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‍2022 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update (7/06/2022)

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Players on the move in the rankings: Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, Terace Marshall, Austin Hooper, Baker Mayfield, Rashard Higgins, Kendall Hinton, Daniel Jones, Matt Corral, Sam Darnold, Brian Robinson, Jeff Wilson among others

New Player Commentary Added: Patrick Taylor, Jalen Reagor, Josh Adams, D’Wayne Eskridge, Scotty Miller, Tylan Wallace, Tyree Jackson, Colby Parkinson, Derrick Gore, Darius Slayton, Noah Brown, Jared Cook, A.J. Green, Josh Gordon, Kendall Hinton, Jordan Howard, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Jalen Guyton, Nick Foles, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson, Antonio Brown, Denzel Mims, Noah Gray (use the 'date' filter to see all the latest)

Player Commentary Key Updates: All the Panthers affected by the Baker trade + Baker (check updates/by date filter on the form)

Undervalued/Overvalued Report: values/rank updated and D.J. Moore removed from the 'overvalued report' (check dates for latest player)

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 -- To find all these changes quickly without searching all over…

You can sort/filter/select the recent dates we added/made changes to commentary by the ‘date’ column on the commentary page in the draft guide options. You can select the latest date(s) options and the program will filter to only the players with those recent commentary adds/changes.

*Find the Draft Guide rankings from the FFM home page, Draft Guide tab, select report to view.

-- Log In Questions?* You can reset your password if lost/needed or you can contact our Tech Support via our Support Form any issue on any of our websites and products for the most rapid support! Thank you. --

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Our 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Package of projections and special reports (and more) are now available. See our home page to receive your subscription.

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FFM/CFM Daily Summary...July 6, 2022/Wednesday

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Items posted so far today...  

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-- 2022 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update (7/06/2022)

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-- 2022 Dynasty Offseason: Four Things Report for 7/6/2022

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-- 2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Texans 40, Chargers 29

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-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB Will Levis, Kentucky      

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*Our summer Devy series begins July 1st and two-a-days Devy reports runs throughout July.

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*Watch or Listen to the Tuesday Night Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available after the show closes on Tuesday night.*

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*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*

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======================================================================

*The 2022 FFM Draft Guide Package and In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*

Our annual Draft Guide package will be available for early signup June 7th starting at noon.

-Our Draft Guide program goes from June-to-Sept. kickoff -- constantly updating our computer model’s top 600 offensive player and top 500+ IDP rankings/valuations with 400+ player commentaries on their outlook/schedule/depth chart and more analyzed through a variety of scoring systems.

-As always, our popular market reports… Our ever-updating all preseason Overvalued and Undervalued player value reports -- a ranking and commentary on the greatest bargains or player-avoids for the upcoming redraft, best ball, etc., season.

-We’ve added a new report to the Draft Guide package this year – The Freakshow report…highlighting and discussing some players to consider who defy ADPs (and logic sometimes). Several late redraft and best ball grabs discussed – we rank them and have commentary on their freakiness/value. A few obvious names, and some players way off-the-grid.

-All our usual reports and rankings plus special access to all our other special reports, insider intel, and a host of other tools and materials.

-You can sign up for our In-season coverage and rankings/analysis at the same time…for a combo price/discount.

In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.

-Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription is still available, as well as our College Football Metrics subscription focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.

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2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Texans 40, Chargers 29

A total embarrassment by the Chargers…that could’ve been avoided. Two things really stood out to me here that the Chargers did to themselves. Not that they would have shined if they made two specific changes in this game, but maybe they would have won.

(1) They have transitioned All-American, 1st-round draft pick 2020 Kenneth Murray from interior LB, where he fits, to now trying to make him an edge rusher.

Murray has no clue of what he’s doing at edge rusher. About every time he was in this game the Texans ran it his way…to/through wide-open holes. The Texans left tackle had his easiest day of blocking ever. Murray is a great prospect, I think, but he looked like a total idiot trying to pass rush. He’s a linebacker not an edge rusher. His career is evaporating before his very eyes. Why the Chargers staff doesn’t see this is beyond me.

(2) Even worse, because it’s been an all-year problem – Jared Cook is killing this offense. They insist on him as the lead TE in the passing game, and he’s so slow (age has caught up) that he can’t get to the spots he’s supposed to be fast enough, can’t beat coverage enough, and does nothing with the ball after the catch. Remember his twisted body drop in the KC game/loss for an easy (lost) TD, but his tin man body couldn’t get in place to make the easy catch? He had a few plays like that in the KC game that hurt the team in low key/subtle ways.

In this game, in the 4th-quarter with LAC trying to speed their offense down two scores with only minutes remaining…Herbert threw him a pass on a medium route where Cook was running ahead of coverage (shock) but then Cook inexplicably slowed-stopped/sat down on the route he was running open, as Herbert fired a laser to where Cook was going if he stayed in-stride, but Cook had stopped, the ball sailed right to a DB 5+ yards behind the play for an easy pick-six, and squashed the ballgame.

I thought Brandon Staley would be the star coach of this 2021 rookie crop…he’s turning out to be just another guy who really loves football but has no clue on personnel and keeps making the same mistakes over and over and over every week – my guess is he is afraid of the veteran players and non confrontational with his staff (just a pure guess). He’s supposed to be a defensive guru, and yet their defense gets worse every week. His O-C is killing the offense…how do you ruin Justin Herbert? By trying to ‘get Jared Cook going’ for starters…as Mike Williams is a decoy/blocker. Josh Palmer is an impact WR for them right now…and he can’t even start unless COVID forces it…and then he barely gets the ball enough.

Everything that could be done wrong seems to be done wrong by the Chargers right now. This loss was devastating to their playoff chances. They have to win out to get in, lose this week to Denver and they are probably cooked for a wild card. It didn’t have to come to this. They’re doing it to themselves.

Houston (4-11) took the gift from LAC and are now on a two-game win streak…which probably gives David Culley another year. A ‘win’ that is a ‘loss’ for the Texans future, but I have to say – the Texans have played hard enough under Culley to warrant another year…and Davis Mills is turning out to be better than most of the high pick rookie QBs, so in the grand scheme of all coaches suck anyway…why not give Culley one more year? He was put into an impossible situation to begin with. He hasn’t been any worse than Brandon Staley…just Culley tried to push Tyrod Taylor, while Staley has the safety net of Justin Herbert.

Culley getting Houston to 4 wins is more impressive than Staley coaching his team down to 8 wins, currently.

LAC is (8-7) and plays a do-or-die game with Denver Week 17…and I think they’re in trouble of getting knocked off and kicked out of what should have been an easy playoff season. The Chargers have to win out to get to the playoffs now. A lot of what Brandon Staley has as a leader of men plays out the next two weeks of games he should win, he must win.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Well, David Culley was mistreated by Houston management and fired (shocker). He isn't a good NFL head coach...but who is? And if they moved Culley because they had a hot candidate in their grasp, then I get it...but you dump Culley for Lovie Smith?

Culley defeated, outcoached boy wonder Brandon Staley...who I lose a little more faith in with every week of re-reading my 2021 season reports as the week's go on. This game was where the Chargers should have come to grips with a lot of staff changes for the season ahead...instead they changed defensive personnel. We'll see if it works.

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Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- No need to do anymore Justin Jackson (11-64-2, 8-98-0/9) FF victory laps. The ‘stars aligned’ for the big FF week…and now they don’t, for JJax. Austin Ekeler (DNP) is back, and they’ll do a 70/30 split Ekeler/JJax and that’s that. Fun while it lasted for JJ.

This RB run we are on through the FF playoffs…it’s a mental note of how, in most typical-sized leagues, the RB position does not warrant the preseason/redraft hysteria that we all give it. Whatever breaks at RB, you can fix it. Having the dominant WRs and high-end QB gets you by until you get the RB slot figured out week-to-week. …and just when you think you got the RB position settled for your FF team, you don’t…so stop being paranoid about it. You can’t tame it. You just close your eyes and ‘use the force’. Do the best you can at the start of the season, and know we’ll fix it by the middle and end with guys who weren’t even a thought in August during your redrafts…because there’s always options as they all get injured, COVID, stuck behind broken O-Lines, have 3rd-stringers come in due to injury and outperform the original NFL starters in September. You need an RBBC not CMC.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = No truer words were ever spoken about the FFM 2021 FF season. If I don't out-draft them in the preseason, I'll out-maneuver them in-season. Fantasy Football is not a draft and go to sleep event...nor is it a 'read an article on Tuesday night for Tuesday night waivers' and then check in again on Sunday morning ESPN TV for sit-start help...winning FF is an everyday, every hour of the day move and countermove war. If you don't put in the time, someone else in your league will. Fantasy is a war of time/persistence and information. There is no magic formula to put your team on autopilot.

Secondly, remember this Justin Jackson event at just the right time for many of your teams. One of the most critical events of 2021 was this JJax week.

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 -- Hell, you could even get a big week out of Rex bygawd Burkhead (22-149-2, 2-0-0/2). Did I mention how bad the Chargers run defense is? Houston has not been able to take advantage of any good matchups all season with an F- minus (by us) graded O-Line. Except here, the RB group combined for 35 carries for 190 yards and a 5.3 ypc clip.

Javonte Williams will have a field day against them in Week 17.

You don’t even need an RBBC or CMC…you just need to have your RB with matchups against L-A-C.

…or Houston.

I would not trust Rex is going to do a repeat of this output against SF this week.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Rex had 16 carries for 47 yards in a dud the following week. But Javonte also had a dud...16 carries for 30 yards against this terrible LAC run defense. LAC bounced back hard off this embarrassing, season crushing loss and smoked Denver the following week.‍

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 -- Three starts in a row for Davis Mills (21-27 for 254 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) since taking the starting job from Tyrod Taylor. In that span, he’s posted a (2-1) record with 5 TDs/1 INT. Mills v. SF Week 17 isn’t a terrible matchup.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Mills had a 'meh' game Week 16 v. SF, but then another nice one Week 18 for a 9 TD/2 INT finish over his final 5 games of the 2021 season.

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 -- Josh Palmer (5-42-1/6) had a so-so game here, salvaged by a late garbage-time TD. However, the tape of him…the simple plays he made, the movement after the catch…it’s stunning the Chargers aren’t starting him and getting him the ball. However, seeing what the LAC staff has done with decisions all year…it’s actually not stunning at all.

Palmer + Herbert into the future is going to be a good thing. Just not reliable Week 17 with Big Mike and Guyton back.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Palmer + Herbert has the potential to pop, but it might not be until 2023...

