Late news…went on COVID list Monday as well.

--------------------------------

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--

1) Titans-DST

An emerging, young defense…and they’re aggressive…and Miami’s offense doesn’t like aggressive. Buffalo always bashes Tua’s offense. Tennessee is hard-nosed like the old Bills defense from a month+ ago (with Tre’Davious).

Week 17 = MIA

2) Bears-DST

Facing Glennon or Fromm…either way it’s a potential winner.

Week 17 = v. NYG

3) Browns-DST

Facing a sad Steelers offense has DST scoring potential.

Week 17 = PIT

4) Lions-DST

A long shot/deep sleeper DST play facing a very wobbly Seattle offense. Detroit’s defense has been gritty against weaker opponents of late.

Week 17 = at SEA

-------------------

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

1) LB E.J. Speed, IND

With Darius Leonard on IR, Speed started Week 16 and has 9 tackles, 1 PD, and played 100% of the snaps. He’s a wicked hitter. He could be a 10+ total tackle per game the next two games in place of Leonard. I’m so happy for Speed because he’s been buried on special teams for a couple years now. This is his first real chance at serious playing time.

2) SAF Andre Cisco, JAX 

Finally got some real playing time and looked like the best defender on the team. He’s quick, instinctive, and a brutal/excellent hitter.

5 tackles Week 16 was a season high as was his snap count on defense. If he plays more/starts Week 17…he’s a solid projection for 8+ tackles.

3) LB Zach Cunningham, TEN

Has started Weeks 15 and 16, just joined the team prior to that after being cut by HOU out of nowhere and is playing about 70% of the snaps in his first two games…but there’s talk he’s going to be the main man at linebacker soon due to his connection with Mike Vrabel.

4) SAF Tony Jefferson, BAL

Signed to the practice squad a few weeks ago, and the veteran was pushed into the starting lineup Week 16 and responded with 10 tackles and a sack. If he gets another start Week 17, he might have another double-digit tackle game.

5) LB Samson Ebukam, SF

His last three games: 3.3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2.0 QB hits per game. He’s rising up…not sure if opponent based or new inspiration, but he’s playing his normal number of snaps…just being more productive with them lately.

Outro: Good luck this week.

Time to land the plane this week…   https://youtu.be/RVMAwGXe3BY

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We will do the regular Tuesday night show on Wednesday due to all the schedule changes.

Hard out 10pmET for Christmas needs! No bonus food talk at the end this week's show unless we have some left before 10pmET :)

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2021 Fantasy Three Things/Five Players from Sunday’s Games: Week 15

An unusual Monday recap/lead-in…because instead of most games locked or hinging on the one remaining MNF game, we have four games/25% of the schedule to-go.

Things are looking mostly VERY good for the FFM universe right now for Week 15 wins/advancements, but anything can happen in the NFL/FF (like the Saints shutting out the Bucs, or the Cardinals getting crushed by the Lions), so we all wait around with bated breath for these final four games to play out.

On average, nearly 80% of FFM teams in my seasonal sample went to the playoffs (a representative mix for all formats, Dynasty, Redraft). And nearly half of those earned a bye this week. The other half+ playing actual games this week (whether a #1-2 seed that had to play or they were the last team getting into the playoffs) are tracking to win-rate 70%+ right now, maybe as high as 75-80% depending upon these last four games. Could go to 60% range if the next 48 hours suck.

As the KC guys go, so tends to go the FFM win-rate…so this week was set up for greatness Thursday night. The Kyler Sunday dud hurt, but then the Brady-Fournette-Godwin-Evans-Gronk-Kamara shockers/duds changed some opponent’s projections around to offset. Still, so much firepower still to go for and against us, it’s hard to say which side of 70% win-rate our group will wind up on. Worse case scenario, more of us reading this move onto next week by Wednesday morning – via win or bye. That’s a good thing, but we want as many of our comrades to come with us to the next round.

Because of the Tuesday games, I’ll have a shift in the Video Q&As this week. Some of you are having your normal Tuesday night waivers, but more likely your waivers are being moved to Wednesday night. I might have a mini-Q&A Tuesday pregame kickoff but then the traditional version of the show Wednesday. We’ll announce the times ASAP, but for sure we will have something Wednesday night – just not sure the time yet.