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 -- Side note…you wanna know how bad this loss was? Houston crushed LAC without three of their best defenders (Greenard-Grugier-Hill-Lopez) active (out with COVID).

This loss and the Bills loss to Jacksonville are the ugliest losses of 2021…and this one may take the cake with the COVID inactives for Houston.

 *2022 JUNE NOTE = I forgot about this factoid. I just lost more confidence in Staley a bit more than I had three sections ago...

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Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = Palmer

55 = Keenan

45 = Jason Moore

39 = J Cook

22 = Stv Anderson

15 = McKitty

42 = Rex B

24 = Royce Freeman

01 = Jaylen Samuels

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*I penned this piece for 2018 undecideds/newbies to Fantasy Football Metrics, but I thought I would also share it again in 2021 for all to consider just in case any veteran FFM'ers have been wrestling with this...because every mock I do, it's an 'F' so far, which is AWESOME news. They're still not onto us!!!

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RE-POST of 2018 piece...

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Fantasy Football Mock Draft Grade of ‘F’ ? It is Exactly What I’m Shooting For…

I had a person, very genuinely, email me this past week asking what they were doing wrong in their practice Mock Drafts on various sites…or (what they were really worried about) was it that our player projections and valuations are so far off that they had made a mistake in becoming a new customer this year?

I was taken aback, but then I realized I better put out a quick message for any of the new clients and customers we have this year. I’m used to all this stuff, but FFM freshman can get rattled.

I’m so used to seeing ‘Ds’ and ‘Fs’ in my practice Mock Drafts working with clients ahead of draft day for years that it doesn’t even register with me. In fact, if I don’t see a ‘D’ or ‘F’ I know something went horribly wrong with my draft plan.

My company has been in business for about a decade now doing draft guide projections and analyzing redraft strategy – and using it in all kinds of practice Mock Drafts and then going forth into the real draft with the same game plan. We’ve built a pretty successful business based on repeating customer 'real' success in fantasy.

However, we are not guaranteeing victory at every turn. We’re not squawking like fools with ‘dominate the competition’ B.S. chatter.

We have a different style of scouting and fantasy player valuations – different than anything you’ll find in the mainstream or elsewhere. So radical, sometimes, that new readers and clients worry because it’s such a different ‘poker or chess game’ we’re playing that something must be wrong; it can’t be right what we’re proposing to do or valuing on players. The famous words I often here from people writing us off two paragraphs into something I write – ‘well, no one else is saying that’.

This business was built and is growing because we do and say ‘what no one else is saying’ (but in the end we better be 'right' a lot...and we are).

Whether you use Fantasy Football Metrics as part of your fantasy/draft planning or you don’t, let me share one piece of advice – if you’re doing scouting and draft strategy like everybody else…you’re in trouble. You’ve created a very narrow path to Fantasy victory driving in the same flawed, tired lane as the mainstream. My long-time clients pray your Mock Draft trials are graded ‘As’ and ‘Bs’, and you are then emboldened to stay on that course -- we’re counting on it because we know how to play you and everyone else like you.

If you take solace in what the football intelligentsia is all parroting each other on, then I guarantee you’re going to hate our writing, projections, scouting and analysis. You shouldn’t subscribe if you trust the echo chamber just because they are ex-players or ex-coaches -- because even if you read and like our material…you’re going to ‘chicken out’ and abandon the radical path to fall into the loving, quiet-death arms of the ‘generally accepted’ way to evaluate players and where/what rounds it’s acceptable to draft them in for fantasy.

If you try to follow Fantasy Football Metrics’ scouting and strategies, I cannot guarantee you’ll win every league. It’s not a magic wand. All I can guarantee is that YOU will be laughed at and mocked at in your draft when a wise-ass know-it-all (who knows nothing but the echoes from the echo chamber) weighs in on ‘what you should have done…’ or ‘no one takes that guy there’.

I would also guarantee this – over time, and usually into year one of the regular season of using Fantasy Football Metrics scouting, you’re going to leave people stuttering and stammering ‘how did they know that player so far ahead of everybody?’ In a year or two or three, in the same leagues, that confusion from your league mates is going to turn to fear – when you’re interested in a player, then people take notice of that player. When you propose trades, they get scared to deal with you – scared of what you must know that they don’t.

My legacy building FFM…while I love hearing about the titles people win, I more love the perpetual fear and respect our clients get from league mates with their creative, visionary drafts, trades, waiver wire moves, etc. -- a la the effect Bill Belichick tends to have on the other NFL teams.  

The road to becoming the most notorious football mind in your league’s redraft and dynasty rookie drafts, etc., begins with a giant ‘F’ (or a ‘D’) in your preseason Mock Drafts…and people criticizing you because they're so smart with their ESPN subscription. Learn to love the initial mocking at the start of your FFM mindset maneuvering (and some on-going mocking...because some people never break away from their institutionalization). In time, you will be the notorious football personnel mind in your league. That doesn’t mean you win every year, because sometimes David Johnson breaks a wrist in Week 1 and Aaron Rodgers breaks a collarbone a few weeks in (damn you 2017!). I don’t guarantee you non-stop titles, although you’ll get your more-than-fair share – I will guarantee you becoming the most notorious feared personnel mind in your league.

Or, just keep trying to do what everyone else is doing and trying to out-do them at it.

Your call.

I’m R.C. Fischer, and I think I can assist you in fantasy personnel studies. Let’s get ‘Fs’ in Mock Drafts together this year!

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Our Fantasy Football Draft Guide Package of projections and reports is now available. See our home page at for how to receive your subscription.

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FFM/CFM Daily Summary...July 5, 2022/Tuesday

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Items posted so far today...  

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-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): EDGE Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame

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-- NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report: RB Brian Robinson, Alabama

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-- 2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Chiefs 34, Chargers 28

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-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama

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-- Video Q&A tonight 9-10pmET+

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*Watch or Listen to the Tuesday Night Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available after the show closes on Tuesday night.*

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*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*

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======================================================================

*The 2022 FFM Draft Guide Package and In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*

Our annual Draft Guide package will be available for early signup June 7th starting at noon.

-Our Draft Guide program goes from June-to-Sept. kickoff -- constantly updating our computer model’s top 600 offensive player and top 500+ IDP rankings/valuations with 400+ player commentaries on their outlook/schedule/depth chart and more analyzed through a variety of scoring systems.

-As always, our popular market reports… Our ever-updating all preseason Overvalued and Undervalued player value reports -- a ranking and commentary on the greatest bargains or player-avoids for the upcoming redraft, best ball, etc., season.

-We’ve added a new report to the Draft Guide package this year – The Freakshow report…highlighting and discussing some players to consider who defy ADPs (and logic sometimes). Several late redraft and best ball grabs discussed – we rank them and have commentary on their freakiness/value. A few obvious names, and some players way off-the-grid.

-All our usual reports and rankings plus special access to all our other special reports, insider intel, and a host of other tools and materials.

-You can sign up for our In-season coverage and rankings/analysis at the same time…for a combo price/discount.

In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.

-Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription is still available, as well as our College Football Metrics subscription focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.

========================================================================

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2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Chiefs 34, Chargers 28

When I think of this game, what I’ll remember the most is…heading into the 4th-quarter it was 14-13 LAC leading, an offensive slog with Mahomes without a TD and the Chargers having failed about 100 times in goal-to-go situations – it all seemed FF-lost for the heavily-invested-in-KC/LAC-things FFM cult. What was I going to need to write going into the weekend to keep all our FF-spirits up?

There’s nothing worse, in my world, then a KC dud on TNF for everyone to bemoan for 72 hours until the next kickoff…using the hours to re-do their entire Fantasy Football plan from the August 2021 draft to their future business plan created for 2022, a plan to never include any Chiefs ever again because they all have been figured out or misused or whatever is thought in frustration watching the KC dullness happen with you own two eyes on a spotlight night game.

That’s Fantasy Football…we love all ‘the possibilities’ in our planning and the perfect storm re-do redrafts we imagine in our minds, but then watching the live action of our plans play out like we’re being taken to go in front of a firing squad. I wish we could more enjoy the beauty of the everchanging game we get to participate in…for ‘fun’. Maybe the fun is the torture of it all? It kinda seems to be that way, actually :)

We didn’t have to wait long for the beauty to arrive to save us from our torture rack, for those with the KC guys, as the final 10 minutes of regulation got us an offensive/FF explosion and the extra blessing of overtime/more football to add more to the tallies. Three quarters of a defensive struggle with 27 total points scored between the two teams and fullback Michael Burton as KC’s FF star of the night…to suddenly a twist to 35 points scored in about a quarter+ of play to the finish with the KC guys having some of their best game outputs of the season.

You have to love Fantasy Football when it goes like this on a Thursday night…love it at least for 72 hours, then you can go back to complaining about all the letdowns from the Sunday guys not being as good as your KC guys. It’s the nature of this FF-game…

What looked like LAC getting ready to take over the AFC West for now, and forever…slipped right through their hands and sent them reeling to the wild card chase. I absolutely 100% agree with every Brandon Staley call to go for TDs and not field goals throughout that game, when faced with the decision. You play for TDs when you face a team like KC for the very reason of what happened…KC can look stupid for three quarters and then blow your doors off in a 10-minute span.

To the media, or fans, who love to shout ‘analytics’ every time a team goes for a TD/1st-down on 4th-down instead of a field goal…please stop. You have no idea what you are talking about. You shouldn’t need a Harvard grad student with a MacBook Air to tell you that you need to score TDs not FGs against Patrick Mahomes (or any other elite offenses). It should be a given, but the media (and fans) are so conditioned to playing the game in an antiquated way we were raised…that they cannot handle such simple logic/strategy. And the fans are worse, because they live to watch their favorite team lose games and complain about how they would have done everything different in all the 50-50 choices…just like us FF owners do week-to-week.

You either play to win or you play not to lose…in the NFL…in Fantasy…in life. I like playing to win, knowing I might lose. I’m not putting my lifesavings on one hand of blackjack…I’m not saying we all be stupid risk takers – but I’m more thinking in the sense that (back in my heyday) I wanted the basketball in my hands down one with 5 seconds left in the game. Missing the game winning shot and then rehashing my entire reason for ever playing the game for the next 24 hours/week/month/year is not productive and doesn’t solve anything. I should be counting down the days until I get my next chance to do so again. We have to make those 50-50 calls for sit-starts every week with our Fantasy teams...we take our best shot and if we miss, we comeback next week on the attack again. Brandon Staley went for the kill, and he missed…the offense didn’t convert many golden opportunities. They will learn from this…they will build up scar tissue from this for the next time.

I assume there will be a next time. Staley’s young coaching career is at a crossroads from all the second-guessing this week he’s faced – will he chicken out the next time he’s in the same position, or will he establish that he will go for wins despite the media and fans crying? FYI, nothing you can do as an NFL head coach will stop the media and fans from complaining. As soon as you win a Super Bowl, the media and fans are already creating a top five list the next day on reasons why you won’t repeat.

The Chargers fall to (8-6) and are in a good spot still for the wild card. 10 wins should be an easy ticket to the playoffs, and LAC should get there…as LAC faces Houston this week (although after watching Week 15 kings Arizona and Tampa Bay go down to inferior teams…who knows?) and likely gets the win…and then they need to win one of their last two hosting DEN or at LV. They can also sweep the rest of the season, they’ll be favored to, but at a minimum they should get to 10 wins and the wild card.

The Chiefs won at just the right time, they are now (10-4)…the only 10 win team in the AFC, with their nearest competitors all losing this week (NE and TEN). KC is set to win at least 12 games and take the #1 seed.  

*2022 JUNE NOTES = How fast everything can change in the NFL. This game was a total dud for three quarters and then an epic finish led to some of the best FF tallies of the season for various players...just at the right time, entering the FF playoffs.

When it appeared LAC had the schedule, and the team, to win 2-3 of their next three...they lost to lowly Houston the very next week and then lost the do-or-die game to Las Vegas Week 18. What should've been a dangerous playoff team was bounced from the playoffs from here on in.

On the other hand, KC was set to run to the #1 seed...but then 'Cincinnati happened' and knocked KC from the #1 seed and then from the playoffs a few weeks later. No one saw that coming the date this game ended/this report was written.

You gotta love football.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First off, I have to say ‘thank you’ to Patrick Mahomes (31-47 for 410 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 3-32-0) and Tyreek Hill (12-148-1/13) for helping get FFMers, many of whom have one or both, off to a great start for the FF week.

2021 has been the most erratic run with this duo in the years of having them together. Mahomes had fallen out of the top 5 PPG Fantasy scoring QBs this season with a real rough stretch for the last several weeks, and Tyreek was mostly with him in those FF-doldrums. But one of the reasons we push for those two guys for FF every year we can – they have more of ‘these’ types of games than any FF QB-WR duo over the past few years…weeks where they almost single handedly get an entire FF team over.

For three quarters, it didn’t look that way. For most of the last 5-6 games worth of ‘quarters’ it hasn’t looked very good. Something is still wrong here with the KC offense…I know it is because I’ve been so heavily vested in/observing it the past few years. But, with these guys you just shove the chips in and hope they kick into gear at this stage of the FF season. They did in the 4th-quarter here. Still not totally in the clear ahead, but there’s always hope that there is…and that’s all you can ask.

My apologies to…

a) The FF teams where I thought Kyler v. DET was more logical than Mahomes here. Some Dynasty teams have this duo/option and given the choice everything seemed obvious for Kyler…until Week 15 showed nothing in football is obvious.

if you thought Kyler was bad...check out Tom Brady's week.

b) Travis Kelce (10-191-2/13), of whom I told Ross Jacobs in-game that Kelce keeps looking old to me and he was really dying in this game, so I made fun of him (and Ross has him on a key FF team of his) but then the 4th-quarter magic hit, and Kelce took a swig from the fountain of youth and suddenly is out-running every player on the field. Glad I could reverse jinx him into 41+ PPR points.

…still, Kelce does look like age is catching up to him. Everything about Mahomes-Tyreek looks normal (physically) this year, just not connecting as well. But Kelce looks like he is slowing down…and that might be a part of Mahomes issue the past two months. But that old magic was there late this game…maybe it carries over the next few weeks.

 -- Justin Herbert (22-38 for 236 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 5-16-1) looked better than Mahomes most of this game, and he looks like the QB of the future between the two. If Jared Cook could catch, this game might have been a whole lot different on the perception we walk away with.

I think Herbert’s main issue is his offensive coordinator – he’s the one who has pushed Jared Cook (3-32-0/7) when Donald Parham (0-0-0/1) is a much better, more dangerous mismatch weapon in the passing game. The O-C’s the one who keeps calling for useless end zone fades and stupid goal line quick passes in traffic to Mike Williams that come in so hot he never catches them, then gets blown up by the defender going into the soup when he does, and the ball pops off his hands and into the air risking turnover…I’ve seen them run that play near the goal line probably 7-8 times this year, and I cannot recall one time it hitting for a TD…but they keep running it.

My vast football opinion: If they simply put Joshua Palmer (1-15-0/1) in the starting rotation with Keenan-Big Mike and then more Parham than Cook…this offense would be loaded with unique weapons. The Chargers are being suppressed from within…by the O-C. You wonder why LAC could fail so many times near the goal line…it’s not because Herbert isn’t an elite weapon. If anything cost LAC this game, this season…it’s the O-C Joe Lombardi. It’s so cool that he’s related to Vince Lombardi…who is probably rolling over in his grave at the dreadfulness of this offensive plan/attack.

You have to do some pretty good coaching to make a Justin Herbert-led offense stumble around so much and not get better as they go. *See, also: Eric Bieniemy, Kansas City (2020-2021).

*2022 JUNE NOTES = I am telling you Jared Cook was a big part of the LAC self-inflicted wound on offense. He likely cost them this game with a key drop for a TD (lost). But O-C Joe Lombardi was worse...and he's back for 2022...sigh...

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 -- Speaking of Big Mike Williams (3-49-0/9)… In most cases, you just have to stick with him. He’s too good to bench. Flyers on like a Courtland Sutton type Flex shot are true long shot bets that the previously great WR can have a moment again…but it’s been so bad, and his QB so down that it’s a real uphill battle. Big Mike with Herbert playing indoors a lot in December…it could hit big at any moment, and they’ve had some huge ‘highs’ this season together…which makes the mediocre games feel more frustrating. We know what they’re capable of.

Jaylen Guyton (2-10-1/2) has a string of three weeks in-a-row with a TD but look at the targets during that stretch: 4-3-2. One of the games with Keenan Allen out with COVID, and he mustered 3 targets. It’s FF-something that he exists with Herbert, but Joshua Palmer is coming on fast to share in those limited targets. Guyton is a risky play, but hopeful a TD falls his way…especially hopeful at HOU this week.  

*2022 JUNE NOTES = Big Mike got COVID the next week, and missed the game...a LAC loss to HOU. The final two games of their season, he averaged 6.0 rec. (10.5 targets), 91.0 yards, and 1.0 TDs per game...15.1 FF PPG/21.1 PPR PPG. A nice finish after a terrible middle of the season and wonderful start to his season. I really don't know which Big Mike we get in 2022.

The set up is for 'success'.

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 -- Justin Jackson (13-86-0, 1-13-0/1) was the best RB on the field in this game. In many key spots in this game, Jackson was in and not Austin Ekeler (12-59-1, 4-23-0/4)…which Ekeler was hurt going in, but he was playing and working fine, but I think JJax got so hot that they stuck with him in spots.

Ekeler starts Week 16 with COVID, but with the new rules he’ll likely be clear by Sunday. If he is not, Jackson will be an RB1 this week.

Outside of the COVID situation, Jackson has at least established that he is the proper handcuff for those with Ekeler…but you might not get to him now with Ekeler having COVID – everyone will be coming after JJax, where he is still available.

 -- Jackson sure looked better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire (9-32-0, 2-18-0/4)…talk about a perpetual dud.

Here’s how bad this was: The Chargers are notorious for their issues stopping the run, and while the KC passing game floundered for three quarters, the Chiefs could not get CEH going…nor did they seem that interested in doing so, one or the other. All kinds of RBs have mowed over the LAC run defense…but not CEH in the most critical of moments for him to do so.

CEH has played 9 games this season…

-In seven of the 9 games he has rushed for 63 or fewer yards.

-In five of the 9 games he has rushed for less than 50 yards.

-The supposed master pass catcher out of the backfield has caught no more than 3 passes in a game all season and never eclipsed 30 yards receiving this season in any game. Darrel Williams has 30 or more yards receiving in a game five times this season.

I will maintain my stance that the Chiefs are better off with Darrel Williams (5-12-0, 0-0-0/1)…and he’s not all that great either. In games where Williams has taken 10 or more carries in a game, the Chiefs are (5-0)…and (5-4) in all the other games – which is just a quirky stat, I don’t believe Williams is the end-all-be-all.

*2022 JUNE NOTES = The CEH clock is ticking...if he comes out of the gates slow this season, he'll be split up by RoJo-McKinnon and then just be a rotational, forgotten RB. He needs a fast start, and I'm not sure he's going to be able to get it.

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 -- Credit the Chargers-DST for flustering KC’s offense for about the first 53 minutes of this game. This LAC defense has some potential. They squashed NYG the prior week, but then gave up garbage late/the last 4 minutes of the blowout. This defense is trying to peek through…

Week 16 at HOU and Week 17 v. DEN are hopeful DST options, as I’ve been pushing for a month+. It’s not perfect, but it’s something.

*2022 JUNE NOTES = The LAC defense had so many 'flash' moments, but always flopped in the end. This game was another example. Next week, Houston is going to bury them.

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 -- The KC defense came up big on those goal line stands and facing LAC’s offense isn’t a favorable matchup because Herbert can make lemonade out of the O-C’s playbook. You can use the KC-DST with confidence against PIT Week 16 and with some confidence Week 17 at CIN.

Nick Bolton (14 tackles, 3 PDs) was a machine in this game for KC, a difference maker…which he was to start the season but then they benched him for struggles in pass coverage – they found out that he has other gifts to bring to a defense that they should utilize in this game. I don’t think he’ll be benched any more, but with KC/NFL coaches in general…you never know what’s going through their minds. They love things that don’t work and hate unplanned things that do work.

*2022 JUNE NOTES = Bolton played about 50% of the snaps in each game the rest of the season, including their playoff games.

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Snap Counts of Interest:

65 = Mike Williams

62 = Kennan Allen

33 = Palmer

28 = Guyton

43 = J Jackson

27 = Ekeler

13 = J Kelley

60 = Tyreek

49 = D Robinson

46 = Pringle

31 = Hardman (this puppy is about over)

51 = CEH

21 = D Williams

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

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FFM/CFM Daily Summary...July 4, 2022/Monday (Happy Independence Day!!)

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Items posted so far today...  

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-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB K.J. Jefferson, Arkansas

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-- 2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chargers 37, Giants 21

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-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB Tyler Van Dyke, Miami

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-- 2022 New Hire NFL Head Coach Analysis #1: Mike McDaniel, Miami

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*Our summer Devy series begins July 1st and two-a-days Devy reports runs throughout July.