We’ll have Week 16 projections out Tuesday night after the two games (both at 7pmET) kickoff.

If you have sit-start/strategy questions for these remaining Week 15 four games that you want a second-look outside opinion on, feel free to email me with the subject starting words (all caps) WEEK 15 QUESTION – (and then add to it from there, after the dash, as needed)…the all cap beginning helps me to go to it right away in my overloaded Monday inbox.

RC Example for the email subject line: WEEK 15 QUESTION – Tuesday night dilemma

Email me with any assistance desired at rc4metrics@gmail.com

Be sure to let me know scoring system particulars relevant to the question (PPR-half-non, 4 or 6pts per pass TD, and bonuses, any anything that helps me) and your situation…current score/projected score, players remaining to go, whatever helps me dial into the situation – I will get a lot of emails, so help me know your scoring at a glance to get down to business weighing in on your conundrum. I will try my best to answer every one of them ASAP/before the early kickoff tonight.

Four NFL games to go this week, and the majority reading this are projected to win -- but are really in a ‘you never know’ situation. Even if you’re projected to lose right now…those projections are hardly worth the paper they are printed on. It’s gonna make these next two days of watching a thrill-ride…Fantasy Football delivers us the Christmas gift of must watch TV.

Let’s close this thing out tonight and/or tomorrow. Bring in your closer players and end this thing (caution some language): https://youtu.be/HqRV0zp96sE?t=14

  ===== THREE THINGS (from Sunday games)…  =====

*These are my first reactions from the live watches last week, and opinions/scouting can change when I watch the tape back all week.

KC-LAC

 -- Anyone else think Justin Jackson (13-86-0, 1-13-0/1) was the best RB on the field in this game? Had he gotten a clean start without Ekeler active…he probably would’ve rushed for 130+ yards and scored at least one TD. No more debate on who the handcuff for Ekeler is in 2021. JJax is an unrestricted free agent in 2022.

 -- I said (above) ‘on the field’ about Justin Jackson…that included him looking better than fast becoming a useless 1st-round pick Clyde Edwards Helaire (9-32-0, 2-18-0/4). Take a look at those CEH numbers – a huge game against a run defense that’s been a disaster, and CEH is a waste of space…again. Not even a real/desired part of the game plan. He’s an RB2-3 way more often than an RB1 threat.

 -- No star QB has more trouble getting a star WR the ball then Hebert-to-Mike Williams (3-49-0/9). So many near-miss TDs and near-miss big plays. He looks like a dominant WR1 to my eyes…his production is WR2.5 since the blazing hot start to the season. I don’t know how it’s going to change ahead. He’s a WR2 with upside every week…and usually a disappointment but so potentially good/great any given week that it’s hard to bench him.

The overemphasis on Williams, by defenses, has led to three-straight games with a TD for Jalen Guyton (2-20-1/2).

NE-IND

 -- Before he got ejected/kicked out of the game, Michael Pittman (1-7-0/5) was getting shut down by J.C. Jackson (3 tackles, 3 PDs). QBs don’t even want to throw anywhere near JCJ’s way. Week 15…Stefon Diggs will probably be the next victim, especially if it is cold in Buffalo (and likely it will be).

I’m pro-Pittman but his numbers are really tailing off as we go…as teams double him more and more. He is becoming Kyle Pitts and Mike Williams-esque…teams are taking them out because they know they’re the best weapons and the O-Cs/QBs have no answer other than to make them decoys.

 -- Hunter Henry (6-77-2/8) had his best game by far as a Patriot. You attack Indy with your TEs…arguably/statistically the worst against the TE unit in football after Week 15 settles. Week 16 = Zach Ertz has his shot at them.

It will likely be a much different situation/outcome next week for Henry v. Buffalo in the cold.

 -- Rhamondre Stevenson (10-38-0, 1-4-0/1) got the start and had RB1 hopes written all over him…and then this dud. The Pats got down big, quickly and the run game got lost in the 2nd-half + the Colts defense was inspired all game + he was about to get a shot at a 1-yard TD run in the 2nd-half and the Pats went offsides before the snap, blowing the moment.

Once Damien Harris returns, the excitement is out back in a box on Stevenson…an #2 RB splitting touches, an RB3 you hope scores a TD to make him a worthwhile FF start.