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*Watch or Listen to the Tuesday Night Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available after the show closes on Tuesday night.*

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*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*

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*The 2022 FFM Draft Guide Package and In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*

Our annual Draft Guide package will be available for early signup June 7th starting at noon.

-Our Draft Guide program goes from June-to-Sept. kickoff -- constantly updating our computer model’s top 600 offensive player and top 500+ IDP rankings/valuations with 400+ player commentaries on their outlook/schedule/depth chart and more analyzed through a variety of scoring systems.

-As always, our popular market reports… Our ever-updating all preseason Overvalued and Undervalued player value reports -- a ranking and commentary on the greatest bargains or player-avoids for the upcoming redraft, best ball, etc., season.

-We’ve added a new report to the Draft Guide package this year – The Freakshow report…highlighting and discussing some players to consider who defy ADPs (and logic sometimes). Several late redraft and best ball grabs discussed – we rank them and have commentary on their freakiness/value. A few obvious names, and some players way off-the-grid.

-All our usual reports and rankings plus special access to all our other special reports, insider intel, and a host of other tools and materials.

-You can sign up for our In-season coverage and rankings/analysis at the same time…for a combo price/discount.

In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.

-Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription is still available, as well as our College Football Metrics subscription focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.

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2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chargers 37, Giants 21

24-7 LAC at halftime.

37-7 LAC with 4+ minutes remaining.

But then some garbage, a botched onside kick recovery…and suddenly it’s 37-21 with 1+ minute left and NYG driving. LAC buckled down and shut NYG down and got out of there with a 16-point win that was more like a 50+ point win turned into a 16-point affair via end of game malaise. It was never really close. NYG is a defeated group – still trying on defense but no offense at all.

The Chargers are now (8-5), and they are still only going as far as Justin Herbert takes them, because otherwise this team has a ton of holes. I’d love to see them solidify/gel and beatdown KC Week 15, but we’ll see. KC has the experience…but a ton of holes themselves. The Chargers are pretty locked for 9 wins, more likely 10 wins by season end, with a shot at winning out for 11-12 wins and an AFC West title. We project 10 wins because they’ve been sloppier than KC this season. LAC is headed to the playoffs either way.

The Giants (4-9) are not headed to the playoffs and are now entering a phase where they will be subject to incessant rumors on a coaching and GM change. I’ve mentioned it a few times – they should stick with this management team at least one more season. Injury and bad luck have doomed them as much as anything. They have a good core…they just need a real QB. NYG will finish with 5-6 wins and who knows what coach in 2022.  

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Well, NYG did ditch their entire staff...another rebuild underway.

Really, re-reading this, I can't help but think how many times (during this LAC series) that my theme, when I wrote up the analysis, was LAC looking good, on the verge of a win or a blowout...but then something happens to hold them back. So many time last year the Chargers were showing greatness...and then they'd figuratively fumble it away.

In 2022, the LAC offense is intact/improved and the defense is VASTLY improved. Everything is there for the Chargers to kick arse in 2022. They should be the predominant AFC West favorites and legit Super Bowl opportunist.

Why do I feel like Joe Burrow is not going to ever let them fulfill their destiny/promise?

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Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The big question from this game for Week 15 is – is Austin Ekeler (12-67-1, 2-170/4) going to play, and if not…who is taking his touches?

My guess, right at this moment, is that Ekeler will play and be fine. Brandon Staley has said Ekeler could have gone back in Week 14 if needed. I buy that…this game was so far out of hand it was easy to pull Ekeler off the field and keep him safe in the 2nd-half.

If Ekeler is a scratch for TNF Week 15, it seems clear to me that Justin Jackson (9-35-0, 1-7-0/1) is the guy they would trust in the Ekeler role, and he’d take a 70/30 or better share splitting with Joshua Kelley (10-33-0, 1-5-0/1).

When this was still a game, JJax was in taking relief/split touches with Ekeler. Kelley didn’t really get his work in until later when this was getting out of hand.

Jackson could be an RB1-2 projection for Week 15 with Ekeler out of the way. I just don’t believe it will happen that Ekeler is out.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Our Justin Jackson call was a Week 16 savior move (not Week 15). Ekeler was still hobbled Week 15, and Jackson had an OK game...we didn't go hard starting JJax Week 15...it was Week 16 with Ekeler out that we went 'all-in' and JJax had 8 catches, 160+ total yards and 2 TDs.

Where is JJax now? Still a free agent/no one has inked him yet. Not good for him. He could go back with LAC as a #3...he should.

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 -- No Keenan Allen (DNP-COVID) gave us a good dose of/preview of Josh Palmer (5-66-1/7)…and we now see he belongs. He’s like if you took Keenan and Mike Williams and mashed them together – good-to-great hands and physical, not a blazer/speedster and just normal height for a WR.

Palmer was a debated prospect going into the 2021 NFL Draft – was he athletic enough to matter in the bigs? He’s not speedy, but he’s a good football playing WR. He may allow LAC to just let Williams go in free agency 2022.

Speaking of Big Mike (6-61-0/6)…once again the best-looking (eye appeal) WR on the field in this game/in the NFL…and just a ho hum FF result. Big Mike is becoming the Kyle Pitts of WRs. He gets all the defensive attention, so Herbert just smokes the defense with all his other options – which is great for the NFL, sucks for Big Mike for FF.

Jaylen Guyton (3-87-1/3) has back-to-back weeks with a TD. My knee-jerk reaction is…he’s not very good, so I’m looking past him -- but my reaction now should be/will be…it’s good to be the #3 WR working with Justin Herbert. Anyone on the field with Herbert has FF hope. Guyton might be becoming Marquez Valdes-Scantling west coast edition.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Palmer starting as the #3 WR in 2022 would give Herbert a hell of a talented trio. I think he will start, but I'm not 100% sure...so much Jalen Guyton bluster.

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 -- Justin Herbert (23-31 for 275 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) is starting to play lights out again…playing like 2020 where despite all the other issues (lack of blocking, unimaginative play calling, a weak run game) Herbert just out-talents the obstacles and gives the team a chance to win. He was so low-key great here.  

Herbert is now #3 in FF PPG and #2 in total yardage among QBs, less than a hundred behind Tom Brady.

My mind says KC beats LAC on TNF this week, but Herbert there makes me think they got a chance to take the mantle of best team in the AFC West…and best QB in the AFC away from KC Week 15.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = LAC had KC in the palm of their hands...and like all 2021, they let them off the hook...and LAC got beat and their season tanked from there.

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 -- And then there was Mike Glennon (17-36 for 191 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…the anti-Herbert…

Actually, he’s not playing terribly…it’s just this offense, this team is so miserable, and the receivers drop so many passes. I’ll just note, for time sake, that every receiver related to Glennon is not worth your time in FF.

Sterling Shepard (2-27-0/4) is only a thing with Dan Dimes.

Kadarius Toney (DNP) could be something, but I’d guess this offense, this whole team vibe is going to put a lid on anything Toney could do…if he ever returns to action.

 -- I’ve been bragging about the LAC-DST and this finishing schedule (Week 14, and 16-17). Well, we almost got a gem here…only 7 points allowed with 4 minutes left…then a bunch of bullshit happened/they laid down just trying to get out of there.

The Chargers are an average defense…it’s just playing against garbage offenses puts them on the DST map. Week 16-17 v. HOU-DEN should…SHOULD…be good but you’ll hold your breath. Having lost Derwin James (COVID) right before this game did not help matters here. He’ll be back for TNF.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Such a beautiful FF game from the LAC DST...wasted in the final 3 minutes of football follies/just trying to end the game. Story of the 2021 LAC DST...they'd always find a way to ruin a good thing.

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Snap Counts of Interest:

33 = Ekeler

20 = JJax

19 = Kelley

62 = Palmer

59 = Mike Williams

42 = Guyton

33 = McKitty

31 = Cook

29 = Parham

38 = Barkley

28 = Booker

2022 New Hire NFL Head Coach Analysis #1: Mike McDaniel, Miami

I need to address two things at the top, and I’ll probably copy and paste this into every intro ahead of the new hire coaching analysis for 2022…

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1: Why are your (RC’s) famous coaching studies just now starting (July 2022)? You usually do them in Jan.-Feb.-Mar.?

I used to be excited to jump right on these studies but the longer I research and study the NFL, as it relates to Fantasy Football, the new head coach is not as big a factor as I thought it once was. I do some base research right away, when they are hired, to identify trends/patterns in their (and their staff’s) history on offense especially -- but a full research report, as I have done for years, I am arriving at a belief that it just isn’t as important as player scouting and study, so I put it off until I had the time to work on it…so, he we are.

It's a definite, purposeful lack of priority as to why I’m starting the deeper reports in the summer.

2: Why do I (RC) think the new head coaching hires are not as important as they once were?

After years and years of NFL study and observation, I’ve come to the most simple/obvious conclusion about a new (or any) NFL head coach importance to team wins/performance: Tell me who their quarterback is, and I’ll tell you how ‘good’ a coach they’re gonna be this season/ahead.

All my years of NFL observation, all I see is coaching failure and nonsense from the top (head coach)…out of touch philosophies, fighting with the GM, strange decisions for their starting lineups, and inability to manage a salary cap or construct a roster. Now, they do know how to do the ‘job’ of coaching…they know playbooks, weight rooms, stretching, dumb/cliché filled speeches, dress codes for road trips, practice schedules, blowing a whistle, coach speak press conferences, play calling from the playbook…they know how to perform the job of ‘coach’, but ‘difference makers’? Legends? Geniuses? Name one.

Ask yourself, if head coaches are so smart and such great communicators and understand the game so well…why are ex-quarterbacks getting tens of millions of dollars to analyze the game on TV, and not ex-NFL head coaches? Have you listened to the Bruce Arians, or Jeff Fisher, or Brian Billick, or any of the ex-coaches try and call a game…or even host a pregame show or something like it? Useless. Ex-quarterbacks in the booth are always natural and detailed and understand what they are seeing and can communicate it. Ex-head coaches…well, there’s Rex Ryan as a nonsensical sideshow on a dying media company’s pregame show. Steve Mariucci? Are you kidding me?

We all thought we had Bill Belichick to look up to, but then we saw how he handled the Tom Brady situation and how he wanted rid of Tom, and how he’s fared since Tom (and how Tom has fared without him). Who has been a better coach in the NFL? Bill Belichick or Bruce Arians? Answer = the one possessed Tom Brady, that’s who.

There are better coaches than others, for sure…but it’s more ‘least damaging to things’ is better than ‘very damaging to things’. They do know how to swing a whistle on a string around their finger and bark nonsense while the players stretch out pregame/practice.