CAR-BUF

 -- Gabriel Davis (5-85-2/7) continued his TD push…4 TDs in his last 3 games. He’s not becoming a heavily desired weapon for Allen, per se…just available and Allen making due with Emmanuel Sanders hurt/fading off. Davis is in a good spot to be the #2 with Allen, but cold weather games ahead including a tough matchup with NE Week 16.

 -- The guy who seems to have the best relationship with Allen these days seems to be Dawson Knox (4-38-0/5), just what my eyes say watching their games this year, but it was a ‘meh’ FF effort here. Knox had a key drop of a 10+, possible 20+ yard play in this game to further the FF pain. My fear of Knox is just that – he’s an improved catcher of the ball, but still not great…and it pops up as an issue during unfavorable weather.

 -- Cam Newton (18-39 for 156 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 15-71-1) looks so bad as the Panthers QB…I wouldn’t be surprised if he got benched now that the Panthers are officially out of the playoffs.

NYJ-MIA

 -- Well…in a season where Cordarrelle Patterson and D’Onta Foreman and Taysom Hill and various other players from many years ago now FF-matter, I guess it makes sense that Duke Johnson (22-107-2, 1-20-0/1) is now the best RB in the NFL.

Brian Flores will stick with Duke, especially with how tough Duke was running Week 15 -- lost in translation will be that this happened against the Jets. I’m pretty sure this won’t happen against the Saints next week…

 -- Braxton Berrios (2-10-1, 1-26-0/1) ended up having a decent FF week, but showed no signs of being ‘that guy’ for Wilson in the passing game. Berrios got a jet sweep TD run to save his game. He got more carries (2) than targets (1), so no consistency of targeting here.

 -- Michael Carter (8-18-0, 1-2-0/2) was back from injury and was supposed to be a big part of the offense, but he was just a split with Tevin Coleman (8-50-0)…and nothing exciting at all within that. Carter probably takes more touches ahead, but in this offense there is little hope of a big FF upside but Carter can be an RB2…but not likely with 9 touches in a game. Should be higher as we go…you’d think.

ARI-DET

 -- This game was dominated by Detroit from bell-to-bell, so the James Conner (8-39-0, 2-31-0/2) experience was derailed…no plays at the 1-yard line to push Conner in this game. Heck, the Cardinals were lucky to even score in this game.

Chase Edmonds (6-53-0, 0-0-0/1) was back and took touches, and looked more explosive than Conner…but, again, the run game was abandoned because Detroit had the ball so much and led so large most of the game.

Arizona plays two top NFL teams with emerging defenses the next two weeks (IND and DAL)…Arizona, and its weapons, could be in some trouble…but both games are in a dome so the passing game might be OK.

 -- Craig Reynolds (26-112-0, 1-5-0/1) just rolled over the Arizona defense. He’s played well enough the past two games that even if Jamaal Williams is back next week, Reynolds should be the starter (unless Swift returns)…but ‘who knows’ what Dan Campbell will do. Regardless, Reynolds has earned a role (sans Swift).

 -- Another big target/production week for Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-90-1/11). I have not been onboard with Amon-Ra from the jump and thought this week he might fade back, but he just ate up a disinterested Cardinals team. It’s an easy pitch and catch throw that teams are taking lightly because ‘Detroit’. It’s working, so go with it. I missed this spike. I’m still not interested long-term.

HOU-JAX

 -- A perfect scenario for the Jacksonville offense going into this game…Urban fired, a player friendly interim, facing a defense missing several key players to injury/COVID, and playing at home…and the Jaguars totally sucked. Trevor Lawrence (22-38 for 210 yards for 0 TDs/0 INTs) is so nothing of a QB…his crap rolls downhill onto all the other FF options. They get the Jets next week…and I don’t care that it is a ‘favorable’ matchup…no such thing for the Jags.

 -- Davis Mills (19-30 for 209 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) has not been afforded the practice time nor does he have the O-Line Trevor has (Mills has the worst O-Line in the NFL), nor does anyone in the football world think Mills is ‘generational’ – but Mills has played better than Lawrence all year, and did again here. Mills gives hope to his FF options, at least…unlike Lawrence.

 -- I thought Nico Collins (2-14-0/4) could surprise this game with his growing connection with Mills, but he put up a dud. Just note, Collins did catch a TD pass here…but his 2nd foot landed out of bounds wiping it away. Collins is still a deep sleeper week-to-week right now, but you’d have to really stretch to start him unless a deep roster league situation.

DAL-NYG

 -- I was so used to thinking Tony Pollard (12-74-0, 3-13-0/3) was out again this week, that when I was watching the seven 1pmET games at one time live Sunday, I kept seeing this Dallas handoff and explosion…and thinking, for a moment, ‘Wow, Zeke is getting his legs back!’ – to soon find out, it was Pollard.

Every game that I watch of Dallas this year, Pollard always looks better. I know Elliott is not 100%, but it may be the cold reality anymore…Pollard > Zeke, only Jerry plowed all his money into Elliott.

The year it makes fiscal sense to walk away from Ezekiel…2023, not 2022.

 -- Another dud game from Dak Prescott (28-37 for 217 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) and his receivers all suffered…the worst of their big three is: Amari Cooper (2-8-0/5). Amari is a WR2-3 week-to-week with QB2 Dak…we have to rewire our brains in that direction right now.

Amari’s last five games off PPR scoring: 9-9-6-18-3.

Dak’s last five games of 4pts pass TD scoring: 4-23-11-10-12

 -- Jake Fromm (6-12 for 82 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) may be about to get the start over Mike Glennon (13-23 for 99 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs)…just because Glennon is taking them nowhere, so why not take a look at Fromm? A good matchup for the Eagles-DST Week 16 either way.

TEN-PIT

 -- Instead of riding D’Onta Foreman (22-108-0, 2-27-0/3), the Titans messed around with Dontrell Hilliard (9-49-0, 4-10-0/6) early and their offense sputtered…and then as they went more with Foreman, it was a little too late. Foreman looked good, but he could’ve done so much more. Also, they kept running sweeps and off-tackle with Foreman when they were crushing it up the middle (like Dalvin Cook did to PIT on TNF Week 14). I have no idea what the Titans were thinking with their offensive game plan here.

 -- Not-as-good-as-D’Onta RB Najee Harris (12-18-0, 2-8-0/5) is dying to the FF finish line. He is so overrated, but to his defense…he has zero blocking. He’ll have volume value for FF regardless.

 -- Wondering if Chase Claypool (0-12-0/2) would have a good follow up from his nice efforts Week 14? The answer was a resounding ‘No’. There is such little connection between Ben and anyone not named Diontae that Claypool (and Washington, McCloud, Freiermuth) is just a random event rotating around Diontae. Totally unreliable FF options outside of Diontae.

CIN-DEN

 -- Joe Mixon (17-58-0, 1-2-0/1) went down late in this game and couldn’t get back in…I would guess he’s going to be out next week, but it’s just an early guess looking at the pain he was in and inability to walk right on the sidelines. Samaje Perine (4-30-0, 2-13-0/2) then becomes an RB1 threat next week v. BAL.

 -- Teddy Bridgewater (12-22 for 98 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) was carted off when he hit his head hard on the field. Drew Lock (6-12 for 88 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) came in and looked pretty decent…he led a drive down to the red zone about to take the lead for the win, but had the ball stripped from him on a pass rush for a turnover that totally killed the momentum Lock had built.

Lock won’t be a QB1 projection next week, but he will be a sleeper QB2…if he is starting, and I assume he will.

 -- Credit the Denver defense…they shutdown the two top WRs for Cincy. Tee Higgins (2-23-0/3) and Ja’Marr Chase (1-3-0/4) had terrible FF games. Denver is crossing over from ‘pretty good pass defense’ to one of the best over the past few weeks. Everyone in the secondary is healthy and gelling.

ATL-SF

 -- Jeff Wilson (21-110-1, 2-9-0/2) has been overdue this type of game. It helped that Atlanta was his opponent. Won’t be so easy against Tennessee next week…if Wilson even starts. It’s 50/50 on whether Elijah Mitchell will be fully ready or not.

 -- Arthur Smith has found a new low…in his quest for ‘worst head coach in the NFL’ (now that Urban Meyer has been fired)…he previously killed off Kyle Pitts (4-77-0/7) with his unimaginative offensive mind, but now he is killing off Cordarrelle Patterson (11-18-0, 2-5-0/2). Everything that was radically working with CP has been ditched in favor of being a regular old boring RB taking runs up the middle.