In the end, this following statement is going to make you deny it…and then when you think about it, you’ll agree…and then it is sobering (for coaches): the location/geography, the weather, the stadium, the surrounding city, and the tax ramifications of that area/state are more important in attracting and keeping players than ‘head coach’.

A head coach has one main characteristic they MUST possess…don’t piss off the elite quarterback/you must befriend the elite quarterback.

Football fans are always so religious in their faith and defense of and promotion of their team’s new head coach -- it boggles my mind. People believe in a new hire head coach, likely a guy they may have never heard of before they entered the interview cycle/media cycle, with more rigor than church goers believe in God on Sundays. You can have hope in your new head coach for your favorite team, but these coaches are mere mortals, and most doomed-to-fail (and these adoring fans will turn on them within two years of their hire)…and many of these new head coaches were not the first or even third-fourth-fifth choices during the interview process, but when these coaches land on ‘your’ team then the making-them-into-a-god process by the media…and thus the sheep/fans go right along for the ride.

So, what do I think about Mike McDaniel’s coaching ability for the Miami Dolphins? I dunno…tell me who his QB is.

For McDaniel, that QB is Tua Tagovailoa…one of the 5-10 worst QBs in the NFL. A guy who probably won’t be a starting NFL QB in another year or two – so, Mike McDaniel is not likely to be successful for Miami, as long as he has Tua. What if they make a QB change? I dunno…tell me who his new QB will be, and I’ll tell you if McDaniel will be a good head coach in the future.

That’s the short answer. Now, let me get to the long/RC answer and background…

I’m going to boil all my research of McDaniel’s background into some simple broad bullet points…and when I do, if you buy them, then you won’t be all that impressed.

 -- College WR at Yale, History major at Yale…and that’s impressive to those who value judging someone on where someone went to school vs. their actual real self and talents. But it’s fair that Yale is more impressive than a local Community College grad…but some of the NFL’s worst coaching minds are Ivy leaguers (like Jason Garrett). Ivy League = football coaching success is not really ‘bankable’.

 -- Started as an intern with Denver, with Mike Shanahan (and thus a relationship with Kyle Shanahan), in 2005.

 -- A year later, McDaniel went to the Texans as an offensive assistant…for three years…all the time/working with Kyle Shanahan.

 -- Left Houston to go be a running back coach in the UFL for the California Redwoods (2009-2010). I $#!& you not.

How a Yale educated person could leave the NFL ladder he was climbing for a low-level position in the UFL is astoundingly stupid, but it happened.

 -- 2011 back to the NFL as an offensive assistant for…you guessed it…Washington, back with the Shanahan’s. Since 2011, McDaniel has basically followed Kyle Shanahan around as an assistant grunt, not a big-time assistant.

McDaniel became the run game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan in SF from 2017-2020, before becoming the O-C for San Fran in 2021…coordinating the 13th ranked offense in the NFL. But Kyle Shanahan is really the play caller/shot caller and McDaniel just a lackey carrying the water, essentially. I have to put it in those crude terms, so we get the feel for his background to become an NFL head coach.

McDaniel’s #1 attribute to become an NFL head coach was, to me, ‘close friends with Kyle Shanahan; a dedicated employee’.

McDaniel also would have been part of the 2021 hive mind that scouted Trey Sermon…only to watch it fail year one. And who also (I assume) scouted Trey Lance…and Lance has had all these rumors/reports for two years that he isn’t adapting/progressing like they thought. Isn’t that, in some way, a McDaniel issue…from the scouting of, and to the coaching of, as he was the 49ers’ O-C in 2021? I’m just saying…just spitballing.

Miami’s owner tried to orchestrate a Sean Payton and Tom Brady pairing for 2021, and instead they got derailed on that plan and wound up with Mike McDaniel and another year of Tua. A big drop off, no? McDaniel wasn’t the main plan, in fact, he probably wouldn’t have been one of the first 3-6 choices, but Miami’s plans got derailed by Brian Flores’ lawsuit and they had to reach for someone late in the process…and thus Mike McDaniel. BUT he sure does say some funny things in press conferences! He’s a real knee-slapper!!

Mike McDaniel = not the team’s first 3+ choice/option to head coach, was a long-time friend/assistant to Kyle Shanahan, never been seriously mentioned as a hot coaching prospect for the bulk of his career, and he says some odd things at his press conferences – that’s the summary of the new savior of the always pathetically run (under Steven Ross) Miami Dolphins. But McDaniel is going to overcome all that and just ‘quirky press conference’ his way to Canton. OK. Sounds great.

In 2021, as O-C, McDaniel’s claim to fame is he ran the ball with Deebo a lot…starting about a half a season into the campaign they finally gave Deebo more carries, out of desperation due to injury and it worked so they stuck with it -- that somehow makes Mike McDaniel a genius. Good luck with all that.

Oh, and Tua is his QB…so, even more ‘good luck with all that’. And let’s talk about Tua for a moment, in relation to Mike McDaniel…

I have watched several press conferences with Mike McDaniel, and they are borderline brutal. The guy is supposed to be ‘funny’, and he does have dry wit…but not that much wit. Heavy on the dry, light on the wit. But any ounce of ‘wit’ from an NFL head coach (a collection of stiffs and goofs and out of touch with reality humans) is seen as the new Dave Chappelle…so McDaniel is getting made into something that I don’t really see. All his pressers are dull, to me. No passion. No master/impressive ‘plan’. No nothing. Just monotoned, half-stoned gratitude/disbelief he’s in the position he’s in. He promises everyone he’s gonna work really hard…the hardest. Wow, that’s fresh. Never heard that before.

To me, Mike McDaniel seems like your corporation’s IT guy who does a good job, is reliable, is pleasant enough to have a one-minute interaction with, but the Miami Dolphins grabbed that guy, that personality and pushed him to be the face of a billion-dollar business because he followed respected Kyle Shanahan around the NFL.

In the NFL, you’d like to have a leader who is either…

-A long-time successful coach from college or the NFL.

-A former NFL player, a respected player.

-A natural born leader of men type of personality.

-A physically imposing leader players won’t wanna cross if they can help it.

Mike McDaniel is none of these.

Mike McDaniel is smaller than most/all the league’s kickers and comes off as ‘half-stoned’ (to me) in his press interactions. The NFL has never really tried that approach with desired NFL head coaches…so who knows? Maybe it will work, and the IT departments of the NFL will be the hot bed of future head coaching candidates.

Back to Tua, I didn’t forget that this past section was supposed to be about Tua. Watch this 90+ second clip of Mike McDaniel calling Tua on his cell, on a private jet flight soon after getting hired…I mean really listen to the words McDaniel says and the cadence at which he is speaking, but mostly the words. The more I watched these 90 seconds over again…the more disbelief I was in. https://youtu.be/diSQlY3lpIU

Why did he allow his call to Tua be filmed? Because it was a charade. He likely thought it was brilliant, but then I question just how brilliant he is then…because he looks like, sounds like, and comes off as a naive middle management hack. I would never be filmed talking to my new players, and ESPECIALLY not the most important player in the franchise – the quarterback. And not even tell him upfront that the interaction was being filmed during the call.

Either McDaniel thought going to a team with Tua at the helm was brilliant, which then tells you all you need to know about his football scouting ability…or McDaniel was a desperate/fortunate opportunist who wasn’t going to get hired anywhere else but smartly pounced on an opportunity where Miami was desperate…and current quarterback be damned. He was smart to take the money and take a chance in Miami, because I don’t believe he’d be hired anywhere else as a top guy.

In conclusion, I did this McDaniel research piece as the first of all the new coaching hire studies/pieces because it seemed to be the most curious/odd one -- that I thought might be secretly clever in its unorthodoxy, but the more I dug into it, the more disbelief I was in that THIS GUY got a head coaching job. Not that he’s awful or anything, but is he one of the top 30…top 330 coaching minds and persona’s out there? But here he is. And, again, it’s all gonna be about the QB so his personality doesn’t really fully matter. I’m sure he’ll run the team, and its practices and meetings as well as all the other competent/organized employees or coaches of an NFL team. But it sure feels like this was not a brilliant move by Miami…which is ‘in character’ for them.

McDaniel’s coaching prospects will rise if he does one thing before August 1st…something I think is quite possible – and that is Miami works out a trade with his old employer, a basic trade with a renegotiated 3-year deal for Jimmy Garoppolo. If that happens, it lets me know – McDaniel is not a full idiot…he knows QB is everything and JG is better than Tua, especially for a team that did well in the offseason and is a QB away from being a legit playoff team. But if that doesn’t happen, it means McDaniel is currently the GM’s hand-picked lapdog to control, there to try and make sense out of the ridiculous Tua draft pick…because that GM would have been neutered/gone with the Payton/Brady plan and is likely to fall/get fired if Tua fails.

Fantasy impact:

Mike McDaniel worked extensively on run game coordination for Kyle Shanahan – the trusted assistant to plan the run game…like the employee good at planning out a big corporate meeting event – does that make said employee CEO material because they plan a slice of something well? You have to assume that McDaniel favors the run game…a lot…and you see he is collecting RBs like my dog hoards tennis balls around the house. If this isn’t an offense that is top 5-10 in rushing attempts per season, under McDaniel, I’ll be shocked…or they are down in games all the time and have to abandon the run for a flailing pass game comeback.

Take a guess who the pass game coordinator is that Mike McDaniel hired?

Think of some of the worst offensive coaches in the recent NFL…a guy who always fails but is always getting hired. I’ll answer it at the end.

I watched some interviews of McDaniel’s new O-C is Frank Smith, another low-key personality and someone who wasn’t on the tip of anyone’s tongues in the NFL prior, but to be fair McDaniel was hired late and had to scramble a staff together. Thus, a stretch hire of Smith late in the process…and McDaniel retained the existing Miami D-C.

McDaniel is low key and seems very non-confrontational, and so does his key staff have that ‘feel’…which may or may not work but feels like they could get pushed around. I’m early worrying that Tyreek Hill is going to be a problem for them…as Tyreek is more important than the staff and starts vocalizing issues, but the staff doesn’t believe that a player knows better…they never do. But with Wes Welker as the WR coach, who might/probably should be the head coach more than McDaniel, Wes might be able to keep Tyreek in check.

Tyreek should get the ball a lot because the entire staff and QB will be afraid of the outspoken mega star. If Jimmy Garoppolo comes in, he could change all that…it will be Jimmy G. effectively running the locker room and team by proxy for McDaniel, that’s why I think that could be coming soon…unless the GM tries to stop it because he’s tied to Tua…and the plan B is for Tua to fail in 2022 and Payton/Brady to ride into town in 2023.

I wonder if Miami’s ownership secretly hopes/knows this is set up for failure…and it needs to fail with Tua to usher in Payton/Brady.

Oh, and Miami’s passing game coordinator? The experienced, the always despised, always the back cat of bad luck in the NFL (wherever he is, the losses will continue) – Darrell Bevel. The guys in Seattle hated him so much during the Legion of Boom era that it broke the team up as player’s (on offense) wanted to leave to get away from him. Marshawn Lynch retired, in part, due to Bevell. But I’m sure it will be fine here.

Good luck to Mike McDaniel! Hope you’re renting, not buying a home in the area…

*Bevel’s NFL journey after he was run out of Seattle…

2019-2020 DET O-C for Matt Patricia, leading the #24 (2019) and #30 (2020) PPG offense in the NFL.

2021 JAX O-C for Urban Meyer, leading the #32 PPG offense in the NFL.

Matt Patricia and Urban Meyer are two of the worst head coaches to grace the NFL the past few years…and they were both impressed by Bevel. Now, Mike McDaniel is going down the Bevel road? Good luck with all that.

‍

‍

FFM/CFM Daily Summary...July 3, 2022/Sunday

‍

‍

Items posted so far today...  

‍

-- 2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Chargers 41, Bengals 22

‍

-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB Cameron Rising, Utah

‍

-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB Devin Leary, NC State

‍

-- 2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 11.0 (top 350 with IDP)

‍

*Our summer Devy series begins July 1st and two-a-days Devy reports runs throughout July.

‍

‍

‍

*Watch or Listen to the Tuesday Night Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available after the show closes on Tuesday night.*

‍

‍

‍

*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*

‍

‍

‍

======================================================================

*The 2022 FFM Draft Guide Package and In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*

Our annual Draft Guide package will be available for early signup June 7th starting at noon.

-Our Draft Guide program goes from June-to-Sept. kickoff -- constantly updating our computer model’s top 600 offensive player and top 500+ IDP rankings/valuations with 400+ player commentaries on their outlook/schedule/depth chart and more analyzed through a variety of scoring systems.

-As always, our popular market reports… Our ever-updating all preseason Overvalued and Undervalued player value reports -- a ranking and commentary on the greatest bargains or player-avoids for the upcoming redraft, best ball, etc., season.

-We’ve added a new report to the Draft Guide package this year – The Freakshow report…highlighting and discussing some players to consider who defy ADPs (and logic sometimes). Several late redraft and best ball grabs discussed – we rank them and have commentary on their freakiness/value. A few obvious names, and some players way off-the-grid.

-All our usual reports and rankings plus special access to all our other special reports, insider intel, and a host of other tools and materials.

-You can sign up for our In-season coverage and rankings/analysis at the same time…for a combo price/discount.

In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.

-Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription is still available, as well as our College Football Metrics subscription focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.

========================================================================

‍

‍

‍

‍

2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Chargers 41, Bengals 22

I’ve started re-reading back through my 2021 game reports looking for good and bad scouting instincts on things I might have lost track of, whether for Fantasy or just the team in general. I especially wanted to focus on the L.A. Chargers’ 2021 season…because my first computer simulation of the season showed them as the 2022 Super Bowl champs. From not making the playoffs in 2021 to the Super Bowl in 2022.

The Chargers didn’t change their coaching staff this offseason and they didn’t overhaul much of their offensive core, but they have dramatically boosted their defense this offseason. So, in theory, this team should be gelling and taking a step forward from a 9-win team last season to what I think will be a division winner and serious Super Bowl contender this season. At a minimum, it’s a playoff team (if Herbert stays healthy).

For some summer reading material, I’ll be looking back at my Chargers’ game reports from last season week-by-week and writing/typing some instant reaction notes (forgive any typos) to what I’m re-reading and then publishing that full 2021 game recap for LAC from each week of 2021 season WITH the 2022 reaction notes.

We’ll start with Week 1 and go through each game week, one game post per day for the next 16-17 days.

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‍

Big win for the Chargers!

And I’m not impressed at all.

The Chargers raced out to a 24-0 lead, getting several breaks along the way and then Cincy watching one of their top defenders get carted off (Logan Wilson)…it was just NOT the Bengals’ day. It looked like it might be 50-0 Chargers by halftime.

And then the next thing you know the Bengals are mounting a comeback, cutting the game to 24-22 despite Burrow throwing the ball with 4 good fingers and 1 bad one. It was an embarrassing display by LAC…one of the worst performing teams in the NFL, considering all their talent. They let an injured, bewildered Cincy team waltz right back in this game that they had them down by 24-zip in.

As the Bengals were about to take the lead, in the 3rd-quarter (potentially), there was an Mixon fumble that went right to a speeding LAC defender who grabbed and kept running and that kinda broke the momentum. LAC scored another TD soon after to put it out of reach. The Bengals kept fighting…they just dug themselves so many holes, and Burrow wasn’t 100%.

If they played this game again with a healthy Burrow…I’d take Cincinnati without hesitation. The Bengals are a better executing, tougher team than the Chargers. The Chargers have more talent, the Bengals have more grit and heart.

The Chargers get a win to jump to (7-5). Facing NYG this week and HOU Week 16…LAC should have 9 wins in the bag. They just need one win vs. KC-LV-DEN to get to 10 wins and a wild card. They should do that. Week 15 they face KC in a game where the winner has control of the division…the game at LA on TNF. That’s going to be a great watch…I’m not sure which sadder, underperforming team will win – LAC or KC. I hope LAC, but I assume KC.

This loss hurt Cincy, now (7-5)…with a win they could’ve taken over 1st-place in the AFC North. No easy games ahead for Cincy, and now Burrow with a sore hand…if the Bengals can slip by SF this week, I think they can take the AFC North at 9 wins, possibly getting to 10 wins to lock it up. But Baltimore still looms large at 8 wins…but the Ravens could seriously lose out with their schedule.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = So many things to unpack here.

1) This is where the world got back on LAC...and easy opponent next week and then the showdown with KC. This was also where the world turned on Cincy...for losing in a humiliating way.

But...this is where we went the opposite way. This was where I realized the Bengals were one of the best teams in the AFC, and definitely better than LAC despite the big loss and we were ahead of that curve on the Cincy run the rest of the season.

2) The loss of Logan Wilson was so big for Cincy...arguably their heart & soul of the defense. They shook that off and went on a run ahead (and eventually getting Wilson back later season) all the way to the Super Bowl.

3) I noted that the Ravens' schedule might have them lose out from Week 14 on...they lost their last 5 games and went from first to worst in the AFC North.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m worried about Joe Burrow’s (24-40 for 300 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) hand for Week 14. Hell, I’m not sure he’s even going to be able to play Week 14.

I will say this – Burrow is one tough son of a bitch. He took his battered hand out there series after series and gave it all he had. He tried taping his fingers, and just ripped it off and threw it away. Ditto trying a glove. He just went out and took hit after hit and dove headfirst into tacklers on running plays, etc., trying to will this team to victory. 11 QB hits. 6 sacks. Shaking his hand off to try and shake away the pain in-between plays most of the 2nd-half. It was a tough day at the office for Burrow.

And he almost pulled off the win too.

Burrow was not able to put all the mustard on the ball he could but then he just switched gears to throwing softer with anticipation of where the receiver would be versus firing rockets. One of the low key most impressive QB performances of 2021.

I know Justin Herbert (26-35 for 317 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is bigger physically, with a bigger arm, and plays in super cool LA and in a dome…he’s fantastic and the better Fantasy asset, but he ain’t a better QB/football player than Joe Burrow.

Burrow probably should take a week off, but I suspect we’ll see Burrow out there Week 14 because he’s a gamer.

If Brandon Allen does play instead of Burrow, just know he isn’t a bad QB at all. There’s a drop off but it’s not like a Jake Fromm, etc., nightmare. Allen is very capable.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Burrow grinded in an OT loss to SF the following week and then he won his next 6 starts, leading Cincy to the Super Bowl.

‍

 -- Everything about this game could be summed up on a play early in this game…

The Bengals down a couple scores and a bit shell shocked right away, and then Burrow unleashed a bomb on the money, in stride to Ja’Marr Chase (5-52-0/8) with him having a 2-yard lead on the CB to catch it in stride and race for the score. Chase clutched it, tried accelerating too soon, bobbled the ball out of his clutches…bobbled it right to the cornerback like he was soft tossing it to him – a 50+ yard TD strike turned interception. That’s the kind of day it was for the Bengals.

I’m telling you the Bengals were the better team here. Don’t get down on Cincy and don’t think LAC is ‘fixed’ from this game.

 -- Tee Higgins (9-138-/14) is becoming Burrow’s go-to, because Joey B. is not dumb. He knows who can catch the ball.

Last two games for Higgins: 7.5 rec. (11.0 targets), 126.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Higgins had stretches where he carried the WR group and he finished as a WR1 in PPG PPR, along with Chase.

‍

 -- Justin Herbert may be without his top two WRs Week 14, due to COVID. Who will he turn to in a worst-case scenario (both out)?

Jalen Guyton (4-90-1/4) has been the #3 WR all season, so he has the time/relationship…and he had a nice FF game here – but it was bolstered by a jump ball, 50/50 heave by Herbert…to Guyton for some reason, who actually got position on the DB, and the CB mistimed the incoming pass, and Guyton wound up with it in his hands already in the end zone for a 44-yard score. That type of thing isn’t normal for Guyton.

Josh Palmer (0-0-0/1) is CLEARLY the better WR but he’s a mostly ignored #4 WR. However, they can’t ignore him if Allen-Williams are gone. I like Palmer to emerge with the better FF game, if the nightmare scenario happens…but that’s a gamble not a guarantee.

The reality is, it would probably mean more catches spread to the TEs and Guyton may get another homerun ball TD, but Palmer leads in catches with no TDs. It’s a gamble on what really will happen, there’s no precedent for it.

Side note: Mike Williams (5-110-0/7) continues to be the most physically dominant WR of 2021. How his numbers are not double what they are is an indictment of this fledgling O-C.

 -- Justin Jackson (6-15-0) got a lot of touches for a #2 RB…he’s today’s ‘handcuff’ for Ekeler. We’ll see who it is tomorrow. The fact that LAC isn’t scouring for veteran RBs or poaching them off practice squads, so that they don’t burn out Ekeler…it just shows the negligence the team is being run with.