Patterson’s numbers have been fading…he’s falling to RB2-RB3 in this nightmare offense.

 -- Deebo Samuel (6-29-1, 4-60-0/5) is now the most Cordarrelle player in the NFL, I guess. He’s not blowing up the stat sheets (yards or catches) or the tape, but that guy is gonna score a rushing (not receiving) TD every week without fail. You gotta keep riding it.

GB-BAL

 -- With the split role at RB for Green Bay now, it’s taking former RB1 Aaron Jones (13-58-0, 2-12-1/2) and former RB3-4 A.J. Dillon (7-22-1, 1-13-0/1) into two mid-range RB2s in touch counts/production. The new Gordon-Javonte duo in Fantasy.

 -- Tyler Huntley (28-40 for 215 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 13-73-2) played an incredible game here considering the circumstances…against a very good Green Bay pass defense. It should make the Ravens think twice about signing Lamar to a huge contract extension, but there is 0.0% chance it will. This is the best the Ravens offense has looked all year, doing so against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 -- Rashod Bateman (1-5-0/2) dropped right off after a nice game last week with Huntley. So, whether it’s Huntley or Lamar ahead (in 2021), you can’t trust Bateman…he’s Baltimore’s Chase Claypool – talented, but in the wrong spot/unreliable for FF.

NO-TB

 -- Wow…Fournette-Godwin-Evans all lost in-game, early. I was thinking…’God has finally had it with Tom Brady’ in the 2nd-half. But then after the game, I thought: ‘You know what? This is probably going to be another blessing for Tom. What’s left to the Brady story for him to accomplish? How about he loses all his key WRs and RB, and goes on and wins another Super Bowl?’

We’ll be trying to figure out the FF-angles to all of this during the week…how long these guys are out for, and who the natural fill-ins are, etc.

Suddenly, Antonio Brown is the most valuable player in Fantasy Football. And Ronald Jones (8-63-0, 2-8-0/2) might not be far behind him. Tyler Johnson (4-41-0/7) will matter a lot if Brown is back, and Godwin is out (likely he’s out for the next 2-3 weeks).

Rob Gronkowski (2-29-0/11)…you better watch your back this week…stay away from lightning and piano’s being lifted by crane into buildings like it’s the early 1900’s.

 -- This was the game I feared from Taysom Hill (13-27 for 154 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 11-33-0) this week…Tampa shutting him down, especially on the ground. Better outlook for him the next two weeks: v. MIA and v. CAR both in New Orleans.

 -- Marquez Callaway (6-112-0/9) had a game here…his best game/usage this season, regardless of stats…just to ‘my eyes’. He’s established as Taysom’s guy with this event, you’d think -- but that’s still not likely to be anything consistent/amazing for FF ahead, but it does make him a viable WR3…not a WR4+ anymore.

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS…  =====

*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

1a) RB Ronald Jones, TB (Grade: B-/C+)

Upcoming: at CAR, at NYJ

ONLY if Leonard Fournette is out and you hope it’s for two games, not just one. You want to get to Week 17 with RoJo as clear lead and facing the Jets.

1b) RB Samaje Perine, CIN (Grade: B-/C+)

Upcoming: BAL and KC

Without knowing the full details yet, I thought the Mixon injury looked like at least week, possibly two. We’ll see. If Mixon is out, Perine goes in and puts up around the same results.

*Which RB is a better chase between RoJo and Perine all depends upon the severity of the lead RBs injuries, which we don’t fully know yet as of this writing.

2) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Grade: B-/C+)

I was wrong, this is keeping up…8.7 catches, 83.0 yards, and 0.67 TDs per game the last three weeks. Arizona played him like they didn’t care either. At ATL, at SEA the next two weeks are hopes for a continuation.

3) WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Grade: C+)

20+ points in a game in two of his last 4 FF-games. As I’ve been pushing the past few weeks: he’s the kinda guy that can win you FF playoff games…or lose them.

4) WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Grade: C+/C)

ONLY if Godwin is out…you hope/want Johnson to be taking on Godwin’s role and he’ll put up some similar numbers potentially. It seems like Godwin will be out the rest of the season…a really good spot for Johnson, but he might get left to WR3 action with Gronk-AB getting all the gold.