If they are done with Josh Kelley, and Rountree/Bradwell are nothing, and JJax is always hurt…then they could go to the Saints and pluck Josh Adams away. They could go to the Panthers and snatch Reggie Bonnafon, to name a few…do something…anything but stick with the fledgling lot they’ve been rotating all season. Do they want to win the AFC West or not? What if Ekeler goes down?

LAC is going to blow a golden opportunity to win the West because of bad management blowing this very good roster.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = I forgot about the week LAC thought they'd play without Keenan/Mike. Williams got cleared last second and Guyton and Palmer had nice games and scored a TD with Keenan out.

‍

 -- The Bengals lost Logan Wilson for the season in this game, a huge blow…the linebacker leader. Germaine Pratt (9 tackles) is probably the ‘winner’ for more snaps/playing time in his stead. Joe Bachie (9 tackles) might kinda come out of nowhere to play a lot more snaps.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = Pratt ripped off a string of high tackle counts with Wilson out: 9-9-15-6 total tackles from Weeks 13-16...then he got hurt and was lost for the season, but Wilson returned just as Pratt disappeared and saved the day on defense.

‍

 -- I like the LAC-DST schedule ahead, but is this a good defense to try and rely on?

This defense is…

#7 best in pass yards per game allowed

#6t in passing TDs allowed

#17 in sacks

#6 in QB pressures

Their problem is…

#31 in rushing yards per game allowed

#28 in rush ypc allowed

#30 in rushing TDs allowed

#31 (worst) in missed tackles

Hard to pass on/good pass defense metrics, somewhat due to teams bypassing the air and just attacking them via the ground. But they’re much improved against the run the past 4 weeks as guys get healthy, and they make changes.

You know what their biggest issue is? They have not faced a team with a current losing record this season. The Giants (4-8) Week 14 will be their easiest matchup of 2021…14 weeks into the season. It’s like some of your FF teams that scored high but constantly played the week’s top scoring teams and you wound up scrambling to get into the playoffs, or out of the playoffs…all due to schedule. Schedule has a lot to do with all the metrics and analysis in football, but it’s rarely broached…instead, all data is lumped in the same/equal weight by opponent most often.

LAC-DST gets NYG Week 14, HOU Week 16, and DEN Week 17…those are all good matchups…especially if Jake Fromm and Davis Mills Weeks 14 and 16. That’s why I’m pushing this defense…gambling blind a bit – we don’t know how they’ll do with easier matchups.

LAC-DST held down WSH Week 1. Did fairly well vs. DEN Week 12. Just 14pts allowed to LV Week 4. Gave up 37 points to PIT on SNF Week 11 but allowed just 300 total yards in a fluke fest for PIT scoring.

I believe there is DST hope here with LAC, but I will be holding my breath like the rest of us watching them in my starting lineup.

‍*2022 JUNE NOTE = LAC would have a nice game v. NYG but gave up late garbage scores to ruin it. They would get squashed by Davis Mills, but then squash the Broncos Week 16. Overall, too wobbly a finish to rely on.

‍

Snap Counts of Interest:

73 = Chase

60 = Tee H

57 = Boyd

56 = Big Mike

53 = Keenan

34 = Guyton

22 = J Palmer

35 = J Cook

22 = Stv Anderson

16 = Parham

16 = McKitty

47 = Ekeler

16 = JJax

02 = Kelley

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‍

‍

FFM/CFM Daily Summary...July 2, 2022/Saturday

‍

‍

Items posted so far today...  

‍

-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB Anthony Richardson, Florida   

‍

-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB Cameron Ward, Washington State

‍

-- 2022 Mock Draft 2.0 (PPR, 4pts pass TD, Flex, 17 rounds, #10 slot)

‍

*Our summer Devy series begins July 1st and two-a-days Devy reports runs throughout July.

‍

‍

‍

*Watch or Listen to the Tuesday Night Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available after the show closes on Tuesday night.*

‍

‍

‍

*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*

‍

‍

‍

======================================================================

*The 2022 FFM Draft Guide Package and In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*

Our annual Draft Guide package will be available for early signup June 7th starting at noon.

-Our Draft Guide program goes from June-to-Sept. kickoff -- constantly updating our computer model’s top 600 offensive player and top 500+ IDP rankings/valuations with 400+ player commentaries on their outlook/schedule/depth chart and more analyzed through a variety of scoring systems.

-As always, our popular market reports… Our ever-updating all preseason Overvalued and Undervalued player value reports -- a ranking and commentary on the greatest bargains or player-avoids for the upcoming redraft, best ball, etc., season.

-We’ve added a new report to the Draft Guide package this year – The Freakshow report…highlighting and discussing some players to consider who defy ADPs (and logic sometimes). Several late redraft and best ball grabs discussed – we rank them and have commentary on their freakiness/value. A few obvious names, and some players way off-the-grid.

-All our usual reports and rankings plus special access to all our other special reports, insider intel, and a host of other tools and materials.

-You can sign up for our In-season coverage and rankings/analysis at the same time…for a combo price/discount.

In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.

-Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription is still available, as well as our College Football Metrics subscription focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.

========================================================================

‍

‍

‍

FFM/CFM Daily Summary...July 1, 2022/Friday

‍

‍

Items posted so far today...  

‍

-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio St

‍

-- 2022 Devy Preview Scouting Series (for 2023+): QB Bryce Young, Alabama

‍

-- 2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Broncos 28, Chargers 13 (posting 11amET)

‍

*Our summer Devy series begins July 1st and two-a-days Devy reports runs throughout July.

‍

‍

‍

*Watch or Listen to the Tuesday Night Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available after the show closes on Tuesday night.*

‍

‍

‍

*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*

‍

‍

‍

======================================================================

*The 2022 FFM Draft Guide Package and In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*

Our annual Draft Guide package will be available for early signup June 7th starting at noon.

-Our Draft Guide program goes from June-to-Sept. kickoff -- constantly updating our computer model’s top 600 offensive player and top 500+ IDP rankings/valuations with 400+ player commentaries on their outlook/schedule/depth chart and more analyzed through a variety of scoring systems.

-As always, our popular market reports… Our ever-updating all preseason Overvalued and Undervalued player value reports -- a ranking and commentary on the greatest bargains or player-avoids for the upcoming redraft, best ball, etc., season.

-We’ve added a new report to the Draft Guide package this year – The Freakshow report…highlighting and discussing some players to consider who defy ADPs (and logic sometimes). Several late redraft and best ball grabs discussed – we rank them and have commentary on their freakiness/value. A few obvious names, and some players way off-the-grid.

-All our usual reports and rankings plus special access to all our other special reports, insider intel, and a host of other tools and materials.

-You can sign up for our In-season coverage and rankings/analysis at the same time…for a combo price/discount.

In-Season coverage starts out with some material in August, but then takes off with the regular season start – weekly rankings, all the games of the week scouted and analyzed and reported out on each week, video shows/discussions, sit/starts, trade scenarios (buy low, sell high), and all things involved with going through the Fantasy Football campaign.

-Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription is still available, as well as our College Football Metrics subscription focused on all the rookie scouting and Dynasty Rookie Rankings (top 350 with IDPs) and more.

========================================================================

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Broncos 28, Chargers 13

I’ve started re-reading back through my 2021 game reports looking for good and bad scouting instincts on things I might have lost track of, whether for Fantasy or just the team in general. I especially wanted to focus on the L.A. Chargers’ 2021 season…because my first computer simulation of the season showed them as the 2022 Super Bowl champs. From not making the playoffs in 2021 to the Super Bowl in 2022.

The Chargers didn’t change their coaching staff this offseason and they didn’t overhaul much of their offensive core, but they have dramatically boosted their defense this offseason. So, in theory, this team should be gelling and taking a step forward from a 9-win team last season to what I think will be a division winner and serious Super Bowl contender this season. At a minimum, it’s a playoff team (if Herbert stays healthy).

For some summer reading material, I’ll be looking back at my Chargers’ game reports from last season week-by-week and writing/typing some instant reaction notes (forgive any typos) to what I’m re-reading and then publishing that full 2021 game recap for LAC from each week of 2021 season WITH the 2022 reaction notes.

We’ll start with Week 1 and go through each game week, one game post per day for the next 16-17 days.

‍

‍

Completely embarrassing…

This Chargers team is totally embarrassing.

Of all the teams in the NFL, when you look at the roster of talent, and the talent-level at the key positions (QB and O-L) of all NFL teams and search for what team has the most talent but its results are way off the talent grade – the Chargers have to be the #1 gap, the top ‘letdown’ of the 2021 NFL season to date.

The Chargers are the most talented team in the AFC West, and they are headed to a last place finish in the division at this rate. Why? You have to blame the coaching staff. It’s the only reason one could put their finger on as to why a top 10 roster is playing like a bottom 10 team.

The problem was on full display in this game. Denver played with energy…flying around to the ball on defense. Jumping up and down, high fiving after good plays. There was an energy. The Chargers play like they’re reading the newspaper on a Sunday morning. No real energy. No grit. Just comfortably going through the motions.

The two Los Angeles based teams have the same issue – super smart coach who is so smart and so professional and so well-spoken that it’s possible that they have no real connection with the team, and they have/acquired/don’t groom players who are not leaders on the field to generate that fire (it’s all we can assume from watching them play). *2022 JUNE NOTE = Well, one of the L.A. coaches had this issue last year...

If I were Brandon Staley, if I lose Week 13 at Cincinnati…I’d fire my O-C and D-C on Monday, in order to try and salvage the season. This is the most talented, and the most limp offense in the NFL (among the talented teams) – how do you ruin/butcher Justin Herbert? How do you make him worse in year two…worse than when he was with awful/no help Anthony Lynn? It’s happening right before our eyes. LAC still has time to get their S together and get into the playoffs and be a dangerous team – but at this rate they are going to finish last in the division, out of the playoffs. Denver and Las Vegas should not be better than the Chargers, but they are…and it’s not a talent issue, it's a passion and grit issue. The Chargers are SAWFT like the Rams, and as the season goes on…the sawft are getting sawfter. https://youtu.be/c78FOIsS5fw

I don’t mean to take away from the Broncos, they kicked the Chargers arse from the opening bell. Hell, they had to play Drew Lock for a stretch with Teddy in doubt to return…and the Chargers never took advantage of the cold-incoming-QB, and the Broncos never quit under the curveball loss of their leader. Good for the gritty Broncos…they’ve had so much bad luck the last two years under Vic Fangio, so many last-minute losses, it looks like Fangio is saving his job. If he can just get to 2022 and team up with Aaron Rodgers… *2022 JUNE NOTE = Fangio didn't make it to 2022...and Rodgers didn't head west...

Denver is now (6-5)…tied for 2nd in the AFC West…and tied for last. They have a monster turning point game with KC on SNF Week 13, which they’ll likely lose and then everyone will be back to freaking out wanting to fire Fangio at season’s end again. We see Denver ending with 8-9 wins, and possibly a wild card. The jury is still out. *2022 JUNE NOTE = The did lose to KC, on their way to a 7 win season and everyone fired.

The Chargers blew a chance to tie for the AFC West lead and are now (6-5). If they lose at Cincy this week, all hell should break loose and they’re going to have to scramble their way to 9 wins and a wild card at best. However, if they go and right the ship, take out Cincy and get to (7-5), then beat NYG the following week to get to (8-5)…then it’s a Week 15 showdown where LAC can host KC and take back everything they frittered away the past several weeks. Week 13 at cold Cincinnati is a huge test for the SAWFT Chargers. I think they’ll get that win and have a shot to turn things around and get to 10 wins and a wild card, at least.

 *2022 JUNE NOTE = LAC went out and wrecked future Super Bowl team Cincy the following week. They then walloped NYG the week after. The ship was righted heading to a Week 15 showdown with KC for the AFC West title...and they had that game, abut blew it and they collapsed from there.

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Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- How do you ruin Justin Herbert (28-44 for 303 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs)? Seriously…how? He’s so good, but this offense is so stagnant. Guys are barely open…defenders are running the WR’s routes for them it’s so predictable. If I were Brandon Staley, I’d fire my O-C today…I wouldn’t give him a chance to fix this. I could coordinate the LAC offense with Herbert at QB, and I don’t know what I’m doing.

In my opinion, they are playing the wrong players in so many spots it’s not even funny.

They have tried to push the worst RB in the NFL on and off all season…Larry Rountree. They coulda been trying out D’Onta Foreman or any number of waiver wire RBs for months, but they usually stick with Rountree and always hurt Justin Jackson or stop-starting playing time with Joshua Kelley.

They play ancient Jared Cook (2-25-1/5) and deemphasize the mismatch nightmare Donald Parham (1-5-0/1).

They play awful Jalen Guyton (2-23-0/3) more and deemphasize the clearly superior rookie Joshua Palmer (2-25-0/2).

They should start Palmer, and not-start Parham but let Cook have that ceremonial title but then play Parham more snaps -- and thus try and change this offensive dynamic. If they don’t make changes for this massive Week 13 at Cincy, then I don’t know what will force them to after this embarrassing performance.

They have the talent. It’s all fixable. I just don’t know that they can figure it out…because they are all so smart, they are also stubborn and stuck in their ways…like 99% of NFL coaches.

 -- Mike Williams’ (4-39-0/8) plight is emblematic of the LAC problem. To me, watching all the game tape of every game every week, there is no more impressive WR than Mike Williams in 2021. Physically dominant. In the best shape and movement skills of his life. His first few weeks of play was MVP-like. Now, they are pained to get him the ball.

A top five QB…a top five WR…and they cannot figure out how to pitch-and-catch with him and dominate with him, when they had prior. Something has been figured out by defenses…it’s on the O-C to make a change, and he hasn’t.

All I can tell you is, if you own Big Mike…you gotta stick with him to the death. He’s working too well on-field, with too good a QB. If it fails, blame me…blame your sins that God is punishing you through Fantasy Football for. He’s too good to bench. Kyle Pitts is similar, too good to bench…but now it is OK to bench him because he is too easy to double and his QB is a piece of literal garbage. While Williams has an elite QB talent he works with…just pray it works out.

 -- Courtland Sutton (2-17-0/3) is in that same debate. He’s so good, but his FF results are so $#!& lately. What do you do?

Kyle Pitts is a TE1 talent working in a TE3 offensive scheme with a QB3 to work with surrounded by WR2s and 3s to try and help Pitts, which is little help to him getting freed up.

Mike Williams is a WR1 talent working in a WR3 offensive scheme with a QB1 to work with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler around to help take pressure off, even though most teams try and shut down Williams, he’s still open enough. If the offensive scheme component changes back to the early season success…everything else is wonderful.

Sutton is as talented as Big Mike…a WR1 talent working in a WR3 offense because they want to run the ball and works with a QB2-3 safe-player QB who loves to handoff and checkdown…not a help to Sutton’s output.

The case against Sutton = the situation around him stinks for FF purposes.

The case for Sutton = he’s a WR1 talent that can get hot and make plays by sheer force/will. Kendrick Bourne and Russell Gage, etc., are all hopeful WRs who might be better to start Week 13 than Sutton…but they aren’t better WRs than Sutton, not even close.

So…what wins out this week – talent or situation among the WR crowd trying to replace your Sutton problem? You pick your poison. I can’t tell you should hold Sutton any longer, but I can't tell you Gage-Bourne-AJGreen are definitely better options…they might be, but I know they aren't better WR talents.

*2022 JUNE NOTE = The sentiment on Pitts-Mike-Sutton here pretty much carried through to the end of the season, aside from a splash moment or two.

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 -- I don’t comment much on Austin Ekeler (12-31-0, 6-68-1/8) because what else is there to say? A great RB performer for Fantasy.

What I did not quite fully realize is…did you see how many TDs he has this season? 7 rushing + 7 receiving. Wow! 14 TDs in 11 games. The new Christian McCaffrey without all the injuries (which means next week…pop goes the hammy).

LAC did elevate RB Darius Bradwell (0-0-0/1) last week…a big, bruising D’Onta Foreman-like RB. He played a few snaps and dropped a pass. No signs of anything happening here after his minor debut, but at least he made the main roster. Let’s see if he is elevated again this week and actually gets a carry or two.

 -- Teddy Bridgewater’s (11-18 for 129 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-10-1) last four games: 0.75 passing TDs and 204.3 passing yards per game. How is Courtland Sutton or anyone else going to thrive with that? Denver is (3-1) in that span…this is the way they want to win.

Teddy has played 11 games this season, he has 0-1 TD pass AND less than 250 yards passing in the same game six of the 11 games.

That’s your case AGAINST Sutton week-to-week.

 -- This passing game drop is also taking a toll on Noah Fant (3-12-0/4)…that and the rise of Albert O. (1-12-0/2) sucking away some touches.

As Denver wins with the run game, those last 4 games where Teddy has no passing stats of note, Fant has no TDs, 3.8 catches per game, and just 29.5 yards per game.

 -- I will say it every week, every day, until you get sick of it…

The #1 young player trading under his real value (and he’s not cheap) is Javonte Williams (14-54-1, 3-57-0/4). He will be a franchise RB in 2022+. Imagine if Aaron Rodgers is at QB in 2022!

 *2022 JUNE NOTE = All you can do is imagine, but Russ might be even better news for Javonte.

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 -- The Denver-DST has held its last four opponents to 17 or fewer points…including Dallas. They play KC this week – a huge test. The Chiefs offense looks about as disjointed as the Chargers offense does. If Denver goes and thumps Mahomes…man, the media love next week for AFC West leaders Denver will be insane.

You can’t use their DST v. KC this week, but Week 14 v. DET is sweet. CIN-LV-LAC Weeks 15-17 might be OK, but not optimal.

 -- Rookie SAF Caden Sterns (1 tackle, 1 PD) played 100% of the snaps in place of Kareem Jackson…part of the reason why LAC’s passing game sputtered. Sterns is just a really good, smart safety…BUT I expected some better IDP numbers here and didn’t get them. He was in coverage a lot.

 -- Kyzir White (12 tackles) is the man at LB for LAC, and Kenneth Murray (1 tackle) has died off as a now part-time player.

Not only has Brandon Staley ruined Justin Herbert so far, now he’s ruining a great college LB who was a 1st-round pick, a Staley predicted star upon his arrival, a team leader – it’s all thrown away by Staley. Further cause to make me want nothing to do with the McVay-Shanahan coaching tree. I’m willing to see if Staley turns it around, because I think he is a good coach – but he’s sinking right now.

 *2022 JUNE NOTE = Staley gets his last chance in 2022 to prove to me he knows how to run an entire team.

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 -- I believe the Chargers have good defensive personnel but between health (many guys in and out the past several weeks) and schedule and coaching…and the fact they are #32 against the run and aren’t getting any better fixing that (more Staley and staff issues)…this defense looks good in spurts but never puts it all together.

I still think there is hope here. Not to play this week at CIN, but as a pairing for anyone with the Arizona-DST to finish out the season…as LAC is likely on every waiver wire out there.

ARI + LAC…

Week 13 = ARI at CHI

Week 14 = LAC v. NYG (ARI v. LAR)

Week 15 = ARI at DET

Week 16 = LAC at HOU (ARI v. IND)

Week 17 = LAC v. DEN (ARI at DAL)

If LAC’s defense gets fully healthy, and the offense turns up, given the matchups…it might be a real Week 16-17 opportunity for those heading to the playoffs/finals.

 *2022 JUNE NOTE = it worked, in retrospect except for Week 16...Houston bullied them.

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Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Fant

28 = Albert O.

36 = Javonte

26 = Gordon

48 = Ekeler

16 = Kelley

07 = Bradwell

61 = Allen, MK Williams

39 = Guyton

30 = Palmer

37 = Cook

28 = Parham

21 = McKitty 

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FFM/CFM Daily Summary...June 30, 2022/Thursday

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Items posted so far today...  

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-- NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report: OLB Quay Walker, Georgia

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-- 2022 REWIND: 2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Chargers 41, Steelers 37 (posting 11amET)

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*Our summer Devy series begins July 1st and two-a-days Devy reports runs throughout July.

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*Watch or Listen to the Tuesday Night Video Q&A on-demand anytime...available after the show closes on Tuesday night.*

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*Download the Free FFM App and enable notifications to get notice of articles/reports/rankings when they post...and for any hot football news we have ahead of anyone else (reserved for special occasion things we have ahead, and notifying of every football news thing under the sun).*

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*The 2022 FFM Draft Guide Package and In-Season Coverage Sign-Ups*

Our annual Draft Guide package will be available for early signup June 7th starting at noon.

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-As always, our popular market reports… Our ever-updating all preseason Overvalued and Undervalued player value reports -- a ranking and commentary on the greatest bargains or player-avoids for the upcoming redraft, best ball, etc., season.

-We’ve added a new report to the Draft Guide package this year – The Freakshow report…highlighting and discussing some players to consider who defy ADPs (and logic sometimes). Several late redraft and best ball grabs discussed – we rank them and have commentary on their freakiness/value. A few obvious names, and some players way off-the-grid.

-All our usual reports and rankings plus special access to all our other special reports, insider intel, and a host of other tools and materials.

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