Upcoming: at CAR, at NYJ

5) WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Grade: C)

Davis is like Buffalo’s discount version of MVS…the #2 WR in a great passing game usually means good FF things. 4 TDs in his last three games and Emmanuel Sanders may be out again Week 16.

6) RB Craig Reynolds, DET (Grade: C-/D+)

Earning his way to a starting role even when Jamaal Williams returns, but likely is just a split role with Williams back Week 16. If D’Andre Swift returns…then Reynolds is an ‘F’ waiver pickup.

7) RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Grade F)

You only really care if you already own Austin Ekeler…we all now know JJax is the proper handcuff. This is way more important to the Ekeler owner.

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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

1) RB Rex Burkhead, HOU

Never trust a Houston RB for FF…no matter HOW MANY touches they get.

2) RB Devin Singletary, BUF

Buffalo RBs are almost always useless. When one scores a TD the prior week, people get a moment of hope/excited…I say, no thanks.

3) WR Marquez Callaway, NO

Nice game Week 15…the first time in a long time. Blame a different kind of attack by NO so they didn’t have to try and run vs. Tampa. The Saints will go back run-heavy ahead, you’d think…it’s their bread and butter. Way better WR options out there to mess with first (see above list).

4) RB Duke Johnson, MIA

He did have a nice game Week 15, but it was against the Jets. He’ll probably get a shot to keep this ‘starting’ job but he’ll have Myles Gaskin coming on to take his job back, plus Phillip Lindsay will push for touches as well when he’s off the COVID list.

5) Keshawn Vaughn, TB

Vaughn has some slight value as a ‘what if Fournette and RoJo are down?’ type handcuff but make no mistake – he will have a limited role behind RoJo if Fournette is out. There is no magical Vaughn takeover of the backfield coming.

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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

***We’re past most trade deadlines now. If trades are still open in your league, you’ll get some of our ideas from the daily game reports. Dynasty leagues, as we get deeper into the season we’ll be discussing players to consider for trade in the offseason in the game reports.***

The Buy Low Players will resume again Week 1-2 next season!

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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walkaway.*

***We’re past most trade deadlines now. If trades are still open in your league, you’ll get some of our ideas from the daily game reports. Dynasty leagues, as we get deeper into the season we’ll be discussing players to consider for trade in the offseason in the game reports.***

The Sell High players will resume again Week 1-2 next season!

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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players

1) QB Tyler Huntley, BAL (if LJax out)

I believe there is a near 50/50 possibility that Lamar can’t go Week 16 v. CIN, and thus Huntley would draw another start…and then you have to consider him in with the Hurts-Taysom-Fields crowd of mobile QB/FF producers.

2) QB Justin Fields, CHI

Goes at SEA Week 16. His Week 15 MNF game v. MIN may launch him into a QB people really chase on a level of thought like possessing a Hurts or Taysom or Lamar type QB. A nice #2 QB if you don’t have one you can trust in 4pts per pass TD leagues. 21.0 FF PPG average in his past three full starts. 61.3 yards rushing per game the past 4 games.

3) Ricky Seals-Jones, WSH

The Eagles defense is getting beaten up by TEs pretty hard this season. RSJ faces them Week 15 (TUE night)…if he goes off on them to any degree, then people might be chasing him off waivers pretty hard this week – as they realize he’s facing Philly again Week 17, title week for most. If he shows up/out Tuesday, then he’s not going to be a bad #2 TE for you to hold for depth and for a possible Week 17 dart throw on the matchup. He’s a thought at least…for the TE frustrated.

4) QB Jared Goff, DET

Goff has 9 TDs/2 INTs with a (2-2) record the past 4 weeks. He just took to a top defense Week 15/ARI. At ATL and at SEA the next two weeks…nice matchups.

5) WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE

Looks great on tape…is flashing some signs of being a #1 WR for Baker, but he has at GB (top cover corners all over here) and at PIT (very cold weather?) the next two weeks.

6) WR Allen Lazard, GB

Just noting that this is the rare case where a backup WR is a legit handcuff for the #1 WR for a team (Davante). If you have Davante and you’re marching on in the playoffs then one of your backup WRs probably needs to be Lazard for insurance…and he’s a reasonable WR3/Flex type WR week-to-week outside of that, but would be a WR1-1.5 filling in for Davante.

7) WR Jaylen Guyton, LAC

Three weeks in a row with a TD…it’s good to be a starting WR with Justin Herbert as your QB. You could do worse for a flyer Flex Week 16 at HOU.

8) TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN

IF Drew Lock gets the start, he’s very close with his former college teammate Albert O. – and thus Albert might be a fringe TE1 candidate with Lock starting.

9) WR Kadarius Toney, NYG

Could be back Week 16…and is the only real weapon the Giants have left. Might they push him a bunch of touches the last two games of the season? Or does he die along with the offense…?

10) RB Latavius Murray, BAL

After a few weeks of disappearing, Latavius started honing back in on his old job as the lead back carrying the ball for Baltimore. For the RB desperate teams/leagues.

11) QB Drew Lock, DEN

If Lock does draw a start in Week 16…and/or Week 17, he’ll have the advantage of playing in a dome in LA back-to-back weeks in December/January when many QBs will be playing in the Northwest/Midwest cold (likely). And Lock isn’t a bad QB for a backup. Better than teddy for FF purposes.

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 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

1) WR Julio Jones, ATL

Remember when Tennessee traded for him and everyone went nuts at how it gave the Titans such a great shot at the AFC South and a shot at the Super Bowl. Sorry, he’s shot/sucks/is always hurt. He’s hurt again.

2) WR Courtland Sutton, DEN

I said it last week, but just a re-reminder…he has fallen down a well and no one can save him, not even Drew Lock.

3) WR Chase Claypool, PIT

You can’t trust him, so if you see other interesting things…it may feel weird, but Claypool is not a must-hold. Guys like Jaylen Guyton or Kendrick Bourne or Lazard-DPJ-MVS, etc. are producing better…and that’s just to name a few waiver-like WRs out there. You might be better suited to get another DST or TE or whatever item instead of wasting time holding this 2021 pipedream.

4) RB Zack Moss and Matt Breida, BUF

Moss was inactive on purpose this week, in a game week/weather condition that would have suited his running style…he’s done something to ruin his standing with the head coach. Breida never really was, but he had a blip a few weeks ago with no follow up and barely touched the ball the last two weeks.  

5) WR Rondale Moore, ARI

DeAndre Hopkins out/done for 2021 did not spring Rondale to anything fresh this week. He hasn’t been useful in months. Check back in 2022.

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***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--

1) Eagles-DST

They might be lucky enough to catch the Jake Fromm debut and then at WSH is a safe matchup…and both games outdoors/cold weather likely to help slow down the offenses.

Week 16 = NYG

Week 17 = at WSH

2) Chargers-DST

Two solid matchups to finish the typical FF season. The Chargers weakness is against the run…but Houston can’t run.

Week 16 = at HOU

Week 17 = DEN

3a) Falcons-DST

Week 16 v. DET might be something for those in need. The Falcons D has been getting opportunistic.

3b) Lions-DST

Week 16 v. ATL might be a shot in the dark because the Falcons are so bad. Last week, the Lions ragtag group shutdown the Cardinals.

4a) Bears-DST

Facing NYG Week 17 at home in the (likely) freezing cold. It’s something...especially for the FF finals week.

If you hold the DSTs of PHI and CHI…the next two weeks, you’d get both NYG matchups.

4b) Giants-DST

Facing CHI Week 17…it’s something. I like the CHI angle better than the NYG one.

5) Seahawks-DST

The schedule looks tasty, but if they lost to the Rams on MNF…they will have lost all motivations. However, if they beat the Rams…then these two games could be sweet for this DST with all the motivation in the world.

Week 16 = CHI

Week 17 = DET

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 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

1) LB Jonas Griffith, DEN

Got his first real play time Week 14 and made 5 tackles in 23 snaps. Week 15, he racked up 9 tackles, 2 QB hits and a TFL. He’s earning more and more playing time and might be an impact IDP down the stretch.

2) CB Brandin Echols, NYJ

Playing his heart out as a 6th-round rookie that captured a starting job Week 1 this season. He missed a few games recently and just got back to play Week 14 – and made a splash upon his return…4 tackles, 3 PDs, 1 INT TD.

He has 6 PDs his last six full games played and a decent (for a CB) 5.1 tackles per game his last 7 games.

3) LB Zach Cunningham, TEN

Surprisingly cut by the Texans midseason, after being a linebacker leader for them the past few years…picked up by his former D-C Mike Vrabel two weeks ago, and led the team in tackles this week (albeit with just 6). If he is going to start for Tennessee ahead…then he can be an IDP producer.  

4) DT Naquan Jones, TEN  

4 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 sack this week. He’s perking up over the past few weeks and earning starts -- 2.5 sacks and 5 TFLs in his last 5 games. The UDFA rookie is drafting a ride off Jeffrey Simmons, but you’ll take it!

5) LB Garret Wallow, HOU

He’s been mostly on special teams this season but was forced to start after the starting LB duo was out with COVID this week…and he responded with 11 tackles, 1 sack this week. He may be back to special teams Week 16, but maybe they need him…or want to see more.

One of our top 5-6 LB prospects for 2021, and he showed a little of why in this game.

Outro: The next 48 hours objective…close this victory out! https://youtu.be/kjcwXPyKQ58

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Stream info below if you need it...

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2021 Video Q&A Subscriber Live Stream Prep/Access Info

My preseason live video Q&A shows will be conducted on Amazon’s top-notch live stream service ‘Twitch’.

If you have used Twitch before, then you know what to do come showtime.

If you’ve not used Twitch before, it’s easy…

You can access/watch Twitch several different ways:

1) From your computer or tablet.

2) From your smartphone (download the Twitch App).

3) From your smart TV on the Twitch App/channel.

You can watch without having a Twitch account…it’s live/free video, but if no account (user/pw) then you cannot ask any questions in the chat side.

But if you want to be able to communicate with/ask questions of me via the chat -- make sure you set up a Twitch account…it’s free and just setup/use any username/password you desire. It will take you like two minutes or less to set up.

Quick test to find our channel by searching for ‘ffmetrics’, and you’ll see our logo/channel. If you’ve never seen a Twitch stream before -- click on any random live show happening from the Twitch homepage to see what something in action looks like.

Here’s a quick link to get straight through to the FFM channel: https://www.twitch.tv/ffmetrics

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If you have an account (user/pw), you can choose to ‘follow’ the ‘ffmetrics’ channel and then as soon as I click the button to go live…you’ll get an instant notification on your devices that we’re going live (good to get the App for your phone for that reason). If you don’t ‘follow’ the channel, then just be there at the appointed time and as soon as we’re live you’ll see us.

Twitch has an excellent ‘chat room’ function. You can ask (type into chat) me any football question you desire, and I’ll go through the stream and answer them in order.

I only ask that you make it as easy for me to answer/expand upon your question by doing the following…

If you want to send in a fantasy question, please note in shorthand your pertinent league particulars – PPR/half/non-PPR, 4 or 6pts per pass TD, any performance bonuses in your scoring (100+ yds or 300+ yds, etc.), Redraft-Dynasty-Best Ball, lineup things like ‘SuperFlex/2QB or 3WR starts, roster size, 10-team, 12-team, 16-team, etc.

You don’t have to write a book, just give me the shorthand I can figure out so that I don’t make an uneducated analysis of your situation…if need be, I’ll ask for clarification and I’ll come back to your question when I see the clarification.

*You can put (examples):

12-tm, 17-man, PPR, 6pts pass, redraft

or

10-tm, 20-man, Non-PPR, 2QB, 4pts pass w bonuses

-Try and put these quick notes before your question…anything that helps me know the situation.

I will take any football question you want to hear my take on – fantasy, draft prep, trade, rookie draft, handicapping, prop bets, things you think I’m dumb about, website clarifications, etc.

I will open the show with 2-3-4-5-6-7-8 things of interest/importance (whatever I have) to go over from my notes from that day…sometimes it’s big/huge/juicy stuff for fantasy/betting. I never know until that day. I try to keep some neat tidbits for the show opening.

After the show opens and I clear my quick notes, I start going through the questions from first to last. You can submit your question to the chat anytime and get it into the queue, and I’ll hit it when we get to the Q&A part after my openers.

All I ask is that you keep it clean, rated G for your questions/comments…and I will stream close to ‘G’ as well, so that you don’t have any issues listening with family/kids around. I’m pretty ‘G’ all the time anyways.

After the show closes, it will remain on Twitch for you to watch/listen to on-demand/anytime…if you missed anything, want to re-visit, couldn’t attend live. It stays up for a week or so.

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